This post was originally published on this site.
Bitcoin
plunged 6.4% to an intraday low of $83,383 on Thursday, January 29, 2026, its
lowest level in more than two months, as Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $1.1
billion in weekly outflows and traders repositioned for further downside amid
rare earth tariff tensions and Fed uncertainty.
The selloff
triggered $319 million in liquidations and pushed 97% of expiring call options
out-of-the-money, signaling a decisive shift in market sentiment.
In this
article I am answering the question of why Bitcoin is going down today,
analyzing BTC/USDT chart and checking the newest Bitcoin price predictions.
Bitcoin (BTC) is
trading at $3,728 after touching an intraday low of $83,383 on Thursday, the
lowest price since November 21 and a stunning reversal from Tuesday’s high near
$90,400. The 6.4% decline came swiftly as Bitcoin started the day at $90,315
before sellers overwhelmed the market.
The selloff
extended across the entire cryptocurrency sector, with 90 of the top 100
digital assets trading in the red:
|
Cryptocurrency |
Current Price |
24-Hour Change |
|
Bitcoin |
$83,890 |
-5.7% |
|
Ethereum |
$2,942 |
-6.0% |
|
Solana |
$122 |
-3.4% |
Daily
trading volume surged to approximately $48-49 billion as the
selloff accelerated, suggesting forced liquidations and rapid unwinding of
leveraged positions. Bitcoin’s total market capitalization fell to about $1.69-1.72
trillion, down approximately 4-5% on the day.
Why Bitcoin Is Falling? Five
Key Drivers Behind Today’s Selloff
1. Massive ETF Outflows
Hit $1.1 Billion
Bitcoin
spot ETFs recorded -$1,137.4 million in net outflows over five
consecutive trading days from January 20-26, marking the heaviest weekly exodus
since early January.
Daily ETF Outflow Breakdown:
- January
20: -$204.1M - January
21: -$309.5M - January 22: -$527.9M (peak selling day)
- January
23: -$22.3M - January
26: -$73.5M
The
outflows were highly concentrated in three major products accounting for
approximately 92% of total exits:
- Fidelity
FBTC: -$757.20M - Grayscale
GBTC: -$289.8-408.10M - BlackRock
IBIT: -$508.7M - Ark
21Shares ARKB: -$48.90M
This
concentration suggests institutional repositioning rather than
broad retail panic—larger allocators who “tend to move first and move
size” are reducing Bitcoin exposure.
2. Capital Rotation to
Precious Metals
According
to Paul Howard, Director at Wincent: “Cryptocurrency markets have been the
victim of risk capital flowing into the still popular commodities trade. We
have seen large inflows and trades in perpetual tokenized gold, silver and
uranium products. This has attracted capital and trading away from the crypto
spot majors.”
The
numbers tell the story:
- Gold: Surged
past $5,600 per ounce (up 30% YTD) - Silver: Hit record high of $120 per
ounce (up 65% in January alone) - Bitcoin:
Down 33% from October’s $126,000 peak
XTB analyst
notes: “ETF outflows, limited buying activity from Bitcoin-accumulating
companies, and disappointing BTC performance compared to indices or precious
metals are causing global capital’s attention to shift away from crypto.”
3. Rare Earth Tariffs
Spike Volatility
The US
announcement of price floors for rare earth minerals triggered a sharp increase
in crypto market volatility . Howard explains: “Volatility has picked up
and is now trading above 40 (following the US’s statement on price floors for
rare earths). This headline added to the 5% sell-off the last 24h catching some
by surprise.”
The tariff
concerns echo previous market disruptions when Trump’s threats of 100% tariffs
on Chinese goods and China’s rare earth export restrictions sent shockwaves
through risk assets in late 2025.
4. Federal Reserve Holds
Rates, Uncertainty Persists
The Federal
Reserve held interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% at
Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, but provided limited clarity on future rate cuts.
Chairman Jerome Powell’s cautious stance disappointed traders hoping for more
dovish signals.
The
combination of persistent Fed hawkishness and escalating geopolitical tensions
dampened investor appetite for riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin’s
correlation with traditional risk assets reasserted itself after months of
divergence.
5. Options Market Shows
Bearish Positioning
A
staggering $9 billion in Bitcoin options expire on January 30, but
Howard notes this “reflects <1% of BTC market cap and is not so
significant compared to quarterly expiries”.
What
matters more is the positioning:
- 97% of call option notional likely to expire
out-of-the-money - Nearly 50% of put options now in-the-money
- Elevated volume in January 88k and 85k
puts - February $105k calls became the 3rd most
actively traded contract on Deribit—suggesting traders hedging or hoping
for recovery
“Today’s
downside movement has further hurt those holding calls,” Howard explains.
“We now see repositioning for more downside in the crypto majors as
demonstrated by the volume in the Jan 88k and 85k puts at 88k.”
The
outlook, he adds, “indicates what a lot of crypto traders are feeling
right now, that their market is long overdue a commodity style catchup.”
Liquidation Cascade: $319
Million Wiped Out
The sharp
price decline triggered a massive liquidation event totaling $319.25
million across major cryptocurrency assets.
Liquidation Breakdown:
- Long
positions liquidated: $307.59M (96.3%) - Short
positions liquidated: $11.66M (3.7%)
The
overwhelming dominance of long liquidations indicates bullish traders were
caught off-guard by the speed and magnitude of the reversal. Many had
positioned for continued upside after Bitcoin briefly cleared $90,000 earlier
in the week, only to see those positions forcibly closed as prices plunged
through stop-loss levels.
Technical Analysis:
Testing Critical Support
As a
technical analyst, I’ve identified that Bitcoin is currently testing the lower
boundary of the consolidation range established since November 2025.
The intraday low of $83,383 represents the lowest value in
over two months and a critical test of support.
Why Bitcoin price is going down today? Source: Tradingview.com
Current Technical Picture
According
to the XTB analyst: “RSI is slipping toward 35, suggesting conditions
increasingly close to oversold, and on MACD we see another bearish crossover.
Price is currently traded about 20% below the 200-session EMA200 (red
line), and the decline was recently halted at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
of the decline from October 2025 (from around $126,000).”
Key Technical Indicators:
- RSI:
Approaching 35 (oversold territory) - MACD:
Bearish crossover confirmed - Distance
from 200 EMA: -20% - Fibonacci: Held at 38.2% retracement
($83k-84k zone)
Support and Resistance Levels
|
Level |
Type |
Significance |
|
$100,000 |
Psychological resistance |
Round number, sentiment marker |
|
$98,000 |
Critical resistance |
200-day |
|
$94,000 |
Resistance |
Upper consolidation boundary |
|
$91,000 |
Resistance |
23.6% Fibonacci, EMA50 |
|
$83,383 |
Current test |
Intraday low, consolidation support |
|
$79,000-80,000 |
Major support |
October 2025 correction lows |
|
$75,000 |
Next support |
April 2025 panic selloff level |
|
$74,000 |
Target 1 |
Author’s |
|
$52,000 |
Target 2 |
Ultra-bearish |
The XTB
analyst notes: “Key resistance is currently around $91,000 (23.6%
Fibonacci and EMA50, orange line), while key support is $79-80,000 i.e.
‘correction bottom’ from October. The next important support is $75,000 i.e.
levels from the panic selloff in April 2025.”
How Low Can Bitcoin Go?
From my
analysis, the trend remains clearly bearish with the upper
consolidation boundary around $94,000 and the critical 200-day
moving average serving as the boundary separating uptrend from downtrend at
approximately $98,000.
Bitcoin has
now reached my short-term bearish target with two additional
objectives ahead:
- Primary
target: Around $74,000 - Ultra-bearish target: Around $52,000 (based on
halving cycle theory)
The current
test of the lower consolidation boundary could bring a rebound similar
to mid-December, when Bitcoin bounced from comparable levels. However, for
Bitcoin to return to a bullish trend, it would need to break above the
current consolidation and reclaim the 200-day EMA, returning to at least
$98,000, ideally above the psychological $100,000 level.
If Bitcoin
fails to reclaim these levels, I
will continue targeting at least $74,000.
Follow
me on X for more Bitcoin and crypto market analysis: @ChmielDk
FAQ, Bitcoin Price Analysis
Why is Bitcoin going down
today?
Bitcoin
dropped 6.4% to $83,383 on January 29, 2026, due to five consecutive days of
ETF outflows totaling $1.137 billion, capital rotation into surging precious
metals (gold $5,600, silver $120), US rare earth tariff announcements spiking
volatility above 40, and bearish options market positioning with 97% of calls
out-of-the-money.
What is the Bitcoin price
now?
Bitcoin is
trading at $84,233-84,623 as of Thursday, January 29, 2026, after hitting an
intraday low of $83,383, the lowest level since November, representing a 33%
decline from October’s $126,000 peak.
Why is crypto crashing
today?
The broader
crypto market is down due to institutional repositioning (concentrated exits
from three major ETFs representing 92% of outflows), Fed maintaining rates at
3.50%-3.75% without dovish guidance, geopolitical tensions, and capital flowing
into precious metals which are significantly outperforming cryptocurrencies.
Will Bitcoin fall to
$70,000?
Technical
analysis suggests Bitcoin has reached a short-term bearish target at $83k with
additional targets at $74,000 and an ultra-bearish scenario at $52,000 if the
halving cycle peak occurred in October 2025. Key support at $79,000-80,000 and
$75,000 must hold to prevent further declines.
Should I buy Bitcoin now?
Bitcoin is
testing critical support at $83,000-84,000 with RSI approaching oversold levels
(35) and trading 20% below its 200-day EMA, conditions that historically
preceded rebounds like December’s bounce from similar levels. However, the
trend remains bearish with potential targets at $74k-$52k if support fails.
Bitcoin
plunged 6.4% to an intraday low of $83,383 on Thursday, January 29, 2026, its
lowest level in more than two months, as Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $1.1
billion in weekly outflows and traders repositioned for further downside amid
rare earth tariff tensions and Fed uncertainty.
The selloff
triggered $319 million in liquidations and pushed 97% of expiring call options
out-of-the-money, signaling a decisive shift in market sentiment.
In this
article I am answering the question of why Bitcoin is going down today,
analyzing BTC/USDT chart and checking the newest Bitcoin price predictions.
Bitcoin (BTC) is
trading at $3,728 after touching an intraday low of $83,383 on Thursday, the
lowest price since November 21 and a stunning reversal from Tuesday’s high near
$90,400. The 6.4% decline came swiftly as Bitcoin started the day at $90,315
before sellers overwhelmed the market.
The selloff
extended across the entire cryptocurrency sector, with 90 of the top 100
digital assets trading in the red:
|
Cryptocurrency |
Current Price |
24-Hour Change |
|
Bitcoin |
$83,890 |
-5.7% |
|
Ethereum |
$2,942 |
-6.0% |
|
Solana |
$122 |
-3.4% |
Daily
trading volume surged to approximately $48-49 billion as the
selloff accelerated, suggesting forced liquidations and rapid unwinding of
leveraged positions. Bitcoin’s total market capitalization fell to about $1.69-1.72
trillion, down approximately 4-5% on the day.
Why Bitcoin Is Falling? Five
Key Drivers Behind Today’s Selloff
1. Massive ETF Outflows
Hit $1.1 Billion
Bitcoin
spot ETFs recorded -$1,137.4 million in net outflows over five
consecutive trading days from January 20-26, marking the heaviest weekly exodus
since early January.
Daily ETF Outflow Breakdown:
- January
20: -$204.1M - January
21: -$309.5M - January 22: -$527.9M (peak selling day)
- January
23: -$22.3M - January
26: -$73.5M
The
outflows were highly concentrated in three major products accounting for
approximately 92% of total exits:
- Fidelity
FBTC: -$757.20M - Grayscale
GBTC: -$289.8-408.10M - BlackRock
IBIT: -$508.7M - Ark
21Shares ARKB: -$48.90M
This
concentration suggests institutional repositioning rather than
broad retail panic—larger allocators who “tend to move first and move
size” are reducing Bitcoin exposure.
2. Capital Rotation to
Precious Metals
According
to Paul Howard, Director at Wincent: “Cryptocurrency markets have been the
victim of risk capital flowing into the still popular commodities trade. We
have seen large inflows and trades in perpetual tokenized gold, silver and
uranium products. This has attracted capital and trading away from the crypto
spot majors.”
The
numbers tell the story:
- Gold: Surged
past $5,600 per ounce (up 30% YTD) - Silver: Hit record high of $120 per
ounce (up 65% in January alone) - Bitcoin:
Down 33% from October’s $126,000 peak
XTB analyst
notes: “ETF outflows, limited buying activity from Bitcoin-accumulating
companies, and disappointing BTC performance compared to indices or precious
metals are causing global capital’s attention to shift away from crypto.”
3. Rare Earth Tariffs
Spike Volatility
The US
announcement of price floors for rare earth minerals triggered a sharp increase
in crypto market volatility . Howard explains: “Volatility has picked up
and is now trading above 40 (following the US’s statement on price floors for
rare earths). This headline added to the 5% sell-off the last 24h catching some
by surprise.”
The tariff
concerns echo previous market disruptions when Trump’s threats of 100% tariffs
on Chinese goods and China’s rare earth export restrictions sent shockwaves
through risk assets in late 2025.
4. Federal Reserve Holds
Rates, Uncertainty Persists
The Federal
Reserve held interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% at
Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, but provided limited clarity on future rate cuts.
Chairman Jerome Powell’s cautious stance disappointed traders hoping for more
dovish signals.
The
combination of persistent Fed hawkishness and escalating geopolitical tensions
dampened investor appetite for riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin’s
correlation with traditional risk assets reasserted itself after months of
divergence.
5. Options Market Shows
Bearish Positioning
A
staggering $9 billion in Bitcoin options expire on January 30, but
Howard notes this “reflects <1% of BTC market cap and is not so
significant compared to quarterly expiries”.
What
matters more is the positioning:
- 97% of call option notional likely to expire
out-of-the-money - Nearly 50% of put options now in-the-money
- Elevated volume in January 88k and 85k
puts - February $105k calls became the 3rd most
actively traded contract on Deribit—suggesting traders hedging or hoping
for recovery
“Today’s
downside movement has further hurt those holding calls,” Howard explains.
“We now see repositioning for more downside in the crypto majors as
demonstrated by the volume in the Jan 88k and 85k puts at 88k.”
The
outlook, he adds, “indicates what a lot of crypto traders are feeling
right now, that their market is long overdue a commodity style catchup.”
Liquidation Cascade: $319
Million Wiped Out
The sharp
price decline triggered a massive liquidation event totaling $319.25
million across major cryptocurrency assets.
Liquidation Breakdown:
- Long
positions liquidated: $307.59M (96.3%) - Short
positions liquidated: $11.66M (3.7%)
The
overwhelming dominance of long liquidations indicates bullish traders were
caught off-guard by the speed and magnitude of the reversal. Many had
positioned for continued upside after Bitcoin briefly cleared $90,000 earlier
in the week, only to see those positions forcibly closed as prices plunged
through stop-loss levels.
Technical Analysis:
Testing Critical Support
As a
technical analyst, I’ve identified that Bitcoin is currently testing the lower
boundary of the consolidation range established since November 2025.
The intraday low of $83,383 represents the lowest value in
over two months and a critical test of support.
Why Bitcoin price is going down today? Source: Tradingview.com
Current Technical Picture
According
to the XTB analyst: “RSI is slipping toward 35, suggesting conditions
increasingly close to oversold, and on MACD we see another bearish crossover.
Price is currently traded about 20% below the 200-session EMA200 (red
line), and the decline was recently halted at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
of the decline from October 2025 (from around $126,000).”
Key Technical Indicators:
- RSI:
Approaching 35 (oversold territory) - MACD:
Bearish crossover confirmed - Distance
from 200 EMA: -20% - Fibonacci: Held at 38.2% retracement
($83k-84k zone)
Support and Resistance Levels
|
Level |
Type |
Significance |
|
$100,000 |
Psychological resistance |
Round number, sentiment marker |
|
$98,000 |
Critical resistance |
200-day |
|
$94,000 |
Resistance |
Upper consolidation boundary |
|
$91,000 |
Resistance |
23.6% Fibonacci, EMA50 |
|
$83,383 |
Current test |
Intraday low, consolidation support |
|
$79,000-80,000 |
Major support |
October 2025 correction lows |
|
$75,000 |
Next support |
April 2025 panic selloff level |
|
$74,000 |
Target 1 |
Author’s |
|
$52,000 |
Target 2 |
Ultra-bearish |
The XTB
analyst notes: “Key resistance is currently around $91,000 (23.6%
Fibonacci and EMA50, orange line), while key support is $79-80,000 i.e.
‘correction bottom’ from October. The next important support is $75,000 i.e.
levels from the panic selloff in April 2025.”
How Low Can Bitcoin Go?
From my
analysis, the trend remains clearly bearish with the upper
consolidation boundary around $94,000 and the critical 200-day
moving average serving as the boundary separating uptrend from downtrend at
approximately $98,000.
Bitcoin has
now reached my short-term bearish target with two additional
objectives ahead:
- Primary
target: Around $74,000 - Ultra-bearish target: Around $52,000 (based on
halving cycle theory)
The current
test of the lower consolidation boundary could bring a rebound similar
to mid-December, when Bitcoin bounced from comparable levels. However, for
Bitcoin to return to a bullish trend, it would need to break above the
current consolidation and reclaim the 200-day EMA, returning to at least
$98,000, ideally above the psychological $100,000 level.
If Bitcoin
fails to reclaim these levels, I
will continue targeting at least $74,000.
Follow
me on X for more Bitcoin and crypto market analysis: @ChmielDk
FAQ, Bitcoin Price Analysis
Why is Bitcoin going down
today?
Bitcoin
dropped 6.4% to $83,383 on January 29, 2026, due to five consecutive days of
ETF outflows totaling $1.137 billion, capital rotation into surging precious
metals (gold $5,600, silver $120), US rare earth tariff announcements spiking
volatility above 40, and bearish options market positioning with 97% of calls
out-of-the-money.
What is the Bitcoin price
now?
Bitcoin is
trading at $84,233-84,623 as of Thursday, January 29, 2026, after hitting an
intraday low of $83,383, the lowest level since November, representing a 33%
decline from October’s $126,000 peak.
Why is crypto crashing
today?
The broader
crypto market is down due to institutional repositioning (concentrated exits
from three major ETFs representing 92% of outflows), Fed maintaining rates at
3.50%-3.75% without dovish guidance, geopolitical tensions, and capital flowing
into precious metals which are significantly outperforming cryptocurrencies.
Will Bitcoin fall to
$70,000?
Technical
analysis suggests Bitcoin has reached a short-term bearish target at $83k with
additional targets at $74,000 and an ultra-bearish scenario at $52,000 if the
halving cycle peak occurred in October 2025. Key support at $79,000-80,000 and
$75,000 must hold to prevent further declines.
Should I buy Bitcoin now?
Bitcoin is
testing critical support at $83,000-84,000 with RSI approaching oversold levels
(35) and trading 20% below its 200-day EMA, conditions that historically
preceded rebounds like December’s bounce from similar levels. However, the
trend remains bearish with potential targets at $74k-$52k if support fails.