Pistons at NBA trade deadline: Evaluating potential moves and future projections

After half a decade of looking up at the rest of the Eastern Conference, the Detroit Pistons have returned to relevance. Cade Cunningham and company are nearing the midpoint of the regular season while sitting atop the East.

With the Feb. 5 trade deadline on the horizon, it’s only right to chop it up with former Memphis Grizzlies executive John Hollinger to assess how he’d approach the deadline and upcoming offseason from the Pistons’ perspective.

In our discussion, Hollinger weighs in on whether Detroit should go all-in or operate with an opportunistic mindset; how patient the Pistons should be with guard Jaden Ivey; Detroit’s path to converting Daniss Jenkins’ two-way contract; the future of veteran forward Tobias Harris and more.

Patterson: As someone well-versed in front office dealings, what would your general approach to this trade season be, given the Pistons’ success thus far?

Hollinger: There are two competing schools of thought here. The first is to say that you’ve got a good team right now, that they’re in first in the East and the conference looks a bit soft, and that Detroit should grab the bull by the horns while it’s there for the taking.

The second is to slow our roll a bit here and not start planning parades just yet. We’ve never seen this iteration of the Pistons go through a real playoff gauntlet, and the surest way to learn about what you truly need as a team is to have an opponent pick away at it and expose it over a seven-game series. That’s especially true for a team like this one, whose possession-dependent style with limited shooting historically hasn’t been a great playoff model.

There’s also, I should note, a fine line between saying Detroit has the best record in the East and saying it’s the best team in the East. The first is objectively true; the second is not even remotely clear and won’t be until late spring.

As a result, I might consider a middle ground that looks more at incremental roster upgrades rather than all-in trades that surrender the Pistons’ future trade flexibility. Detroit needs another shooter, a long-term starting power forward, and a ballhandler who can relieve some of Cunningham’s burden. Any of those things would be reasonable acquisitions at the deadline if it required second-round picks, or perhaps even the Pistons’ 2026 first.

Beyond that, however, if I were (Pistons’ president of basketball operations) Trajan Langdon, I would be much more open to taking big swings once I had more information about what this current group looks like in a late-round playoff series.

Patterson: Jaden Ivey has yet to look like the player who was on pace for a career high in scoring and 3-point percentage last season. Detroit has been patient with him in his 23 games since returning from his broken fibula and knee surgery, and it seems the franchise understands it’ll take some time for him to return to form.

What’s your gauge on his future with the Pistons? While it doesn’t seem likely he’ll be dealt before the deadline, how would you handle his restricted free agency this summer?

Hollinger: I think Detroit will be in a strong position with Ivey. Yes, other teams will have cap space, but I don’t see a team out there that is viewing Ivey as a surefire long-term starter.

As a result, how high could the bidding realistically go? Ivey’s qualifying offer is for $13.4 million, and the Pistons have the flexibility to welcome him back at any price in that range; I have a hard time seeing rival teams go over $20 million a year for a player who is so unproven as an offensive engine.

Patterson: Considering Detroit has 15 players on guaranteed contracts plus three players on two-way deals, what would be the best path to convert Daniss Jenkins to a standard contract?

Hollinger: In the absence of another trade that opens a roster spot, it seems pretty clear that the Pistons should cut or trade one of Isaac Jones or Bobi Klintman, depending on which of the two the team thinks is closer to being rotation-viable in 2026-27. Klintman’s deal is non-guaranteed next season; Jones would be a restricted free agent who would presumably cost the minimum.

Realistically, Jones is three years older and a less valuable position archetype, so he’s likely the odd man out.

Note that Detroit would likely need to incentivize any trade with cash or a second-round pick and probably doesn’t need to bother; the Pistons are $19 million below the tax line and will have enough flexibility below the aprons and tax to make any move they want, regardless. Thus, they can just cut the player they won’t keep and eat the money.

Finally, while we’re here: I think Tolu Smith is an NBA player, too, but Detroit doesn’t really need to roster four centers.

Patterson: With Jalen Duren making a case for his first All-Star selection, what do you envision his market being this summer? I think it’s safe to say he’s played himself into a more lucrative contract, but did the Pistons handicap themselves financially by not locking him into an extension earlier this season?

Hollinger: Yes, I think they’re going to regret not extending him, because there are cap-room teams that need a center, and at least one of them might decide to drop a max offer sheet on Duren.

In particular, I would worry about the Chicago Bulls, who are desperate for a center, have an otherwise young core all around Duren’s age, and will have enough cap room to offer him a max contract.

It’s not just them: the Utah Jazz would be a major threat if Walker Kessler leaves; the Los Angeles Lakers will have max room and frontcourt needs if LeBron James doesn’t return; and teams like the Atlanta Hawks and Indiana Pacers can make one or two trades to generate additional cap room and do a Myles Turner-style ambush contract.

The good news is that Detroit can match any offer sheet to Duren, and have more than enough flexibility to absorb another big contract. (Amazingly, Cunningham is the only Pistons player whose guaranteed salary is more than next year’s nontaxpayer midlevel exception).

Patterson: Tobias Harris is on an expiring contract and averaging his fewest points since his second season in the league. What would you say the likelihood is of the Pistons trying to offload his salary in an attempt to get something in return? Especially considering Isaiah Stewart is having his most productive season under head coach J.B. Bickerstaff as a four alongside Duren?

Hollinger: You lost me at “getting something in return.” Harris is a decent player, but he makes $26.6 million and is no longer a starting-caliber power four. Realistically, any deal involving Harris is one that likely sends out draft capital or a prospect as well, to make an upgrade at his position and/or add a player who is under contract beyond this season.

For example, Detroit could send Harris and its 2026 first to the Grizzlies for Santi Aldama and John Konchar if it felt Aldama (signed for two years beyond this one) was a long-term fit. Or they could trade Harris, Klintman, Jones and two seconds to the Miami Heat for Terry Rozier (pending the league’s approval of a Rozier trade given his current legal situation), Nikola Jović (about to start a four-year, $62 million extension) and old friend Simone Fontecchio.

This is unlikely, but I’ll throw it out here anyway: One possible nerdy cap shenanigan is to trade Harris and Paul Reed for two players, one who makes less than $14.3 million and the other who makes less than $10.8 million. The latter of the two could be offset by Reed’s outbound salary, and the former could be absorbed into the Pistons’ existing trade exception for Dennis Schröder as a result of his sign-and-trade to the Sacramento Kings. Thus, Detroit would generate a new exception worth $26.6 million for Harris it could carry into next offseason.

Getting salaries to line up that perfectly in a trade that also makes some basketball sense seems virtually impossible, but it would be pretty sweet to pull off.

Bigger picture, however, I don’t think Beef Stew is the long-term answer as the starting four, even if he can sometimes finish games. Detroit’s biggest long-term issue is nailing down its starter at that spot.

Patterson: While league sources expect the Pistons to be opportunistic but not aggressive, would this be the season Detroit should look to capitalize on an Eastern Conference in flux? Or do you see them as being a group with the potential for sustained success that doesn’t prompt a move this deadline for anything other than marginal growth?

Hollinger: The Pistons will inevitably have to make at least one more move to maximize this roster, and Harris’ expiring contract does provide the opportunity to salary match on elite talent if the right deal becomes available.

But I’ve seen this movie enough times before that I’ll counsel patience right now; there are too many things Detroit doesn’t know yet about its own team, and it isn’t going to find them out until it plays meaningful games in May. If you look at this over the life cycle of the Cunningham-Duren-Ausar Thompson core, making the right move with better information is more important than rushing into a less-informed decision that the Pistons might later regret.