This post was originally published on this site.
If the New York Knicks wants to compete for a championship, their defense has to be better. It really is that simple. Now, the hard part is figuring out how to make the defense better with two bad defensive players (Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns) serving as the core of a top-three offense while sharing the court for over 60% of each other’s minutes.
Towns takes a lot of the heat. Keep what I’m about to say in perspective as the Knicks are still four points better offensively with Towns — a borderline All-Star averaging north of 20 points and 11 rebounds per game — on the floor, but on top of his poor defense and often-foolish fouling, he’s having the worst shooting season of his career.
For these reasons, Towns’ name has been picking up some trade rumor traction ahead of next Thursday’s deadline. The Knicks and Giannis Antetokounmpo clearly have eyes for each other, and if that deal were to go down, Towns would almost certainly be part of it. But earlier this week, veteran NBA reporter Marc Stein said that there is a “persistent belief” among rival teams that Towns could also be available in non-Giannis trades.
But even if Towns were to be dealt, the Knicks would still have a Brunson problem on defense.
Yes, we’re all aware of Brunson’s unimpeachable offensive value. He’s about as good as it gets. But in today’s NBA, the net value of even the most elite offensive points guards is being called into major question if the tradeoff is defensive ineptitude.
Look at Trae Young. He’s one of the best offensive players on earth, and he just got salary dumped to the Wizards. The Bucks are paying Damian Lillard $113 million over the next five seasons to play for someone else. Nobody wants Ja Morant. The Mavericks traded Luka Dončić for crying out loud.
The Knicks are not going to trade Brunson, and this is not a suggestion that they should even consider that, but there is a reason Stein also reported that New York has “explored pathways” to acquire Jrue Holiday. It would be a perfect match. Holiday isn’t just the prototype for the get-over-the-hump player; he’s the actual player who has gotten two teams, the Bucks and Celtics, over the championship hump.
The Knicks have to go up a level if they want to contend, and they have to cover for Brunson defensively. Again, Towns feels like he takes more heat for his defense, at least nationally, but the data says the Knicks are actually significantly more handicapped by Brunson. Just look at the numbers, per Databallr.
|
Towns without Brunson |
112.1 |
|
Brunson without Towns |
120.0 |
All told, the Knicks are +8.7 with Towns and no Brunson and +3.3 with Brunson and no Towns. Of course, the real problem is both of these guys together. It’s likely too high a hurdle to clear if we’re going to have a realistic conversation about title contention.
The Knicks heeded Boston’s championship blueprint by loading up on two-way wings in Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart, and adding their stretch five with Towns in the role of Al Horford/Kristaps Porziņģis, providing space for an elite scorer (Brunson/Jayson Tatum) to exploit. Adding Holiday would damn near be a copy-and-paste job.
The glaring difference, of course, is those Celtics didn’t have any defensive holes. Holiday remains a great defender. But the Knicks have a lot of good defenders right now, and they’re still tripping over the Brunson hurdle.
If the Knicks somehow swung deals for Giannis and Holiday, now we’d be talking something serious. But for now, let’s stay away from the pipe dreams and focus on one question: Can the Knicks win a title with a small, defensively deficient point guard as their best player?
A lot of teams have been asking themselves that question, and they’re pretty much all coming to the same conclusion. Unless your name is Stephen Curry (who actually isn’t a bad defender, to be fair), it’s probably not happening.
The Knicks are going to try to prove otherwise, but the Brunson honeymoon can only last for so long. For a minute, Knicks fans were so happy just to be relevant that Brunson could do no wrong. But now that the conference finals box has been checked and a Finals berth, at minimum, has become the expectation (so stated by the owner), Brunson either has to be better or the Knicks have to be better at covering for him, whether Towns ends up getting traded or not.