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Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin (BTC) broke down from a short-term ascending wedge.
- Bitcoin trades below the $91,500 horizontal resistance area.
- Is Bitcoin’s bounce over, and if so, how much further will the price drop?
Bitcoin’s latest bounce may already be running out of steam.
After failing to reclaim a critical resistance level, BTC is flashing multiple bearish signals that suggest the recent recovery may have been only temporary.
With momentum rolling over and downside targets coming into focus, traders are now asking a familiar question: Why is Bitcoin going down again?
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Bitcoin’s weekly time frame price action shows a nearly 30% decline since its all-time high of $126,269.
The decline caused a crash below the $91,500 horizontal area, which had been in place for a year.
Over the last three weeks, the price of Bitcoin made three unsuccessful attempts to reclaim this area (red icon).
However, the bulls were unsuccessful. Last week, the price of Bitcoin created a large bearish candlestick.
The inability to reclaim this area confirms that bears are in control, and this week could bring another Bitcoin price crash.
Will Bitcoin Keep Going Down?
Momentum indicators confirm that the breakdown is the most likely future movement.
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) generated a bearish divergence.
- The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) did the same.
- Both indicators are in negative territory.
Combined with the price action, the RSI and MACD readings confirm that the next move is likely to be downward.
This week, the most likely future Bitcoin prediction is a 15% crash to the $77,000 horizontal support area, possibly deviating below it.
While another crash is the most likely future movement, the main question is what will happen afterward.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
The wave count suggests that the Bitcoin decline is in its final leg.
The BTC price initiated a five-wave downward movement (red) following the all-time high.
If the count is accurate, the ongoing bounce was the completed wave four.
Hence, wave five is likely underway.
The most likely target for its conclusion is between $70,100 and $72,000.
The target is created by:
- 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement (black).
- Giving wave five 1.61 times the length of wave one (red).
Once the Bitcoin price reaches that level, a massive bounce could occur.
Reasons For the BTC Price Decrease
One contributing factor to the decline could be Wintermute’s dumping of $1.5 billion in Bitcoin.
According to Marusha, Wintermute is doing this to cover its previous losses.
The Wintermute sale has likely added pressure to an already bearish market, causing the most recent decrease.
Well-known analyst XForceGlobal has tweeted a bearish wave count, which predicts that wave five will end near $71,000.
“The final stretch? There is really no way to count it if we are using the context of all surrounding waves — it still seems like an incomplete 5-wave impulse… the current data that’s part of a C wave, of a larger Expanded Flat.”
Analyst Peter Brand has one of the most bearish takes of all . He tweeted that breaks of the parabolic ascending support trend line have led to massive crashes before.
If a similar decrease occurs this time, Bitcoin could fall to $25,240, he stated.
Therefore, the technical analysis, news, and sentiment for Bitcoin are all bearish.
December Will be Bearish
Bitcoin’s failure to reclaim $91,500 has shifted the balance decisively back in favor of the bears.
With momentum weakening and wave structure indicating a lower trajectory, BTC appears vulnerable to another sharp decline before any meaningful recovery can begin.
Until key resistance is reclaimed, the path of least resistance remains down.
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The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.