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Key Takeaways
- Tom Lee says Bitcoin could hit a new all-time high before the end of January 2026.
- His “untapped market” thesis focuses on how many investors still don’t own Bitcoin through brokerage and retirement accounts.
- Lee’s biggest weakness is timing: his 2025 targets were often too aggressive, even when the broader trend went his way.
- BitMine is also buying Ethereum, showing Lee’s bullish crypto view isn’t just about BTC.
BitMine Chairman Tom Lee is making bold Bitcoin predictions once again, claiming: “I do think Bitcoin can make an all-time high (ATH) by the end of January.”
That’s a fast timeline. As of December 18, 2025, Bitcoin is trading in the mid $80,000s, which leaves a large price jump for Bitcoin to cover in such a short time frame. After all, Bitcoin’s ATH is around $126,210, set in October 2025, and a number far higher than today’s price point.
Lee is known for these claims, and yet he isn’t only making Bitcoin headlines. His firm BitMine has also been stacking Ethereum, including a recent purchase valued at $88.73 million worth of ETH.
That move adds another layer to Lee’s “trust his thesis, not his timing” reputation, since he’s spreading his investment bets across major crypto assets while still pitching Bitcoin as the biggest breakout.
The Untapped Market Thesis Behind Tom Lee’s Bitcoin ATH Call
Lee is basing his claims on who hasn’t bought Bitcoin yet. This matters because new buyers can come from places that already have a lot of money, such as institutional investors or those in retirement with traditional brokerage accounts:
- Many people know about Bitcoin, but hold none of it.
- Investors could, of course, buy a small amount through the tools they already use, thanks to mainstream adoption such as ETFs.
- If that small group of investors grows, it can change demand in a massive way.
He states that only about 4 million Bitcoin wallets hold just $10,000 in BTC, while around 900 million IRA and brokerage accounts have the same amount.
This is why ETFs and traditional finance platforms matter to Lee. Many people, especially skeptics, won’t open a crypto exchange app or learn self-custody, but they might buy exposure to Bitcoin the same way they buy stocks or fiat funds.
You can even see this in real-time via flow data, as price movements tend to line up with macro events or when the mainstream gains more access.
It’s also important to note that the number of wallets does not equal the number of people who hold Bitcoin. One person most likely holds many wallets, and even exchanges have multiple wallets to hold all of their crypto.
Tom Lee’s Bitcoin Track Record: Hits and Misses
Tom Lee (Fundstrat) has built a reputation for making big, headline-friendly Bitcoin calls and then revising them as conditions change. In early March 2025, he said Bitcoin could do “better than $150,000” by year-end , framing the drawdown as cyclical rather than structural.
That target proved too ambitious versus what actually happened later in the year.
- Bitcoin did go on to post fresh records in October 2025, printing new all-time highs above $125,000 (reportedly, Bitcoin price reached $125,245 on Oct. 5, and price reached near $125,653 the next day). But the rally faded quickly: a sharp selloff around Oct. 10 wiped out billions from the market, resulting in a weaker finish into the year-end.
- By September 2025, Lee was again on TV with an even more aggressive target, saying Bitcoin could “easily” reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 . And in late November, he publicly softened his earlier $250,000-style upside narrative, telling CNBC that while a blow-off run looked less likely, Bitcoin exceeding $100,000 by year-end still seemed “quite probable,” and a new peak was still possible.
The “miss” side of the ledger is straightforward: Bitcoin did not hold the October highs and was trading well below them in December, with major outlets noting prices roughly 30%+ under the October peak.
The “hit” side is narrower: Lee stayed consistently bullish through drawdowns, and Bitcoin did set new records in 2025, just not anywhere near his upper-end targets.
How Accurate Has Lee Been in 2025 Specifically?
If you grade Lee purely on price targets, 2025 was more directionally right than numerically right. He leaned bullish after early-year weakness, a period when Bitcoin experienced elevated volatility and sharp pullbacks . That stance ran counter to deteriorating sentiment at the time and aligned with his long-held view that drawdowns within a cycle tend to be temporary rather than terminal.
By year’s end, Bitcoin’s peak-to-trough path mattered more than the final print. The asset did reach new all-time highs in early October, validating the broader bullish direction. However, the rally failed to hold, and prices reversed sharply enough that even optimistic commentary in mainstream markets shifted toward a recovery in 2026 rather than sustained upside in 2025.
Where Lee fell short was on magnitude and timing. As mentioned previously, Lee expected Bitcoin to exceed $150,000 by year’s end. By September, that view escalated into claims that $200,000 could be reached easily under the right conditions. As momentum faded, his tone moderated. By late November, he had walked back the earlier moonshot framing, suggesting that a move above $100,000 was a more realistic benchmark for the cycle.
With Bitcoin trading in the high $80,000s to low $90,000s by mid December and still well below its October peak, those 2025 targets now look early at best. The market delivered a new high, but not the sustained upside implied by the more aggressive forecasts and manipulation concerns .
Where Lee’s 2025 commentary arguably aged better is in the mechanism he continues to emphasize rather than the headline numbers. For instance, in his latest forecast, he argued that Bitcoin’s adoption runway could be roughly 200 times larger if even modest allocations flow from retirement accounts and brokerage platforms. His comparison between a few million funded Bitcoin wallets and hundreds of millions of traditional investment accounts highlights an access and distribution gap rather than a short term trading catalyst.
That thesis does not, on its own, confirm a new all time high by January 2026. But it does explain why Lee remains focused on untapped demand even after a sharp post ATH drawdown and why his outlook continues to frame Bitcoin as a market driven by structural access shifts rather than perfect timing on price targets.
What This Means for Bitcoin Investors Heading Into 2026?
Heading into 2026, the biggest lesson to pull from Lee’s approach is that Bitcoin can move very fast, both positively and negatively. Treat forecasts as ideas.
A good example is the market’s reaction to the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), or the monthly report that tracks how everyday prices rise and fall. Traders like watching it because it can change what the Fed might do next, such as cutting interest rates.
In August, Bitcoin dropped a bit as traders took profits due to an expected increase in CPI. Yet, Bitcoin can still go negative even during a bullish CPI. In October 2025, the CPI increase was lower than expected. Bitcoin jumped up shortly afterward, but then lost a lot of its gains after the following Fed rate cuts and liquidation bloodbath.
Put simply, a good headline doesn’t necessarily mean a positive Bitcoin movement.
Should You Trust Tom Lee’s Bitcoin Outlook?
Trust parts of his predictions, but not something to bet your whole investment on.
Lee’s “untapped market” argument seems reasonable long-term, as he states Bitcoin’s potential to grow even if a small amount of brokerage and retirement accounts add exposure to the cryptocurrency over time.
But you should remain cautious of Lee’s exact dates and price predictions. His track-record breakdown shows that many of his bold 2025 projections didn’t land the way he may have wanted, and his calls often change as the market shifts.
Also, Lee doesn’t just talk about Bitcoin. As the Chairman of BitMine, he’s spreading his views across multiple assets, such as Ethereum. So, trust his framework focused on Bitcoin access and inflows/outflows, rather than his timeline.
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FAQs
Did Tom Lee correctly predict Bitcoin’s 2025 all-time high?
Lee did not call the exact timing or level of Bitcoin’s 2025 peak, but he remained bullish ahead of the October breakout that produced a new all-time high. His higher-end targets for late 2025 were not reached, though the broader bullish trend did materialize.
Why does Tom Lee focus on investor access instead of short-term price moves?
Lee argues that long-term Bitcoin price appreciation depends more on who can buy Bitcoin than on short-term market sentiment. He highlights the gap between millions of Bitcoin wallets and hundreds of millions of retirement and brokerage accounts as a structural demand opportunity.
Does Tom Lee’s track record support his January 2026 ATH prediction?
His past calls suggest caution on timing but credibility on trend. While Lee’s price targets have often been aggressive, Bitcoin has repeatedly moved in the direction he anticipated. Whether January 2026 proves accurate remains uncertain, but his thesis is grounded in liquidity and access dynamics rather than a single catalyst.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.