Trump tariffs live updates: Wall Street will have to wait longer for a Supreme Court tariff decision

The Supreme Court convened on Wednesday and issued three opinions — but not the one that markets are watching most closely around President Trump’s tariffs.

The rulings concerned issues like warrantless entries, while the tariff decision was put off for another day. The court also issued an opinion last Friday.

The ruling in the tariffs case, formally known as Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, is still expected between now and the end of the court’s session in June. It is centered on the 1977 law called the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which gives the president the ability to declare an economic emergency and take action but doesn’t specifically outline tariffs as a remedy.

Trump and his team had seized on the law to declare a variety of emergencies — over issues ranging from fentanyl to trade imbalances and more — and impose blanket tariffs in response.

Trump set the stage for this week’s decision with weeks of Truth Social posts, including one on Monday declaring that a negative decision would mean “WE’RE SCREWED!”

China’s exports of rare earth materials in 2025 hit the highest level since at least 2014, a sign that Beijing is delivering on its promise, as agreed as part of the one-year trade truce with the US, to start shipping rare earths.

In retaliation for President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, China restricted shipments of several elements in April.

Reuters reports:

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President Trump gave the go-ahead on Tuesday for the sale of Nvidia’s (NVDA) H200 AI chips to China. Nvidia said in a statement that this latest move by Trump “strikes a thoughtful balance that is great for America” and will help the company compete in the global chip market.

However, sources claim that China’s customs department has told agents not to allow the H200 chip into the country.

Reuters reports:

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China has pushed back on Nvidia’s (NVDA) H200 AI chips, with Beijing’s customs department telling agents this week that the chips are not permitted to enter China, according to people familiar with the matter.

The H200 chip from Nvidia is the second most powerful and was approved by the Trump administration for export to China this week. There is strong demand for the chip from Chinese companies, but it is unclear if Beijing is planning restrictions.

Reuters reports:

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Bloomberg News reports:

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The one-year trade truce between the US and China risks derailment after President Trump on Monday announced new tariffs on goods from countries trading with Iran. China, the world’s largest buyer of Iranian oil, could be affected, raising concerns that the move may strain the truce with China’s President Xi Jinping.

These latest threats come a few months after a deal between Washington and Beijing was clinched, which led China to remove export restrictions on rare earths and the US, in return, paused its tariffs on Beijing.

Bloomberg News reports:

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The AP reports:

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President Trump tweeted on Monday:

The move is set to increase pressure on Tehran as its government has faced mass protests in recent days. Trump has threatened military action against Iran, saying the US would hit Iran “very hard” if it continued to use force against protesters.

The order would risk complicating trade relationships with several partners that also trade with Iran. Notably, those countries include China and India.

President Trump on Monday was characteristically blunt as he reemphasized the stakes he sees for his administration and the US as the Supreme Court prepares to rule on the legality of his most sweeping tariffs.

“If the Supreme Court rules against the United States of America on this National Security bonanza, WE’RE SCREWED!” Trump posted on Truth Social.

Trump has gone on the warpath since the case was argued in November, painting the high court’s decision as critical to his economic policy agenda. Both conservative- and liberal-leaning justices asked skeptical questions of the method by which the president imposed his most sweeping duties. Trump imposed his tariffs by invoking a 1977 law meant for national emergencies.

Trump on Monday cited trade agreements the US has struck with a number of countries that have included pledges for the countries to invest in the US. Combined with other potential “refunds” — most prominently to companies that have already sued the government in the lead-up to the Supreme Court’s ruling — Trump said it would add up to a “mess.”

He wrote: “Anybody who says that it can be quickly and easily done would be making a false, inaccurate, or totally misunderstood answer to this very large and complex question. It may not be possible but, if it were, it would be Dollars that would be so large that it would take many years to figure out what number we are talking about and even, who, when, and where, to pay.

The US has announced it will hold a G-7 meeting this week to discuss rare earths, underscoring the need to develop alternative supplies away from China, which currently dominates the industry.

In the recent one-year trade truce established between the US and China last year, Beijing promised to lift export restrictions on rare earth materials. However, China’s spat with Japan has led it to restrict supplies to Tokyo, leading to concerns among other countries that rely on rare earths for crucial technology and automotive components.

Bloomberg News reports:

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Bloomberg News reports:

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European Union countries have approved the Mercosur trade deal with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay, a massive free-trade agreement aimed at countering the EU’s dependence on the US and China for trade, the Wall Street Journal reports:

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The widely expected impact of President Trump’s tariffs on prices for everyday goods imported from overseas has yet to materialize (with some notable exceptions). But as CNN reports, the tariffs have already had a chilling effect on the job market, with job growth at its lowest in decades and unemployment creeping higher

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The Supreme Court said Wednesday, Jan. 14, would be the next time it issues opinions — and therefore the next time it could rule on the tariff case.

Of course, a decision on tariffs is not guaranteed, as today showed. The court simply says that rulings on already argued cases are possible when it sets these dates.

We’ll keep circling these on our calendars!

The Supreme Court did not issue a ruling in the case centered on President Trump’s tariffs on Friday, the first day the high court is in session in 2026.

Market watchers had circled Friday as a potential date for the tariff verdict. But the court issued only one opinion today.

The court is in session next week, though it is unclear when they may next issue rulings.

From Bloomberg:

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The ever-increasing complexity of the US tariff landscape has been in evidence for months, but the dawn of 2026 provides a direct measure of just how much additional paperwork US importers must wade through one year into Trump 2.0.

The benchmark of tariff complexity is the so-called tariff book — formally known as the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States — which is the central reference point for importers on what they have to pay the government.

The “basic” version for 2026 was just released and clocks in at over 4,500 pages. That’s more than 100 pages longer than last year (and an 800-page increase from 2017, when Trump first took office).

It’s just one indicator of the increased complexity that comes with a large dash of uncertainty for businesses so far in 2026 as the Supreme Court weighs how much of this new maze of regulations will pass legal muster.

The looming Supreme Court decision, which could be handed down as soon as Friday morning, is already presenting market risks. The complexity issue comes in addition to the tariffs themselves, which the Yale Budget Lab calculates at an average rate for consumers of 16.8%.

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