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When loosely comparing Bitcoin’s recent behavior with its historical cycles over more than a decade, many analysts point to a recurring pattern. According to this framework, the market is currently in a corrective phase that could potentially extend through most of the coming year. Such a scenario becomes more likely if Bitcoin breaks lower from its present consolidation range between $80,000 and $94,000 per coin. A downside breakout from this base could direct selling pressure toward the $74,000 area. In the shorter term, demand is clearly struggling to regain initiative, mainly due to continued outflows from ETFs, which alone saw approximately $780 million in assets under management leave the market during the holiday period.
The base case therefore assumes a further deepening of the correction, while keeping in mind that the long-term trend remains upward and that deeper pullbacks may offer opportunities to look for long positions at more favorable prices.
The holiday period was marked by a dynamic continuation of the broader uptrend in Gold prices, culminating in a breakout to new highs just below the $4,600 per ounce level. These levels proved short-lived, however, as a sharp decline erased the Christmas rally in full, pushing prices back toward the $4,300 per ounce area.
The start of the new year does not materially alter the positive medium-term outlook for gold, given expectations of further interest-rate cuts and fiscal expansion in the US, alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly those related to Taiwan. Under a minimum-target scenario, and assuming pro-growth conditions persist, gold could move toward the psychologically important $5,000 per ounce level.
When comparing gold and Bitcoin, gold currently appears more likely to maintain its upward trend. However, if the correction in BTC deepens further, its percentage upside potential becomes significantly higher, assuming a return to upward momentum. In both markets, a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve — with the market now pricing in at least 2 rate cuts over the next 12 months — should, overall, continue to favor buyers.
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Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and the associated risk belong to the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services.