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After one of the most disruptive years for global commerce in decades, the world trading system is heading into 2026 with growing uncertainty. While global merchandise trade showed resilience through 2025, the aftereffects of U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda are beginning to surface—and the consequences may only now be taking shape.
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Data cited by shipping industry veteran John McCown show global container volumes rose 2.1% year-over-year in October, suggesting that trade flows held up better than many feared. However, that headline figure masks significant regional divergence. U.S. inbound container volumes fell 8%, while imports into Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, and India posted strong gains.
According to McCown, global supply chains are already adapting to a new trade reality. After U.S. container imports surged 15.2% in 2024, 2025 is shaping up to be a stark reversal. “If 2025 was the year of the tariff,” he wrote, “then 2026 will be the year of tariff consequences.”
USMCA Review Raises Stakes in North America
One of the most closely watched developments in the coming year is the review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which came into force in 2020. The agreement includes an unusual provision requiring a review after just six years, pushing the three countries into largely untested negotiating territory.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told lawmakers that more than 1,500 public comments were submitted ahead of the review. While many stakeholders support extending the deal, nearly all called for changes—setting the stage for difficult talks. Any gains for one member risk losses for another, particularly as Canadian and Mexican industries grapple with U.S. import taxes.
Tensions are already evident. Relations between Washington and Ottawa have deteriorated since Trump abruptly ended trade talks with Canada in October following a dispute over anti-tariff advertising.
Shipping Risks: Capacity Shocks and Demand Surges
Global shipping faces its own set of challenges. Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, warns that two developments often seen as positive could instead destabilize supply chains.
The first is a potential large-scale return of container ships to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, following a reduction in Houthi attacks after a Gaza peace agreement. While some carriers, including CMA CGM and Maersk, have already resumed limited transits, a full return could flood the market with excess capacity and trigger severe port congestion in Europe.
The second risk is demand-driven. If the U.S. economy accelerates in 2026—boosted by lower interest rates and renewed investment—inventory restocking could overwhelm shipping networks, echoing disruptions seen during the Covid era.
Fragile Trade Deals Under Pressure
The Trump administration has touted several trade agreements reached in 2025 as major wins. However, many of these pacts are informal, lack enforcement mechanisms, and offer only temporary relief from higher tariffs. The truce with China, for example, lasts just one year and leaves unresolved the largest bilateral trade imbalance in the global economy.
That fragility is already showing. Indonesia delayed signing an agreement amid concerns over economic independence, while China has warned countries such as Malaysia and Cambodia against aligning too closely with Washington. Even traditionally close allies like the UK have encountered new trade frictions.
Meanwhile, contentious negotiations with the European Union and India are expected to spill into 2026. The U.S. has also threatened retaliation against the EU over what it views as excessive regulation of American technology firms.
Supreme Court Decision Looms Over Tariff Policy
Adding to the uncertainty is a pending U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the legality of Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs. If the court strikes them down, a key question will be whether importers are entitled to refunds—a prospect administration officials have downplayed due to the logistical complexity involved.
Betting markets currently assign roughly a 75% chance that the administration will lose the case. If that happens, the White House is expected to explore alternative legal avenues to maintain tariff pressure.
When asked whether 2026 would bring calmer trade conditions, Greer declined to speculate. “That’s a question for President Trump,” he said.