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Giannis Antetokounmpo strained his right calf last night and is expected to miss 2–4 weeks. That’s just in time for him to return ahead of the Feb. 5 NBA Trade Deadline, and oddsmakers already have a clear favorite if he’s not playing on the Bucks.
The New York Knicks are the second betting favorite to land Giannis at +240 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Bucks are the betting favorite at +150 on DK, with the market outcome based on the “next regular season minute played after trade deadline (2/5/2026) to be for which NBA team?”
That means sportsbooks favor Giannis to remain on the Bucks, but the Knicks are a clear favorite as second in line.
The Spurs are third at +600, followed by the Heat (+700), Raptors (+1100), Rockets (+1300) and Lakers (+1600). The implied probability difference between the Knicks and Spurs is 14.9%! A +240 bet has an implied probability of 29.4%, while a +600 bet is 14.3%.
ESPN NBA reporter Brian Windhorst reported yesterday that Giannis requested a trade from the Bucks this offseason. Windhorst followed by reporting Giannis specially wanted to be traded to the Knicks.
Ironically, Giannis suffered the calf injury on the same day Windhorst fired up the trade buzz crowd. It was a non-contact injury, but ESPN NBA reporter Sham Charania reported he will be sidelined for “approximately 2 to 4 weeks.” Thankfully, it wasn’t a torn Achilles.
That’s a good-news, bad-news situation. If he can return to the Bucks before the trade deadline and prove he’s healthy enough to play the rest of the season, the trade buzz will grow louder. However, Giannis has played less than 70 games in all but one season since 2019, and he’s now 31 years old. Still one of the most valuable players in the league, it will be interesting to see what a trade for someone like that looks like.
The Knicks, meanwhile, are third in the East, currently two games behind the Pistons in the loss column. Their window to win a title with Jalen Brunson as the centerpiece has an approaching expiration date, and trading for Giannis might be the move that pushes them over the edge. They also have the kind of win-now players the Bucks would likely want as part of a trade package for Giannis.
The Knicks are currently +1500 at DK to win the title, behind the Thunder (+150), Nuggets (+600), Rockets (+950), Lakers (+1300) and Cavs (+1400).
The Lakers are a very interesting team in these odds. They already traded for Luka Doncic last year, but might move on from LeBron James this offseason, opening up a max salary spot. I wouldn’t bet them to trade mid-year, but in the offseason, it could be an option.
This saga will drag on for at least another month-plus, likely right up until the deadline and possibly past it. I personally don’t see a trade for Giannis happening this season and would bet the Bucks in this market.
In the offseason? He’s likely gone.
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