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Container import volumes at major U.S. ports are expected to remain below year-ago levels through at least May, as slowing global trade growth, economic headwinds, and ongoing policy uncertainty weigh on demand, according to forecasts released this week.
The National Retail Federation’s Global Port Tracker projects January will deliver the first month-over-month increase in six months, with volumes rising to 2.11 million TEU as retailers rush shipments ahead of February’s Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia. Even so, the figure is still 5.3% lower than January 2025.
“There should be a brief bump in imports this month ahead of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia, but we’re otherwise headed into the post-holiday shipping lull that comes each year,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy. Gold added that retailers are seeking “more stability and certainty, especially regarding tariffs and trade policy, in 2026 to help ensure better supply chain operations to meet consumer needs.”
The slowdown is expected to extend through the spring. February volumes are forecast at 1.94 million TEU, down 4.6% year over year, followed by 1.88 million TEU in March, a steep 12.4% decline. April is projected at 2.03 million TEU, down 8.1%, before May finally marks the first year-over-year gain since last August, rising 6.2% to 2.07 million TEU.
The pullback follows a difficult 2025, when new U.S. tariffs created what Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, called “chronic uncertainty.” Many retailers responded by front-loading imports to get ahead of potential duties. Full-year 2025 volume is forecast at 25.4 million TEU, slightly below 2024’s 25.5 million TEU.
“As 2026 begins, we see a world increasingly focused on protecting domestic industries and addressing perceived trade imbalances,” Hackett said. “This approach has raised questions about the future of free trade and international economic cooperation.”
Those pressures mirror the broader economic backdrop outlined in the United Nations’ World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026 report released on Thursday. The UN projects global economic growth of 2.7% in 2026, down from 2.8% in 2025 and well below the pre-pandemic average of 3.2%.
Although global trade performed better than expected in 2025—boosted in part by early shipments ahead of anticipated tariffs—the UN expects growth to slow in 2026 as those temporary drivers fade and trade barriers persist. Investment remains subdued across most regions as firms remain cautious amid tighter financial conditions.
“For shipping companies and port operators, the message is clear: the temporary boost from front-loaded shipments in 2025 is fading, and the industry must prepare for a more challenging environment characterized by trade fragmentation and policy unpredictability,” the report states.
Adding another layer of uncertainty, the U.S. Supreme Court said it will issue its next opinions on Wednesday, extending speculation over the fate of President Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs. The April 2025 measures imposed duties of 10% to 50% on most imports, with additional levies on Canada, Mexico, and China. During November arguments, justices appeared skeptical of Trump’s authority to impose the tariffs under a 1977 emergency powers law.
The UN warned that without stronger policy coordination and reduced trade uncertainty, the global economy risks being locked into a lower-growth path, calling for greater transparency, predictability, and cooperation in trade policy.
“Even as inflation recedes, high and still rising prices continue to erode the purchasing power of the most vulnerable,” said Li Junhua, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs. Headline inflation is expected to ease to 3.1% in 2026 from 3.4% in 2025, though elevated price levels are still weighing on real incomes.
For the maritime industry, the outlook points to a year defined by fragile demand and shifting trade patterns as tariff battles and economic uncertainty continue to reshape global shipping.
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