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(Bloomberg) — A drumbeat of bearish signals is building across the crypto industry, with Standard Chartered slashing its Bitcoin price target and Coinbase Global Inc. getting cut to sell as momentum traders struggle to push Bitcoin back toward its highs.
Standard Chartered lowered its year-end 2026 Bitcoin forecast to $100,000 from $150,000 — and from $300,000 just months earlier — warning the cryptocurrency could drop to $50,000 before stabilizing. The bank pointed to weakening price momentum and a tougher macro backdrop while the token tumbled again Thursday, dropping as much as 4% to $65,079.
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“This dynamic suggests a return to last week’s lows, with a high probability of a trading range of $60,000 to $70,000 forming over the coming weeks,” Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro Group, said in a note.
Bitcoin has fallen more than 45% from its October peak near just over $126,000 and has repeatedly failed to sustain rebounds, a sign that speculative demand is thinning. The broader crypto market has shed nearly $2 trillion in value over the same stretch.
Coinbase, meanwhile, faced additional problems Thursday ahead of its scheduled earnings announcement, with customers encountering issues buying, selling and transferring on its website.
“Your funds are safe,” the largest US crypto exchange said in a post on social network X. It later said “this issue is now resolved.”
At the same time, Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co. downgraded Coinbase to sell, calling assumptions of a steady recovery “foolish + facile” given the typical length of crypto bear markets. The brokerage cut its price target by 68% to a street-low $120 and lowered revenue and earnings estimates through 2027. Coinbase fell for a third day, and was down about 8% to $140.
The Monness Crespi downgrade follows at least five other price target cuts in February by Wall Street analysts of Coinbase, which has seen its shares tumble almost 40% this year.
Coinbase, which will release fourth-quarter results after the close of equity trading, published a company-compiled list of consensus financial performance estimates earlier Thursday. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect Coinbase to report fourth-quarter earnings of 86 cents per share, an over 80% year-over-year decline, but Coinbase’s own set of analyst consensus predicts even worse results, a loss of 5 cents per share.
The synchronized downgrades highlight a shift in tone across crypto’s institutional ecosystem. Last year’s rebound narrative hinged on renewed risk appetite and breakout momentum. Instead, rallies have stalled, buyers have hesitated and analysts are dialing back expectations.
“This selloff has been less extreme than previous ones and has not seen the collapse of any digital asset platforms,” Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick wrote. That may signal a maturing market — but one where fading momentum, rather than fresh inflows, now sets the tone.
One modicum of solace: analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. argue that the retail cohort has largely “ignored” the recent crypto selloff. The group’s net positioning in IBIT, the largest spot-Bitcoin ETF, has remained roughly flat since mid-January, they wrote in a note Thursday.
“What we’re seeing today is a reset in leverage, not a collapse in conviction,” said Daniel Reis-Faria, chief executive officer of ZeroStack. “Funding rates have turned defensive, leveraged longs have largely been flushed out, and that deleveraging is healthy. This is typical late-cycle consolidation where excess risk gets cleared before the next structural move.”
–With assistance from Sidhartha Shukla, Melos Ambaye and Olga Kharif.
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