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Three years ago, Ja Morant was the most electric guard the NBA had seen since Allen Iverson and the Grizzlies seemed like the NBA’s next great contender. But after a bizarre string of gun incidents and a long list of injuries, Ja is now a distressed asset being discussed like an albatross contract, not a franchise cornerstone.
But what is Morant actually worth? That’s the big question with Memphis now willing to listen to offers for Ja.
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Morant had his flaws even during his back-to-back All-Star seasons with iffy defense, a shaky jumper and good but not outstanding passing. Those skills have regressed since. And as speedy as he is, he hasn’t quite learned how to fully utilize that to his advantage because he lollygags up the floor or record-scratches plays in the half-court. For a player who’s so fast, he often moves slow.
Ja Morant’s time in Memphis appears to be coming to a close. (Petre Thomas-Imagn Images)
(IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect / REUTERS)
To make matters worse, Morant has been less willing to use his athleticism to score at the rim, in part to protect himself from hard falls and further injuries. Over his first 12 games this season, he was getting to the rim at a career-low rate. Only 18% of his shots came in the restricted area and 31% of his shots came from 3-point range. But he shot 3s horribly; at one point, he had more air balls than he had made baskets. Morant’s burst was gone and he was being dared to shoot jumpers, before a suspension for throwing his coach under the bus and a calf strain knocked him out for a month.
Since his return, he’s played in only six games as he’s still managing the calf injury. But he had a 40-point game, his numbers are way up, and he looks more like the past version of himself:
Morant is taking 36% of his shots at the rim and only 17% of his shots from 3. That’s aligned with his shot distribution during his two All-Star seasons. And his scoring efficiency is separated by only decimal points from that peak as well. It’s a teeny-tiny sample of just six games, but it’s at least one positive data point in a season otherwise full of red flags. And that glimmer of hope might be all a team really needs to go for it.
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Morant is making $39.5 million this season and then will make $43.5 million annually over the next two seasons. It’s a big chunk of the salary cap for a player who’s played in only 77 of his last 203 possible games.
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NBA sources don’t expect Morant’s market to be too much different than it was for Trae Young, who was dealt to the Wizards for just an expiring contract in CJ McCollum and a solid role player in Corey Kispert. But the Hawks preferred short-term or expiring deals. Memphis is taking the opposite approach: Executives around the league say the Grizzlies are signaling a willingness to take on bad contracts, if it means being compensated with young players or picks. But the Grizzlies aren’t going to get that much for Morant. Think pick swaps, not unprotected firsts. Think moderate bets on rookie contracts, not exciting young players. Even getting those assets might require Memphis to take on bad money in return.
There are only three kinds of Ja buyers: stuck-in-the-middle teams hunting a shortcut, desperate franchises and gamblers that think their structure can fix any talent. With that in mind, here are six trade ideas:
Kings get: Ja Morant
Grizzlies get: DeMar DeRozan, Devin Carter, Dario Šarić, two future first-round pick swaps
Why they do it: The Kings are stuck in the mud and they know it. And they need a star. Plus, they’re so early in their rebuild that they can afford to whiff. If they hit a home run they’ll look like geniuses for getting Ja for so cheap. Who knows? Morant could benefit from being around a guy like Russell Westbrook. Maybe it’s worth it for SacTown.
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Why they don’t: Swapping out an old veteran who shows up for a young veteran who often doesn’t may not be the best way to build culture. And though Carter has struggled so far in his career, he’s still only in his second year — just like Tyrese Haliburton was when he got dealt. Giving up Carter, and any future draft capital, could simply end up a loss on a risky investment.
Suns get: Ja Morant
Grizzlies get: Jalen Green, 2032 first-round pick swap
Why they do it: Phoenix is 29th in at-rim frequency. The team needs someone who can actually collapse a defense. Ja played his best ball next to Dillon Brooks, and Brooks is currently the heart of this surging Suns team. Maybe he’d help him tap into a new chapter of his prime again.
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Why they don’t: Green is younger and cheaper, and for a team that’s already short on assets it may not make any sense to give up on any unless it’s more of a sure thing.
Morant and Dillon Brooks were teammates in Memphis. Could they reunite in Phoenix? (Photo by Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images)
(NBAE via Getty Images)
Raptors get: Ja Morant
Grizzlies get: Immanuel Quickley, Gradey Dick, one first-round pick swap
Why they do it: The Raptors were already in on the Trae Young sweepstakes, so maybe they’d be willing to go for Morant too. They’re in need of another creator to take the pressure off Scottie Barnes. The Kawhi Leonard swing also showed this franchise will rent volatility if the upside is real.
Why they don’t: The fit is a disaster. The best version of Ja lives in the paint. But so does Scottie. Neither is a knockdown shooter. Trae made some sense because of his perimeter-oriented game, but Morant doesn’t.
Bucks get: Ja Morant
Grizzlies get: Kyle Kuzma, Bobby Portis, two first-round pick swaps
Why they do it: The Giannis Antetokounmpo era might have four months left. Adding Ja is the ultimate Hail Mary to convince Giannis that they are still trying to win. And if Ja does return to form, this could be the gamble that pays off and gives Giannis a teammate who can actually generate any offense.
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Why they don’t: You’re trading for a shaky shooter who has played in only 38% of his games over the last three seasons. If Giannis leaves anyway, you’re stuck paying Ja to lead a 20-win team in an empty arena.
Heat get: Ja Morant
Grizzlies get: Terry Rozier, Simone Fontecchio, two first-round pick swaps
Why they do it: This is Pat Riley saying “I can fix him.” They ship out Rozier’s expiring contract and gambling-investigation headache for a guy who was All-NBA just a few years ago.
Why they don’t: Sending a guy with Morant’s habits to South Beach seems like a horrible idea. Plus, the Heat run an offense influenced by Noah LaRoche, the same guy who inspired the no-screens offense that Ja hated and led to the Grizzlies coaching staff getting fired less than one year ago.
Wolves get: Ja Morant, Jock Landale, Scotty Pippen, Vincent Williams
Grizzlies get: Naz Reid, Donte DiVincenzo, Mike Conley, Joan Beringer, 2032 swap
Why they do it: As Andrew Sharp said on my podcast: This trade is “the best construction of what might still be a bad idea.” You raise your ceiling with Morant, Pippen as a versatile guard, Landale as a hard-nosed big man, and Williams as a versatile wing. This is a gamble that Ja can return close to form, but also a reshuffling of the supporting cast around the big three of Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert.
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Why they don’t: Ja’s salary would require a big shake-up to the roster to make any deal work financially. Chemistry could collapse midseason. Plus, Morant could step on Ant’s toes. Edwards would ideally have a co-star in the backcourt that can thrive without the ball, like Conley and DiVincenzo do. So rather than bet the whole franchise on Ja’s availability, a bet that has failed for three years running, going for just Pippen or another mid-level point guard who can shoot could be far more sensible.
You can talk yourself into other teams as a Ja suitor. Maybe the Nets just want to take the risk. Maybe the Cavs want a shake-up from Darius Garland. Maybe the Bulls want to replace Coby White. But it’s a lot easier to talk yourself out of Morant for any of these aforementioned teams, given the way his career has unfolded and where it appears likely to go from here.
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History is littered with these types of “distressed asset” superstars. Most of them aren’t still just 26 years old though. But Morant’s story is starting to feel like the speed-run version of the Iverson career arc. Once A.I. was traded from Denver to Detroit at age 33, it was suddenly apparent that it was already over. Small guards can hit a cliff fast when the body begins to fail. So even if there’s a chance Ja has more left in the tank, there’s a far higher probability that the team trading for him is just taking a massive loss on the investment.
Some fixer-uppers are worth the risk, though. The Bucks might be that desperate. The Heat might be that confident. The Wolves might be that ballsy. All it takes is one owner to think he’s getting a franchise-changing asset for 12 cents on the dollar and ignore the possibility that Ja may have already hit the Iverson-in-Detroit phase.