LHV Group financial plan for 2026 and the five-year financial forecast

In 2026, LHV Group will focus on continued growth in business volumes and customer activity, alongside improved operational efficiency. Total income is expected to increase by approximately 9%, supported by growth in net interest income and strong growth in net fee and commission income. Expenses are projected to grow more slowly than income, allowing operating profitability to improve marginally, while loan loss provisions are expected to normalise following the exceptionally low level in 2025. As a result, net profit is forecasted to remain broadly at the level of the previous year.

The loan portfolio is expected to grow by over 11% and deposits by more than 5%, reflecting LHV’s strong position among both retail and corporate customers. Although net interest income is growing this year, its impact is more moderate, meaning net profit in 2026 will remain close to last year’s level. At the same time, improved efficiency and expanding business volumes provide a strong foundation for accelerating profitability and return on equity in the coming years.

*Calculated on the basis of the average end-of-month equity volumes

LHV Pank

LHV Pank’s financial outlook is centred on quality-focused and return-oriented growth. The loan portfolio is expected to increase by approximately 4%, driven primarily by home loans and growth in SME and corporate lending. The structure of deposits will become more stable and profitable, with demand deposits from regular customers increasing by nearly 16%, offsetting a deliberate reduction in deposits from financial intermediaries and platforms. Overall deposit volumes are expected to remain broadly in line with the previous year.

Total income is forecasted to grow by more than 10%, supported by moderate growth in net interest income and strong growth of nearly 30% in net fee and commission income, reflecting higher customer activity and growth in the customer base across payments, FX, investment and card services. Expenses are expected to grow more slowly than income, allowing the cost-to-income ratio to improve from 42.7% to 41.8%, while credit risk costs remain at a low level.

LHV Bank

LHV Bank’s financial forecast for 2026 indicates accelerated growth, with business volumes and income expanding faster than costs. Deposits are expected to grow by approximately 37%, reflecting strong retail growth and continued demand for term deposits. The loan portfolio is expected to increase by more than 50%, moving purposefully towards the EUR 1 billion level.

Total income is projected to grow by nearly 20%, supported by strong growth in net interest income and rapid growth in net fee and commission income, mainly due to lower service fee expenses following the termination of the payment collection service. Expenses are expected to grow more slowly than income, and the cost-to-income ratio is projected to improve from 83% to 77%, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency. As a result, profit before tax is expected to increase by approximately 68% and net profit by nearly 80%, making 2026 a clear breakthrough year in LHV Bank’s profitability trajectory and creating a strong basis for further improvement in return on equity in the coming years.

LHV Varahaldus

In 2026, LHV Varahaldus forecasts clear growth in profitability and volumes, driven by fund returns and growth in the number of customers. Assets under management are expected to increase by approximately 12%, supported by competitive returns and a more effective sales and cross-selling model.

Total income is expected to grow by over 22%. Expenses will grow in a controlled manner, without an increase in the number of FTEs, allowing the cost-to-income ratio to improve from 61.1% to 58.4%. As a result, profit before tax is expected to grow by nearly 30% and net profit by over 20%.

LHV Kindlustus

Gross written premiums of LHV Kindlustus are expected to grow by 12% in 2026, reaching EUR 48 million. Growth is primarily driven by cross-selling within LHV Group and digital mobile and web channels. Claims frequency is expected to remain stable or slightly below the level of 2025, keeping the loss ratio under control.

Operating expenses in 2026 are planned to increase by approximately 12%, in line with portfolio and premium growth. The majority of the increase relates to intra-group services and cost allocations.

Financial forecast for 2026–2030

LHV Group’s financial forecast for 2026–2030 is based on a moderately improving macroeconomic environment in both Estonia and the United Kingdom. Economic growth is expected to stabilise and inflation to normalise at around 2–2.5%. In Estonia, economic growth is assumed to accelerate from 2026, supported by gradual labour market improvement, while in the United Kingdom growth is expected to remain modest but stable, supporting consistent lending and deposit activity. Competition in banking is expected to remain strong, particularly in loans and deposits, underlining the importance of efficiency and disciplined pricing.

Within this framework, LHV Group forecasts total income to increase from nearly EUR 305 million in 2025 to over EUR 593 million by 2030, supported by growth in both net interest income and net fee and commission income. Key business volumes are expected to nearly double: net loans are projected to grow from approximately EUR 5.5 billion to over EUR 10 billion, deposits from EUR 8.1 billion to nearly EUR 12.8 billion and assets under management from EUR 1.7 billion to over EUR 3 billion. Expense growth is expected to remain clearly below income growth, allowing the cost-to-income ratio to improve from above 50% to approximately 36% by the end of the period.

Net profit is projected to double over the period to EUR 290 million, while return on equity is expected to increase from approximately 16% to above 23% by 2030.

*Calculated on the basis of the average end-of-month equity volumes

Comment by Mihkel Torim, Chairman of the Management Board of LHV Group:

“In Estonia, LHV Pank’s focus in 2026 is on high-quality and measured growth. In the United Kingdom, the expected growth of more than 50% in the loan portfolio and nearly 80% in net profit is already supported by scale effects. LHV Varahaldus continues on a strong profitability trajectory, with net profit expected to grow by over 20%. Growth at LHV Kindlustus is primarily driven by improved service to our existing customer base through cross-selling.

Our long-term financial forecast rests on three pillars. First, we will continue to grow business volumes in both of our home markets. Second, our plan assumes a moderate increase in base interest rates from 2027 onwards. Third, and most importantly, we are continuously improving operational efficiency. The main driver of this is the rapid development of our technological capabilities, which requires deliberate and well-considered transformation rather than passive expectation.”

The reports of AS LHV Group are available at: https://investor.lhv.ee/en/reports/

To introduce the financial results and the financial plan, LHV Group will organise a webinar via Microsoft Teams on 12 February at 13:00 (EET). The presentation will be held in English. Please register here.

LHV Group is the largest domestic financial group and capital provider in Estonia. LHV Group’s key subsidiaries are LHV Pank, LHV Varahaldus, LHV Kindlustus, and LHV Bank Limited. The Group employs approximately 1,200 people. As at the end of December, the services of LHV Pank are being used by 492,000 customers, the II pillar pension funds managed by LHV have 106,000 active customers, and LHV Kindlustus protects a total of 231,000 customers. LHV Bank Limited, a subsidiary of the Group, holds a banking licence in the United Kingdom and provides banking services to international financial technology companies, as well as loans to small and medium-sized enterprises.

Investor relations 
Sten Hans Jakobsoo 
Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Development 
Email: stenhans.jakobsoo@lhv.ee 
 
Media and communications 
Paul Pihlak 
Head of Communications 
Email: paul.pihlak@lhv.ee

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