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After a volatile 2025 that tested investor conviction across asset classes, the first quarter of 2026 is shaping up to demand even greater discipline and flexibility. Inflation remains sticky, geopolitical and fiscal uncertainty continues to cloud forecasts, and the AI trade is entering a more complex phase.
Speaking on Yahoo Finance Future Focus, Saxo UK Investor Strategist Neil Wilson said investors should not expect a clean break from last year’s challenges. Instead, many of the dominant narratives of 2025 are likely to persist, forcing a rethink of how portfolios are constructed.
According to Wilson, the traditional 60/40 stocks-and-bonds portfolio is no longer sufficient on its own in an environment defined by macro fragmentation and inflation risk.
“The key sort of narratives that we’ve had over the last year or so are going to continue to a large extent,” he said, pointing to inflation, political uncertainty, fiscal pressures and the accelerating impact of AI on markets.
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As a result, Saxo is seeing what Wilson described as a “reimagining of the classic portfolio”, with investors looking beyond equities and core bonds to build greater resilience. Commodities, real assets and selective alternatives are increasingly being brought into the fold as investors try to hedge against inflation and policy uncertainty.
Equities still sit at the core of portfolios, and bonds remain important, but Wilson said the conversation has shifted toward what else belongs alongside them, and in what form.
One of the clearest trends Saxo has observed is a surge in interest in more sophisticated ETF strategies. Investors are no longer just buying broad, passive trackers, but are increasingly allocating to actively managed and options-based ETFs designed to generate additional yield.
Wilson said this doesn’t mean retail investors need to start managing derivatives strategies themselves. Instead, these products offer access to more complex approaches in a simple wrapper.
“That’s why these ETFs are becoming so popular,” he explained, noting they allow investors to benefit from options strategies or enhanced yield without needing to actively manage the mechanics themselves.
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The trade-off, he added, is that these products may come with higher fees, but the aim is to generate incremental returns over time, rather than chase short-term gains.
While some investors may be tempted by headline-grabbing returns, Wilson stressed that Saxo’s guidance remains firmly long-term focused. The goal is to build wealth gradually, potentially by adding “an extra few basis points” or “an extra couple of percentage points of yield” compared with less sophisticated products.
Few themes divide investors more than AI, particularly as concerns grow about overvaluation in US tech giants. Wilson acknowledged the volatility but said the AI trade is evolving rather than collapsing.
Rather than being concentrated solely in US hyperscalers, he expects AI exposure to broaden out across regions and sectors in 2026. Asia, in particular, is emerging as a critical, and often under-appreciated, part of the AI supply chain.
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Taiwan, Japan and South Korea collectively dominate key areas such as AI memory and semiconductor foundry capacity, Wilson noted, making regional ETFs and funds an increasingly attractive way to diversify AI exposure away from crowded US trades.
This broadening, he argued, could help reduce some of the concentration risk that has made AI-linked equities so volatile over the past year.
Wilson also expects inflation to remain a factor in 2026, even as financial conditions begin to loosen. Central banks, in his view, are increasingly willing to “let things run a bit hot”, a backdrop that has implications for asset allocation.
Commodities are a central part of that conversation. Strong performance in gold, for example, reflects demand for inflation protection and diversification away from traditional assets. Precious metals, select commodities and real estate can all play a role in portfolios designed to weather policy uncertainty.
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Another area Saxo is watching closely is private markets. After a difficult period since 2022, Wilson believes improving financial conditions could reopen the IPO pipeline and revive opportunities in private equity.
While access remains challenging for retail investors, he said structured products and vehicles are emerging that provide exposure without the traditional barriers.
The overarching aim, Wilson stressed, is resilience, constructing portfolios that can absorb shocks rather than relying on a narrow set of macro assumptions.
Looking further ahead, Wilson identified three potential sources of “black swan” risk that investors should not ignore.
The first is technological: the convergence of AI and quantum computing. A so-called “Q-Day,” where quantum breakthroughs undermine existing encryption or financial infrastructure, could have profound implications for markets.
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The second is political fragmentation in Europe, which Wilson sees as an under-appreciated systemic risk amid ongoing fiscal and governance tensions.
The third is trade policy. Wilson cautioned that the full impact of tariffs may not yet be reflected in US economic data, with potential consequences for demand, inflation and Federal Reserve policy decisions down the line.
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