JPMorgan Predicts Bitcoin Could Hit $240K: Here’s How Crypto’s Macro Maturity is Changing the Game

Key Takeaways

• JPMorgan says Bitcoin could reach $240,000 over the long term if big macro trends move in its favor.
• Bitcoin is now treated as a “macro asset,” meaning it reacts to interest rates, inflation, and the U.S. dollar, not just the Halving as it used to.
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs like BlackRock’s IBIT now drive a big share of Bitcoin’s price movements through large inflows and outflows.
• De-dollarization and the “debasement trade” are pushing some investors toward scarce assets like Bitcoin and gold as long-term value stores.

Bitcoin, and the crypto market in general, is experiencing quite the downturn. But that hasn’t deterred many of its biggest investors. In fact, enthusiasts might consider the world’s first cryptocurrency “on sale,” rather than view its current state as a sign of failure.

Reportedly, JPMorgan is one such optimist, with an issued note suggesting that Bitcoin could climb as high as $240,000 over the long term. Essentially, the financial services entity is framing BTC as a macro asset, rather than some niche speculative one.

Of course, a $240,000 price point would mean Bitcoin tripling the $80,000-90,000 range it has been sitting around since late November 2025, and peaking far beyond its recent all time high of around $126,000.

So where is JPMorgan producing this number from? It’s a result of the company’s “macro maturity” assessment.

Let’s dive deeper.

What Does Bitcoin as A “Macro” Asset Mean?

According to the bank’s latest note, JPMorgan analysts now see a long-term upside scenario where Bitcoin “could potentially reach $240k… thus indicating it as a multi-year growth play.”

JPMorgan naming Bitcoin a “macro asset” is based largely on the asset’s shift from a niche investment to one “more influenced by broader economic trends” far more than its halving cycle.

Basically, Bitcoin began as a niche asset where miners earned BTC for validating blocks, while releasing more of its 21 million into the ecosystem.

Programmed into Bitcoin’s code is the “halving” which halves said reward, and how much of that 21 million is released into circulation per block validation, every four years. For these first few periods, the Halving caused Bitcoin’s largest economic shifts.

JPMorgan’s macro moniker suggests that the halving is no longer as important, and there’s plenty of evidence backing such a claim:

• Spot Bitcoin ETFs: Bitcoin ETFs have rerouted a massive amount of crypto capital into institutional, regulated products with millions in inflows and outflows.
• Institutional interest: When Bitcoin dropped below its $100,000 peak, analysts believe its potential recovery will occur through ETF flows and institutional demand.
• Alternative investments: Outside of institutional money, everyday investors are getting into Bitcoin as an alternative investment. Issues like inflation and government deficits are shifting regular money into “hard assets” like gold and Bitcoin in an attempt to beat the failing dollar.

Put simply: where Bitcoin’s price once moved only via the Halving and fear-of-missing-out (FOMO), it has become a “macro” asset, meaning avenues like spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional investment are the prime drivers.

Why Bitcoin’s “Macro” Status Doesn’t Mitigate Risk

What’s important to note is, despite Bitcoin’s strong integration into the global market, the asset hasn’t magically become low-risk.

JPMorgan stresses this point. While the bank argues that institutional liquidity and ETF demand are helping to “stabilize flows” and make Bitcoin’s pricing more reliable over time, it also warns that crypto is still a “liquid yet structurally inefficient” market. Basically, JPMorgan says that despite Bitcoin’s global liquidity, large buy-ins or sell-offs can still cause sudden, severe price swings.

Recent news is a great example of this. Bitcoin went from $126,000 in early October to the low $80,000 range in November, eliminating most of its 2025 gains in just a few weeks.

JPMorgan’s own actions back up its careful tone. The bank has even filed a note , or an investment method, tied to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) that can offer up to 1.5x upside if Bitcoin rallies through 2028, meaning the Trust performs well on top of the digital asset.

The note provides exposure to the digital asset in lieu of its risk. While JPMorgan cannot protect investors from Bitcoin’s volatility, its note does offer protections, allowing investors to recover their initial investment in 2028 assuming IBIT falls less than 30%.

Where Do Fed’s December Rate Cuts Fit In?

JPMorgan’s Bitcoin view also connects to its stance on interest rates.

On November 28, the bank said it expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut rates by 0.25 percentage points (25 basis points) in December, instead of waiting until January, though a smaller cut may follow in 2026’s first month.

Here’s why that matters for Bitcoin as a macro asset:

• The Fed cutting rates often makes borrowing cheaper.
• Cheaper money often helps risk assets like stocks and crypto, as investors are more willing to take risk.
• Higher interest rates, on the other hand, tend to hurt those assets as investors move to lower-risk, interest-paying choices like high APY savings accounts.

As for why JPMorgan expects a December rate cut, the bank’s chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, says comments from Fed officials such as New York Fed President John Williams, shifted its view.

Market tools like the CMEGroup’s FedWatch show traders pricing in, or betting on the chances of, such an event.

JPMorgan Links De-Dollarization and Debasement Trade to a $240K Bitcoin Scenario

There’s another perspective to JPMorgan’s macro view: the U.S. dollar itself.

In a July 2025 research note called: “De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance?” JPMorgan examines how some countries are trying to rely a bit less on the dollar when it comes to trades and reserves. The bank points out that the dollar is still the world’s main reserve currency, yet there is a slow push toward diversification, with more use of local currencies and gold.

Think of the US dollar like the “primary language” of global money. De-dollarization doesn’t mean everybody suddenly switches languages. It means more people start using a second language as well, like cryptocurrencies or hold, on the side.

One reason for de-dollarization is debasement trade. Debasement trade happens when investors worry that governments are borrowing too much, printing too much money, or failing to properly counter inflation. In that case, they start moving from the dollar’s perceived failure into alternative assets like gold or Bitcoin, as mentioned earlier.

JPMorgan defines debasement trade as a theme driven by:

• Persistent inflation risk
• High government deficits
• Rising geopolitical uncertainty
• Waning confidence in fiat currencies
• Diversification from the U.S. dollar

So when JPMorgan talks about de-dollarization and debasement trade at the same time it is floating a $240k Bitcoin scenario, it’s really saying this:

If the world slowly leans away from the dollar due to fear of inflation and debt, scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin may benefit.

In that world, Bitcoin doesn’t have to replace the dollar. It just has to become one of the main places people park their value when they don’t fully trust paper money.

What JPMorgan’s $240K Bitcoin Scenario Means for Everyday Investors

Now, for the everyday investor, this can be a bit hard to follow. JPMorgan’s insights mean you should keep your eyes on:

• World news: News that affects the entire world, such as Fed Rate cuts, U.S. debt headlines, and global tensions, has an effect on crypto as well.
• ETF flows: Funds like IBIT hold tens of billions of dollars in Bitcoin. When money rushes into these funds, the digital asset’s price may jump. Yet, when money rushes out, such as IBIT’s single-day outflows, Bitcoin can fall just as fast.
• $240K is a target: JPMorgan’s $240K prediction is just that, not a promise. The bank is laying out a scenario where Bitcoin rides macro trends such as de-dollarization, debasement concerns, and institutional adoption, the bank’s predictive price point could take many years, if it ever happens at all.
• Risk is always a factor: Even with ETFs and bank notes involved, Bitcoin is massively volatile. A 30-40% drop in a few weeks is not an unusual behavior. JPMorgan’s own IBIT-linked note warns that there is no guarantee investors will get their money back if Bitcoin drops too far.

Bitcoin’s Evolution: From Speculative Bet to Macro Asset in JPMorgan’s Eyes

JPMorgan’s $240,000 Bitcoin idea isn’t just a flashy number. It’s a sign that one of the world’s largest banks now views Bitcoin as a full-on macro asset. One tied to rate cuts, the health of the U.S. dollar, government debt, and the world’s appetite for risk.

All this to say, Bitcoin has grown from a niche investment to a macro-sensitive, scare one that sits inside giant ETFs and even powers bank products. But Bitcoin being all grown up doesn’t necessarily make it safe.

If you choose to get involved, it’s worth looking at Bitcoin as JPMorgan does: A high-volatility macro asset with potential long-term upside in a world of de-dollarization.

The real question isn’t just if Bitcoin can reach $240k. It’s whether or not investors understand what type of asset it has become, at least in the eyes of some of the world’s largest banks, and how much they’re willing to get involved.

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