Red Sox mailbag: Payton Tolle, Connelly Early trade scenarios, Kristian Campbell’s future

In the span of a week, the Boston Red Sox whiffed on signing Alex Bregman only to make a dramatic pivot in bolstering their rotation even further by signing Ranger Suárez to the largest free-agent contract under chief baseball officer Craig Breslow.

January is usually a slow month for baseball, but not in Boston.

With plenty of questions swirling around the team, we figured it was a good time for a mailbag.

What are we doing with all these pitchers? — Matt R.

I dug into this a bit in this piece after the Ranger Suárez news Wednesday, but it seems likely the Red Sox will trade one of their starters for a bat. The rotation features 10 starter options in Suárez, Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello, Sonny Gray, Johan Oviedo, Kutter Crawford, Patrick Sandoval, Connelly Early, Payton Tolle and Kyle Harrison.

Though the Red Sox likely don’t want to include Tolle or Early in trade talks, the addition of Suárez on a five-year deal (rather than a short-term pact) suggests the possibility. Meanwhile, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported that the Red Sox have “quietly shopped” Bello this winter. At 26, the young righty is on an affordable deal, having signed a six-year, $55 million deal in 2024 and making roughly $9 million this season, a bargain for a mid-rotation starter. Sandoval, a veteran starter working his way back from Tommy John surgery, might not fetch as much in a trade but could also be an option to trade for a team looking to add veteran depth. Boston’s depth is enviable and makes it the perfect trade partner.

What are the odds that Jarren Duran is in the lineup on Opening Day vs. being traded between now and the start of spring training. Duran appears to be a great trade chip to help round out the roster, but how serious is the team to play all four outfielders, and find a role for Masataka Yoshida as well? — Anonymous

Piggybacking off the previous question, there’s a real chance of the Red Sox packaging a pitcher along with one of their outfielders for a bat over the next month. Furthering that idea, a team source indicated there’s still an opportunity to trade from the crowded outfield at this point in the offseason. Duran seems the likeliest to be traded, given his $7.7 million salary for 2026 and the fact he’s the oldest of the group while still possessing tools such as speed and power that teams covet. Earlier in the offseason, I would have said a 75 percent chance Duran is on the Opening Day roster; now I’m thinking it’s closer to a 50 percent chance.

The Red Sox had talked much of the offseason about rotating playing time for the four outfielders, with one of them serving as designated hitter, but that doesn’t account for Yoshida’s playing time. The Red Sox would love to find a trade partner for Yoshida (and offload his contract), but they’re likely to get more of an impact bat in trading Duran, Wilyer Abreu or Ceddanne Rafaela along with Tolle or Early. The Arizona Diamondbacks had taken second baseman Ketel Marte off the trade market last week, per Rosenthal, but that was before the Red Sox signed Suárez and now have more flexibility to trade a starter. The Red Sox could entice Arizona with a bigger trade package (Arizona is known to covet Duran and Tolle or Early).

The Red Sox also could try to work a deal with the Chicago Cubs for Nico Hoerner. He’s not a power bat, but he hit .297 and posted a 6.2 bWAR last year and was one of the best defensive second basemen in the league. Adding Hoerner would go a long way in strengthening the infield. Though he’ll be a free agent next year, the Red Sox could sign him to an extension (a la Crochet) as a way to offset whatever they lose in a trade.

Meanwhile, Houston would jump at a chance to acquire Duran in exchange for Isaac Paredes. Though Paredes has decent power with a 115 OPS+ in his career, his defense is below average, so that might be less enticing.

Once there is an additional bat added to the infield (preferably Marte or Paredes), do you think there will be consideration of moving Trevor Story to second or third and installing Marcelo Mayer at short to improve the defense? — John C.

A source within the team recently noted a preference for Mayer at third over second base (barring a trade or signing at third). With that said, the Red Sox highly value Story, who, now with the loss of Alex Bregman and Rob Refsnyder, is their biggest clubhouse leader. Moving him off short would be a tough move, and his defensive lapses late in the season were more because of fatigue after playing a full season for the first time since 2021 rather than diminished abilities at short. It seems the Red Sox like the idea of keeping Mayer on the left side of the infield at third, so when Story’s contract is up after 2027, he can slide to short. I don’t see them moving Story to any other position the next two years.

All the offseason talk has been about improving the offense. What can the Sox do to improve their horrendous defense? — Peter H.

The Red Sox infield is actually a bit stronger than it looks at the moment. We noted the combination of Story at short and Mayer at third, a spot where he played well last year after Bregman’s injury. Willson Contreras posted 6 Outs Above Average last year in his first year at first base and was one of the best defenders in the league at the spot. If the Red Sox added Hoerner, who posted 14 OAA last year at second base, that would further strengthen the club. Even Marte was solid at second with a 1 OAA last year.

How do you expect Kristian Campbell to contribute this year? I read that he only played outfield in Winter League; however, we have plenty of outfield depth and no starting second baseman. Would you expect him to be in the mix for second this spring? — Andrew S.

This was one of several Campbell questions given his uncertain status with the club. Campbell did indeed play only outfield in winter ball, mainly because the Red Sox had him make some swing adjustments to quiet things down at the plate. The idea was to have him focus on getting his swing right rather than worry about shifting positions. A team source noted the long-term plan is still for Campbell to maintain his defensive versatility in the future at second and in the outfield, but they want him to get right offensively first. At the moment, he’s focused on the outfield, and it seems likely he’ll stick there in the spring as he continues to build up reps at the plate with his new swing. That said, the big-league outfield is crowded. If one of the four outfielders is traded, that could open the door for Campbell to serve as a fourth outfielder on the big-league club, but my thought as of now is he’ll start the season in Triple A and be called upon when there’s an inevitable injury. If he tears it up at the plate this spring, however, he could force his way onto the big-league roster sooner.

What are the odds that either Tolle or Early make the Opening Day roster? Do you see Tolle starting in the ‘pen as he did late last season? — Alex G.

If the Red Sox end up trading Bello or another starter and keeping Tolle and Early, I think, given the status of the rotation, both will start the year in the Triple-A rotation. Even without Bello, the Red Sox could turn out Crochet, Suárez, Gray, Crawford and Sandoval. There will be an inevitable injury, and Tolle or Early is likely next in line to be called up when that happens. The Red Sox could slide either Tolle or Early into the bullpen, but I do think the club wants to keep them in the starting rotation for if/when it needs them.

Tolle worked out of the bullpen last year mainly because it was his first full season in pro ball and his innings were creeping up. The club figured his electric stuff would play out of the pen. Now, if there’s an injury in spring training or one of them is lights out this spring, that might change.

As for lefties out of the bullpen, the Red Sox have been very high on Jovani Moran as well as newcomer Tyler Samaniego (acquired alongside Oviedo this offseason). Moran, given his big-league experience, figures to have an upper hand on winning a bullpen spot, but manager Alex Cora has also mentioned relying on their right-handed relievers to get lefty batters out, too.

What is the percentage likelihood that Contreras plays catcher at all this year? Say Triston Casas gets off to a white-hot start and one of Connor Wong or Carlos Narvaez suffers an injury or poor performance? — Chris W.

Casas said at Fenway Fest that though he’s hoping to be ready for Opening Day, it might be too aggressive a timetable, and a return in May is more realistic. Still, even upon his return, he’s likely to take time finding his rhythm. How the Red Sox work out his playing time alongside Contreras will be something to watch, but each figures to get DH at-bats. Now, if Wong or Narvaez gets hurt, it’ll depend on how significant an injury it is. Contreras said on a video call this week with reporters he’s willing to play catcher, where he’s spent the majority of his career before transitioning to first base. He might see some time behind the plate, but the Red Sox prefer him to stick at first base and DH for now.

What are the three best reasons to be optimistic for the 2026 Red Sox? What are you most excited to see? — Jimmy E.

This has been a strange offseason, but for those looking for optimism, there are some intriguing options. Roman Anthony barely scratched the surface of his potential last year, and a full season of what he can do will be the biggest reason to watch. Mayer, too, is likely to have a bigger role this season. After he’s gained weight to prevent further injury, the Red Sox are going to push him to win the third-base job (unless they add a third baseman this spring). Either way, I’m curious to see how he can perform over the course of the season. Crochet was in Cy Young contention last season and seems primed for a similar year. And though I think Early and Tolle will start the year in Triple A, I could see them contributing this summer. Watching them pitch at the end of last season provided some of the best baseball all year.

I’m from New Jersey, a diehard Red Sox fan, and going to my first game at Fenway in April, also doing a stadium tour. Any other suggestions on things to do for a first-timer in the area? — Nick T.

We’ll close out on this question with any commenters feeling free to offer their suggestions. Depending on what time you’re coming in April, the Boston Marathon weekend (April 17-20) is one of the best weekends all year in the city. The Red Sox always host the 11 a.m. Patriots Day game that Monday; this year, they’re hosting the Detroit Tigers. Otherwise, the Freedom Trail is always a cool (and free) walking tour through downtown if you’re into history. The Duck Boat tours are another great way to see the city from land and water (they also have carried every championship team in parades throughout the city since 2001). The Bruins and Celtics will be at the tail end of their regular seasons in April, so you could try to catch a game at the Garden if they’re home. Dinner in the North End is something people always enjoy.