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Key Points
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Bitcoin’s CAGR from August 2017 to November 2025 is a stunning 44%.
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If Bitcoin can grow at a CAGR of 25% over the next five years, it can hit a price of $250,000.
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While Bitcoin has long been a top-performing asset, it is also prone to dramatic boom-and-bust cycles.
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With Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) down 7% in 2025, it’s no surprise that investors and analysts are starting to ratchet down their price targets for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
It’s a stunning turn of events for Bitcoin, which many were expecting to double in value this year, fueled by all the pro-crypto euphoria of the new Trump administration.
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So, where will Bitcoin be in five years? I predict that Bitcoin will reach a price of $250,000 by then, and here’s why.
Bitcoin’s path to $250,000
On the surface, a price tag of $250,000 might sound overly aggressive. Given Bitcoin’s current price of $87,000, it assumes a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 25% for the next five years. That type of sustained growth by any asset is unlikely, to say the least.
Image source: Getty Images.
However, Bitcoin is not your typical asset. In the time period from 2017 to November 2025, Bitcoin actually grew at a CAGR of 44%. During that time period, Bitcoin was the top-performing asset in the world, routinely turning in triple-digit performances.
Heading into 2025, Bitcoin was coming off back-to-back triple-digit performances. In 2023, Bitcoin soared by 157%. In 2024, Bitcoin increased in value by another 125%. So it’s easy to see why many expected Bitcoin to once again double in price in 2025.
What happened to Bitcoin’s $1 million price tag?
Several Wall Street investors and high-profile figures said earlier this year that the price of Bitcoin should reach $1 million by 2030. They used a base price of $100,000 and assumed that Bitcoin was destined to grow at its long-term CAGR of nearly 50%.
Given that Bitcoin had been growing at an exponential rate over the past decade, this didn’t seem like a notable stretch. Just as Bitcoin quickly grew from $1,000 to $10,000, and then from $10,000 to $100,000, it only seemed to be a matter of time before Bitcoin rose from $100,000 to $1 million.
But as they always say in the investment world: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. That’s also the case with Bitcoin. You can’t assume that it will grow at an annual rate of 50% in perpetuity.
The Bitcoin four-year cycle
Moreover, there’s the pesky little matter of the Bitcoin four-year cycle. Simply put, Bitcoin tends to follow a boom-and-bust cycle that lasts approximately four years.
That’s not a statistical aberration, either. Bitcoin has a halving event every four years, and it is precisely this event that seems to kick off the bullish phase of the cycle. After the halving, Bitcoin tends to skyrocket in value for a period of anywhere from 12 to 18 months.
Given that the previous Bitcoin halving took place in April 2024, it’s understandable that Bitcoin is experiencing a moment of turbulence right now. It’s now been more than 18 months since the halving, and Bitcoin might finally be entering the “bust” phase of its four-year cycle.
In the past, Bitcoin has suffered massive drawdowns of 75% or higher during the “bust” phase of the four-year cycle. If that’s the case now, then Bitcoin will need to grow at a higher CAGR to make up for the losses.
Let’s say Bitcoin drops all the way back to $69,000, which was the all-time high from the previous four-year cycle. It would then need to grow at a CAGR of 30% from now on.
But that’s perfectly OK. That’s approximately the CAGR of Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) during the period of 2017 to 2025. At a time when Bitcoin was growing at a CAGR of 44%, Ethereum was growing at a CAGR of 28%.
Bitcoin: $0, $250K, or $1 million?
From my perspective, there are three possible outcomes for Bitcoin over the next five years.
In one scenario, Bitcoin hits a price of $1 million, as some crypto bulls expected earlier this year. That’s the bullish scenario.
In another possible path, Bitcoin hits a price of $250,000. That’s my new base-case analysis — a reasonable middle ground between game-changing gains and total disaster.
The other outcome? It’s almost too terrible to contemplate. It’s the ultra-bearish outcome, in which Bitcoin falls all the way to zero. If that happens, it would be Dutch Tulip Mania all over again. Instead of hoarding worthless tulips, are investors now hoarding worthless digital bits?
Obviously, I’m predicting that Bitcoin will hit $250,000, so I don’t put too much credence in this ultra-bearish scenario. However, I also expect the Bitcoin four-year cycle to repeat, just as it has for the past decade.
That’s why I’m keeping my focus on the long term and not worrying about short-term price fluctuations. As long as Bitcoin can continue to grow like a high-upside tech stock, it should have no problem hitting the $250,000 price level in five years.
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Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin and Ethereum. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.