What we’re hearing around MLB: Cubs in mix for Bregman and Bichette, Mets working trade market

Some team is going to sign Kyle Tucker. Ditto for Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette and Cody Bellinger. But most of the teams pursuing those hitters are among the game’s biggest spenders. For those clubs, the cost of adding a premium free agent will be approximately double the player’s salary.

Consider Tucker, whose contract might carry an average annual value of $40 million (The Athletic’s Tim Britton projected him to receive a $38.3 million AAV in a 12-year deal).

Any team that exceeds the base luxury-tax threshold for three or more consecutive years pays a 50 percent penalty for every dollar it goes above. Any team that exceeds the base threshold by $60 million or more pays an additional 60 percent surcharge.

The Los Angeles Dodgers qualify on both counts, so their penalty for signing Tucker or any of the other remaining free agents would be 110 percent. At a $40 million AAV, Tucker would cost them $84 million. At a $35 million AAV, the number would be a mere $73.5 million.

Not that the Dodgers necessarily care – they paid a record $169.4 million in tax after winning their second straight World Series title.

Their signing of free-agent closer Edwin Díaz, whose AAV after deferrals is $21.1 million, will cost them $44.3 million annually.

The Toronto Blue Jays, a team known to be pursuing Tucker, already are above the highest threshold. But as a two-time luxury-tax offender, their penalty rate would be 90 percent. A $40 million AAV for Tucker would cost them $76 million.

Three other teams – the New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees – are one major move away from the 110 percent bracket. The Phillies, within $4 million of the highest threshold, are closest, per Fangraphs. If they re-sign free-agent catcher J.T. Realmuto, they would pay 110 percent on most of his salary. If they added a top free agent on top of that, they would pay the full 110 percent. But after this season, they will gain considerable payroll flexibility.

The league and players essentially split luxury-tax proceeds. The tax obviously is only so much of a deterrent, an issue low-payroll clubs surely will want to address in collective bargaining if the sport continues without a salary cap. But the additional cost could be contributing to the delay in some of the top free agents signing.

For at least some of the game’s top spenders, every dollar counts.

Cubs in mix for Bregman and Bichette

Another reason for the logjam in free agency might be the reluctance of certain players to sign before others they are competing with in the market – a dynamic possibly in play with Tucker and Bellinger, Bregman and Bichette, Framber Valdez and Ranger Suárez.

Bregman, who turns 32 in March, is four years older than Bichette, but a number of teams view his leadership as a difference-maker. The Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs are among the teams talking to both players, according to people briefed on the conversations. The Blue Jays have been in touch with both, too, but now appear more focused on Tucker.

The Cubs’ interest in Bichette, first reported by Jon Heyman, stems from their desire to upgrade at third base – something the signing of Bregman also would accomplish.

Adding either player would create the potential for the Cubs to trade second baseman Nico Hoerner and move Matt Shaw from third to second. The Cubs also could keep Hoerner and make Shaw a superutility player, an alignment that would give them a better chance to win unless they dealt Hoerner for a quality starting pitcher.

Hoerner, 28, is set to earn $12 million in his final season before free agency. To this point, the Cubs have not fully explored his trade market. With so many infielders available – Bregman and Bichette in free agency, St. Louis’ Brendan Donovan and Arizona’s Ketel Marte in trade – teams are weighing multiple options. And the Cubs need not move Hoerner until they have greater clarity at third.

A better idea for the Cubs might be to extend Hoerner, who is coming off his best season and beloved in their clubhouse. The team has only $39 million committed for 2027 – $28 million for shortstop Dansby Swanson, $6 million for reliever Phil Maton, the rest in potential buyouts.

In addition to Bregman and Bichette, the Cubs continue to pursue a starting pitcher in both free agency and trade.

The delay on Donovan

Why have the Cardinals not yet traded Donovan, the player who can bring them the most in a deal? It comes down to a difference in perceived value. The Cardinals view Donovan as a star player while not all clubs see him that way, according to people briefed on the conversations.

Donovan, who turns 29 this month, offers many appealing qualities, from his swing decisions to his bat-to-ball skills, his defensive versatility to his makeup. But his career-best fWAR, achieved in 2024, was 3.2. Hoerner was at 4.8 last season, Marte at 4.6 – the latter in only 126 games.

Donovan also is under club control for only two more seasons, the second of which is threatened by a lockout. The Kansas City Royals remain among the teams interested, but if the Cardinals prefer premium young bats, the Seattle Mariners are perhaps the best fit.

Mets working trade market

The Mets hold some interest in the top remaining free-agent starters, including Valdez, but their focus is on first exploring trades, league sources said.

As of early Tuesday, no deal appeared imminent and people familiar with the discussions cautioned that things are slow.

The Mets are interested in both rentals and pitchers with club control. Thus, Tarik Skubal (Detroit Tigers), Freddy Peralta (Milwaukee Brewers), MacKenzie Gore (Washington Nationals), Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins), Kris Bubic (Kansas City Royals) and Brady Singer (Cincinnati Reds) are all among the conceivable options.

The Mets boast one of the top farm systems. They are also open to dealing infielders Mark Vientos, Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuña.

Orioles would punt another pick

Back in November, Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias signaled a shift in direction, saying he was “fully prepared” to forfeit draft pick(s) to sign free agents who rejected qualifying offers.

Just over a month later, the Orioles sacrificed a pick, but not for a free agent. They included one in their trade for right-hander Shane Baz – their Competitive Balance Round A selection, which is likely to be No. 34 overall.

The Orioles, though, are willing to lose another pick, knowing that will be part of the calculus if they sign Valdez or Suárez. As a revenue-sharing recipient, they would lose only their third-highest selection. They did not forfeit a pick for signing first baseman Pete Alonso, who was ineligible for a second qualifying offer after receiving one from the Mets last offseason.

The Orioles hold the seventh overall selection. Their second choice is likely to be No. 47. The pick they would lose is likely to be No. 85 – not high enough to be a deal-breaker for a potential top-of-the-rotation starter.

Justin Wilson mulling retirement

Veteran pitcher Justin Wilson, perhaps the best lefty reliever available in free agency, is considering retirement, league sources said. It is unlikely Wilson, 38, pitches in 2026 unless it is on a fair deal with a legitimate World Series contender. One major accomplishment that has eluded Wilson — who starred in the College World Series for winner Fresno State in 2008 — is a World Series ring.

Wilson produced a 3.38 ERA over 61 appearances last season with the Boston Red Sox, which lost to the New York Yankees in the Wild Card Series. Over his 13-year career in the major leagues, Wilson owns a 3.59 ERA/3.51 FIP.

With or without Wilson, Danny Coulombe is right at the top of the list of available lefty relievers, too. Coulombe, 36, is engaged with five teams, league sources said.

White Sox interested in Canning

In the market for another pitcher on a one-year deal, the Chicago White Sox expressed interest in late December in right-hander Griffin Canning, league sources said.

So far this offseason, Chicago has added lefties Sean Newcomb (one-year deal) and Anthony Kay (two-year contract). The rest of the rotation is set to feature Shane Smith, Davis Martin and Sean Burke. Newcomb can either start or appear out of the bullpen.

Canning is generating interest from other teams as well. A ruptured left Achilles tendon last June derailed Canning’s solid season with the New York Mets. Canning, 29, had a 3.77 ERA/4.04 FIP in 76 1/3 innings (16 starts).

With Allen, Brewers ahead of the curve

The Milwaukee Brewers got off to a head start on the trend of college coaches jumping to the major leagues when they hired Spencer Allen as a field coordinator ahead of the 2022 season. Allen, who spent the prior six seasons as Northwestern’s head coach, then became the Brewers’ director of player development, a position he held the last two years.

In a move that received high marks around the industry on Monday, Milwaukee announced Allen’s promotion to the major-league staff as first base coach.

Allen, 48, is widely regarded as a candidate for a managerial job or bench coach spot down the road. Other clubs held interest in hiring Allen away from the Brewers, league sources said. His calling cards as a coach are base running and defense.