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Investment bank Standard Chartered lowered its short-term and full-year price forecasts for major cryptocurrencies, citing continued downside risk as exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows and a challenging macro backdrop pressure the market.
The bank now expects bitcoin to fall to around $50,000 in the coming months, with ether potentially bottoming near $1,400.
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The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading around $67,900 at publication time. Ether, the second-largest, was trading around $1,980.
Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, said the selloff in recent weeks could extend as ETF investors, many sitting on losses, are more likely to reduce exposure than “buy the dip.”
Once prices establish a bottom, Kendrick said, he expects a recovery through the rest of 2026. The analyst reduced his year-end target for bitcoin to $100,000 from $150,000, ether to $4,000 from $7,500, solana to $135 from $250, BNB Chain to $1,050 from $1,755 and to $18 from $100.
The crypto market has weakened sharply in early 2026, with major assets like bitcoin sliding significantly from late-2025 highs and the total market cap down sharply over recent weeks. Bitcoin has dropped almost 23% since the start of the year.
The downturn has been marked by heightened volatility, large liquidations of leveraged positions and broad risk-off sentiment, which has seen crypto correlate more closely with weakening equity markets.
Macro pressures such as concerns about global growth and interest-rate outlooks have pushed investors toward traditional havens like gold, while stalled regulatory clarity, particularly in the U.S., and liquidity strains at some institutions have weighed on confidence. Combined, these forces have led to reduced trading revenues for crypto-exposed firms and bearish sentiment across many tokens.
Holdings of bitcoin ETFs have declined by nearly 100,000 BTC from their October 2025 peak, according to Kendrick. The average ETF purchase price is around $90,000, leaving many investors with unrealized losses of roughly 25%.
Macro conditions are also weighing on sentiment. Kendrick noted that while U.S. economic data show signs of softening, markets expect no interest-rate cuts before Kevin Warsh’s first Federal Open Market Committee meeting as Federal Reserve chair in mid-June, limiting near-term support for risk assets.
Despite the expected capitulation, the bank said the current drawdown is less severe than previous cycles. At its worst point in early February, bitcoin was down about 50% from its October 2025 all-time high, and roughly half of supply remained in profit, declines that are sharp but not as extreme as in prior downturns.
Crucially, this cycle has not seen the collapse of major crypto platforms, unlike 2022’s failures of Terra/Luna and FTX. Kendrick said that suggests the asset class is maturing and more resilient.
The analyst left his longer-term projections unchanged, maintaining end-2030 targets of $500,000 for bitcoin and $40,000 for ether, arguing that usage trends and structural drivers remain intact.
The analyst previously reduced his bullish bitcoin forecasts in December.
Read more: Standard Chartered Throws in the Towel on Bullish Bitcoin Forecast