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00:00 Jared
The market is starting the new year on a mostly upbeat note, tech stocks leading the way on Wall Street, but my next guest says there is risk with so much of the market’s gains centered around tech. Joining us now is Patrick Mueller, Bella Advisors President. Great to have you here, Patrick. So let’s talk about that concentration. I love your leadoff in your notes today. The market is acting like it had a double espresso. Do we have a caffeine hangover this year or do we triple down on that espresso?
00:33 Patrick Mueller
That’s right. It’s going to be an interesting year, Jared, and happy New Year. And what we’re going to see this year, I think is going to be a a big play from what we saw last year. Not as intense, I don’t think with with all the tariff moves, liberation day driving down the market so much last year with all the tariffs, but we are going to see that coming into this year. And and it’s going to be really interesting when it when it comes to tech, you know, there’s going to be some type of catalyst, I think it’s going to bring tech down and in the long run, I really like tech and and we’re getting good earnings from there, but I’d be paying really close attention to these huge players like Nvidia, making sure that they are they are locked step with their earnings because if they they draw back on their earnings and don’t meet expectations, then that that could be a big pull down.
01:23 Jared
And we have seen that movie before, for sure. We’ve recovered. Do we do it again? Want to talk to you about a different segment of the market and let’s just talk Warren Buffett. This is the first day that of uh Berkshire Hathaway that Warren Buffett is not CEO since the early 1960s. Uh but that’s a value play and my question for you is we’ve did see some movement in the financials last year, they had a great year. Do we see the value play tick up this year?
01:57 Patrick Mueller
I think we’re going to continue to see that moving forward in financials with loose and regulations as we start moving forward and I’m a big fan of of Buffett because I mean how often did he get it wrong, right? I’m sure he’s he’s got good successors and they’re sitting on a ton of cash right now, which I think a lot of people should be paying attention to. and and they’re probably just, you know, wait waiting, you know, to pounce when whenever we do start seeing a big pullback and for good plays, but I like that for people right now because we’re at all-time market highs and there’s never a better time to start taking chips off of the table and start diversifying and waiting for those opportunities to arise as we start moving forward here. So I I personally like taking some of those chips off of the table because you hear these phrases, Jared, that drive me crazy when the markets are down that it’s only a paper loss, but it’s also only a paper gain, right? It’s not a gain until you realize it either.
02:59 Jared
And until it’s in your wallet, very well said Patrick. Let’s talk about uh some of the investments coming home. I like that uh subject headline you’re giving us here. GE is moving from China to Kentucky and then you got some notes on Taiwan Semi, Hyundai, Apple, etc. on shoring.
03:22 Patrick Mueller
With all the tariff stuff that’s going on, one of the pro moves that that nobody’s really talking about is all the markets that are opening up around the world that we haven’t been able to sell into as a country. So we’re starting to see exports heating up and I think we’re going to see that moving forward and that’s going to be good for jobs moving forward and bringing those jobs back to the country. And I I think it’s just going to be a huge win for the US long-term when when it comes to all those pro moves and companies coming back and companies overseas, right? Because we’re not going to be tarifffing goods that are made here in the states and starting to ship those overseas. So we’re going to start making that move and and that’s going to be really great for the country and we’re already seeing GDP heating up.
04:19 Jared
All right. I want to talk about potential headwinds and there are some things happening in the consumer sector uh with refi, homeowners and also credit cards. You’re talking, you’re highlighting something called financial Jenga. Let’s hear about that.
04:40 Patrick Mueller
Well, what’s happening that nobody’s really talking about when it comes to consumer debt, it’s at all-time highs. So the the sales were really good over Christmas time, but it’s all being financed. You got doordash financing people’s food purchases, which I think is insane. It just shows you how much that’s beating up on people’s wallets over the last few years because the price of everything has really doubled over the last few years and people are hurting more than I think that is being led on right now. So we’re going to see that come to roost because you got people that right now, Jared, that are refinancing out of their beautiful interest rates, right? two, 3% interest rates into 6, 7, 8 plus% interest rates because they need to get that money out and pay off those those 20% credit cards and get that cash out because they’re they’re struggling and and we need to be paying attention to that because at some point, you know, that uh, you know, that ship’s going to come in and that bubble’s going to burst.
05:54 Jared
Let’s talk about another potential bubble. I’m not calling this a bubble just yet, but stick with me. I’m talking about precious metals. We got silver up 150% over the last year, Platinum pretty close to that, Palladium, Gold up 60%. So, what do you see in the future for metals this year?
06:17 Patrick Mueller
I think we’re going to continue as we see a lot of this uncertainty. I think we’re going to see a lot more going into precious metals. Even even though we’re seeing big surges in it and we might see a little bit of a pullback, but I think we’re going to continue to see a rise, especially as the dollar is weakening. And I think we’re going to see that until we can kind of get through this refinancing of debt that the government’s got going on right now. So there you got trillions of dollars here in the first part of this year that of debt that needs to be refinanced and I I think until we start getting past a lot of that stuff, I think we’re going to start seeing a lot of money that’s that’s going into precious metals and then I also like mining companies looking out for uh for those different companies as well.