Giannis Antetokounmpo trade roundtable: Are Warriors a realistic option for Bucks?

Whatever terminology you want to use about who might have asked for what at what time, it is clear that Giannis Antetokounmpo is available to be dealt before the trade deadline. And hey, we are within a week of that Feb. 5 deadline, which puts certain teams more on the clock than others.

Some suitors will be motivated to try to get a done deal before Thursday, while others will hope no deal gets done and they can wait until the offseason when they will be able to line up their picks and salaries in a more deal-friendly manner.

The Athletic’s Sam Amick, John Hollinger, Eric Nehm and Nick Friedell got together to discuss the timing of the Antetokounmpo sweepstakes.

What are the pros and cons of trading Giannis now vs. waiting for the summer? What is better for Giannis, and what is better for the Bucks, and why?

Hollinger: The pros are much stronger from the perspective of the acquiring team and for Giannis than they are for the Bucks. The logic for any team acquiring Antetokounmpo now instead of in the summer is that they get one more playoff run with him as a centerpiece, which is important considering the 31-year-old likely has only a few peak seasons left before his performance trails off. Similarly, for Antetokounmpo, why would he want to waste his spring golfing or watching the Brewers* after the Bucks are eliminated in April, rather than competing for another championship with another contender?

For the Bucks, however, the logic of an offseason trade is likely stronger unless a team is willing to make an over-the-top, all-in offer right now. Several potential Giannis pursuers will have greater draft equity available on draft night in June than they do now. If there are more suitors, there will be more competition, which would theoretically increase Milwaukee’s potential return. Additionally, once the 2026 lottery has passed, any 2026 picks involved in a trade are known values rather than estimated probabilities, making it much easier for the Bucks to evaluate trade packages. For one hypothetical instance, if Atlanta were willing to part with its juicy 2026 first-round pick (the better of Milwaukee’s or New Orleans’s) in a Giannis trade package, Milwaukee would feel a lot better after the lottery knowing exactly where the pick landed, rather than trying to guesstimate among a range of outcomes.

(*Time spent watching the Brewers is never wasted.)

Nehm: From the Bucks’ perspective, this is pretty simple. If the Milwaukee ownership group ultimately tells general manager Jon Horst to go ahead and trade the best player in the franchise’s history, Horst needs to do everything in his power to get the best possible return for Antetokounmpo. There can be no half-measures.

Horst has spent the last nine years doing everything in his power to build a title contender and then keep the Bucks in title contention. For the sake of the franchise, he would have to approach the return he gets for Antetokounmpo with the same tenacity and aggressiveness he used when making moves to put the Bucks in position to win the third-most games in the league since he took over as general manager in 2017.

Maximizing the return is all that matters. That appears to be difficult at this year’s trade deadline, unless a team gets desperate and decides to throw down an offer so good that they cannot refuse it.

Friedell: I would think it’s better for the Bucks to move him now because they would be guaranteeing their trade partners two playoff runs with Antetokounmpo instead of just one, health-willing. I keep coming back to one thought: How much responsibility does the organization feel to send him to a team he actually wants to be on given all that he’s done for Milwaukee over the years?

For Giannis, whether he gets traded now or in the summer, what difference does it make as long as he goes to a place he wants to be long-term? How much will he push the Bucks behind the scenes? More teams may be able to make better offers over the summer. But if he won’t sign there after his current deal runs out, what’s the point?

Amick: Two recent situations with star players are worth revisiting as context: The Sacramento Kings’ decision to send De’Aaron Fox to San Antonio last February and the Phoenix Suns’ choice to trade Kevin Durant to Houston in July. Based on those comparisons — Fox had a season and a half left on his contract while Durant had just one season — I would argue that the Bucks should wait for the summer. After all, the Kings are known to have serious regrets about the outcome of their deal (duh) and the Suns, conversely, strongly contend that their choice to remain patient paid off in the form of the best possible return.

But the human factor always plays a big part, and that’s why there are still many people around the league who believe the Bucks will do an Antetokounmpo deal before the deadline. As was the case with Fox, and, to a lesser degree, Durant, there’s an uncomfortable awkwardness that comes with everyone in the room knowing that your professional partnership is unofficially over. There can be a domino effect, too, with whatever shred of shared purpose remained within the group evaporating amid all that dysfunction. It’s only natural to want to bring that unhealthy dynamic to an end, but — as the Kings can attest — it can still get pretty ugly on the other side of a bad trade, too.

Which potential Giannis suitor needs to make the deal happen this week the most and why?

Hollinger: I know the obvious answer is to say Golden State, because the Warriors could package their future draft picks along with Jimmy Butler, Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski for Giannis and Myles Turner and feel like they’re right back in the mix as top-tier contenders.

But can we talk about Miami? It’s been seven years since Butler signed with the Heat and Miami hasn’t been able to poach a single “name” player since. The Heat are muddling along with a roster that isn’t good enough to do anything of significance, have no young player with obvious star upside, can’t create significant cap room for at least two more years and owe a future pick to the Hornets from the disastrous Terry Rozier trade.

But if they could pair Giannis with Bam Adebayo, Norm Powell and Tyler Herro, is that something? Certainly, that is a much more relevant Heat squad than any we’ve seen the last few years, and the other teams in the East would see them as a formidable threat. Miami could get there by getting Charlotte to change the protection on the Rozier pick to be unprotected in 2028 only, and send the Bucks firsts in 2026, 2030 and 2032, along with promising big man Kel’el Ware, forward Andrew Wiggins, Rozier’s expiring contract and possibly forward Nikola Jović.

Nehm: Any team that wants Antetokounmpo and would fear what other teams can gain access to in the offseason.

For example, the New York Knicks do not currently have access to a tradeable first-round pick. In the offseason, they will gain access to two. Similarly, the Heat can trade just two first-round picks in an Antetokounmpo deal right now (unless they come to an agreement with Charlotte, as John outlined above), but gain access to two more in the offseason, giving them four total.

If the offseason doesn’t give a suitor much more trade flexibility than it currently has, that team might as well make its strongest offer now while the pool of potential suitors is less crowded.

Amick: It sure feels like now or never for the Warriors, who can offer up to four first-round picks right now and a couple of promising young players (Kuminga and Podziemski) who could be part of the Bucks’ long-term future. Those picks are likely to be at the back end of the draft, though, which could ultimately be a major obstacle to a Warriors deal. Still, the Giannis competition catches up in the offseason, when teams like Miami can suddenly tap into more first-rounders and, as such, present a package that might surpass what Golden State has out there now.

In terms of the desperation factor, I’m willing to bet that owner Joe Lacob has this dial turned all the way up to 10 at the moment. That’s the reality of having Curry in his 17th season — set to turn 38 years old in March. Now that the Butler plan has fallen apart with his torn ACL, this is the kind of dream opportunity that can salvage their spiraling situation.

Friedell: I might be in a minority, but I’ve never believed the Warriors have to rush to make this move. If they don’t feel the price is right, they could wait it out until the summer and see what happens. The real question: Does the organization feel a responsibility to Steph Curry to swing this deal right now to give him more help for an extra postseason run? How many more chances are they going to have with Steph in the postseason, especially given the way he is playing?

That’s what Warriors general manager Mike Dunleavy and his staff have to weigh. Even with Giannis, does Dunleavy think this group has enough to make a real push in the Western Conference playoffs, or would the Warriors be better served waiting until the summer and having more runway to build a deeper team around the combination of Steph and Giannis leading into next season?

What do you think is the most likely scenario and why?

Hollinger: The only deal I think the Bucks would make right now is if the Warriors put everything they can on the table — four firsts (their pick in 2030 is owed to Washington, but would only go to them if it is 21st or worse), a 2031 first-round pick swap, Butler, Podziemski and Kuminga for Giannis and Turner. Short of that, I think the Bucks believe they can do better this summer, and are probably right.

For instance, that same Miami deal I outlined above can be much stronger at the draft. They could pay Charlotte in second-round picks to make the unprotected year of the first-rounder from the Rozier trade 2027, then trade firsts in 2026 (in this scenario, they would have to make the pick for Milwaukee and officially complete the trade in July), 2029, 2031 and 2033. Plus, Jović’s extension will start in July, and the restrictive aprons will be out of play. Accordingly, a package of Jović, Wiggins and Ware is enough to get a salary match without bringing Rozier, whose status is a complicating factor, into play. There are teams such as Minnesota and New York that will have much more to offer in the offseason, too.

Finally, some other wild cards could enter the picture after they evaluate their rosters in the crucible of the postseason — notably the Rockets and Spurs, who are rich in exciting young players and picks. Either could likely beat any deal I’ve already mentioned if they decide to throw their hats in the Giannis ring.

Nehm: If logic prevails, the prospect of trading Antetokounmpo moves through another transaction window, and we get to do this all over again in the offseason. This time, though, teams will be armed with the knowledge that the Bucks at least considered moving Antetokounmpo at the deadline and could be ready to actually move him. That should give teams around the league the opportunity to prepare themselves for a run at the Bucks’ nine-time All-NBA forward.

But the packages you can create from the reported top suitors — Golden State, Miami, Minnesota, New York — do not look all that appealing for the Bucks.

Unless a different team comes in with a package that bowls them over or one of the four interested suitors above involves a third team to improve what they’re sending to the Bucks, I don’t think the Bucks should move Antetokounmpo at the deadline.

Friedell: What does Giannis want? Where does he want to be and who does he want to play with? Once we know the answers to those questions, everything else will line up.

There’s no way I would acquire Giannis without knowing whether or not he would commit to my team beyond next season — especially as he rehabs from a calf injury. So why would any team be in a rush to acquire him right now, given the uncertainty about the future?

I’ve always believed that if the deal actually goes down, it would happen in the summer because there would be more possibilities available. How good will those offers be, though? Giannis is still an unbelievable player, but he’s going to be 32 later this year and is dealing with injuries. Every team would love to have him, but what are they actually willing to give up to get him?

I don’t know where he’s going to land, but it would still surprise me if he ends up with the Warriors because I’ve never believed any offer they could make would stack up with those from other teams. But if Giannis uses his leverage and pushes to go there, everything is different.

Amick: To Nick’s point, it’s hard to answer this question without having total clarity on where Giannis wants to be and what he wants to do. If it’s the South Beach experience, then the Bucks should wait until the summer. If it’s to create a wildly entertaining dynamic duo with Anthony Edwards in Minnesota, then they should — wait for it — wait. Ditto for the Knicks’ situation.

But if he’s good with the Warriors partnership and is going to lean that way in the offseason anyway, then they should go now. Hold on tight for these next five days …