This post was originally published on this site.
There has been a lot of discussion this Hot Stove season about trades regarding the Washington Nationals. Not just discussion on TalkNats, but also on the national stage. Some would say that no player has received more trade buzz than MacKenzie Gore. On a more local level, CJ Abrams has received some trade buzz too. The trades that actually got done were both surprises with closer Jose A. Ferrer going to Seattle for catcher Harry Ford, and after that, minor league starter Jake Bennett got traded for minor league starter Luis Perales.
At his point in time, both Gore and Abrams are still with the Nats, and it is looking more likely that neither will be traded before Spring Training camp opens. But — you never know!
It is time to talk about other trade candidates. Two rules:
- If Gore is included in your trade, it has to include another player on the 40-man roster.
- No explanation needed for why you want to trade Gore, but please explain if you do want to trade another player. That subject has been discussed extensively here. He likely will be gone as a FA before the Nats are competitive.
‘The Baseball Trade Values (BTV) site can be used to provide an objective value of a player’s trade value. And yes, we all know and agree that the algorithm the site uses is far from ideal. A free account can be used to search for trades and shows the players involved value. In that past, no account has worked as well.
Let’s get started with this. I will go first.
Don: I am trading Luis Garcia Jr. as my first trade simply because he only has two years of control left, and I don’t think he is that much better than Jose Tena who is out of options and has 5 years of control left. I don’t think he returns much given his BTV value is 9.1. Maybe a relief pitcher or a promising minor leaguer who is a few years away; someone like Argenis Cayama a low minors starter for the Giants. If they fail on trading for Nico Hoerner or Brendan Donovan, maybe they think LG is a short-term option. Perhaps an overpay since Cayama’s BTV value is 7.6. I really don’t much care. I just want to move-on from Garcia.
Steve: I don’t like to force trades. I would try to trade Gore because as I once made clear, the team just doesn’t play well for Gore. It defies logic but that’s an issue when the team has a .333 winning percentage in Gore starts in 2025. That was much worse than the team average. Obviously it is mostly about the lack of Nats’ offense in his starts, and that shouldn’t be on Gore. But they play sloppy behind him also. Too many mistakes.
I would consider trading Garcia in the right structure to allow Nasim Nunez to start. I wouldn’t trade Abrams with 3-years of team control remaining.
Andrew: My thinking usually goes to trading from a surplus to an area of need. That what was so odd about the Ferrer trade for Gore. They say to never fill hole by creating a new hole. Maybe Toboni has a trick up his sleeve.
Steve: I hear you on the Ferrer trade. Obviously the surplus was in the outfield and they moved Alex Call to the Dodgers. Personally, nobody has won a trade with the Dodgers or even broke even. I have a rule that you don’t trade your own players when their value is down. I always hated the trade of Lucas Giolito when his value was down.
Andrew: I agree with that strategy. Where do the Nats have a surplus?
Steve: In lousy starting pitchers and lousy catchers. I guess you could move Jacob Young or Robert Hassell III as an outfielder but both had down years, and you’re better off waiting to see if the new coaching can improve them. Right?
Andrew: I agree and that brings me back to listening on Gore because of his 2-years of team control left, and same with Garcia.
Don: I guess I will join in and not follow the rules listed above. But hey, isn’t that what fans are supposed to do ?. I agree with the main points you each made; trade from surplus; or trade to fill a hole; and last, don’t trade a player when his value is down AND there is a reasonable expectation of a near term rebound.
Steve: I am terrible on following directions.
Don: I get that.
The Nats need pitching and a long-term solution at first base. I only trade Gore if it returns pitching and/or a long term first baseman. And I want to see the return at the MLB level sometime in 2006; at worst in 2007.
Likewise, I have no idea if Garcia just had a down year or is that who he is. That is why I trade him now. See what Tena can; or one of the other middle infielders who are perhaps close enough to give them a shot at the MLB level.
Hassell and Young are two trade candidates. But as you said, they are coming off down years. So I would only trade them if they are an added pieced needed to fill a hole.
Steve: Solid point. If a spare outfielder made a deal work, that is when you do it. Also, don’t you agree that James Wood and Daylen Lile should be off the table? Also on down years, no way you trade Dylan Crews or Brady House.
This feels to me like only Gore and Abrams have trade value, and the clock is really only ticking on Gore. Pay up or you keep him to start Spring Training. Some team competing for the playoffs will lose a key starter to a tear, and all of a sudden, Gore’s value might be greater at that point. Might, and if. That’s the gamble that Paul Toboni is taking. But you also can’t be a pushover. The Edward Cabrera trade showed what Gore is worth, IMHO.
Any final thoughts Don or Andrew?
Andrew: Someone made a smart comment a while back that Toboni has to say no to set-up his future that he is not a pushover. Gore is the best trade chip he has since like you said that Wood and Lile are off the table. For those clamoring for a trade, you just have to keep the faith that Toboni is doing right by his team.
Don: In hindsight, this topic sounded like a good idea until we actually started discussing it. I agree that Wood, Lile, Crews, House, and even Abrams should not be traded. I am also on the fence on Gore. Gore has to bring back almost for sure starting pitching or almost for sure long term a guy for first base. My bottom line is that I will be fine with no trades before opening day.