This post was originally published on this site.
I’m on the record as saying the crypto-winter has begun – and that, of course, means a Bitcoin winter, because “there is no crypto, only bitcoin.”
To me, bitcoin’s connection to Wall Street is fatal. Wall Street drains value from assets, it doesn’t inject money into markets – it farms them. That’s not to say it doesn’t have its place, but for an emerging asset like crypto or bitcoin, it acts as a predator in a naïve land. I don’t think that ends well for the asset.
However, let’s keep the words to a minimum and look at the chart:
Credit: ADVFN
A bull will see bitcoin at the bottom of an upward trend. The expectation would be to trade sideways along this level and then, at some point, break higher. The target in that scenario would be $140,000+. However, I’m not going to bother drawing that chart, because as I’ve stated, the crypto winter is here.
This is how a bear like me sees it:
Credit: ADVFN
This is a halfway pause. While both bulls and bears can agree that there is an equilibrium level here, to a bear this move is simply the midpoint before the next leg lower.
Here is what a bear would expect to see:
Credit: ADVFN
The key point is that we don’t have to be a bull or a bear – we can just observe. A W-shaped structure is very bullish, but if the subsequent support level is broken, a sharp decline typically follows:
Credit: ADVFN
In my view, bitcoin is in a bear market, and only a miracle will save it. It can happen—but I believe it won’t.