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Key Takeaways
- Coking coal prices rose more than 10% year-on-year, while Bitcoin fell about 10%.
- Most of Bitcoin’s losses came after its October all-time high.
- Technical analysis points to further downside for Bitcoin toward the $69,700–$71,400 range.
Most people would rather not find coal in their Christmas stockings. This year, however, holding coal would have beaten owning Bitcoin.
While Bitcoin has declined over the past 12 months following a sharp sell-off late in the year, coking coal prices have edged higher.
The divergence highlights a rare and clear contrast between traditional “old-economy” commodities and cryptocurrencies.
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Coal or Bitcoin in Your Stocking?
Coking coal traded flat at $216 a tonne on Dec. 23 but was up 8.54% over the past month and 10.49% year-on-year, according to a contract for difference (CFD) tracking benchmark prices.
Over the same period, Bitcoin fell by about 10%, with most of the losses occurring after its October peak.
Coking coal, also known as metallurgical coal, is a key raw material used in steelmaking.
Unlike thermal coal, which is burned for power generation, coking coal is heated in blast furnaces to produce coke—an essential input in steel production.
Prices in 2025 have been supported by steady global steel demand, infrastructure spending across Asia, and supply constraints from major exporters.
At $216 a tonne, prices remain well above levels seen a year earlier.
Bitcoin as Coal Surges
Bitcoin, by contrast, is ending the year lower after a volatile period that saw it reach a record high above $126,000 in early October.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading at around $87,341, down roughly $10,000, or about 10%, from its price of approximately $ 97,676 a year earlier.
Over the same period, total cryptocurrency market capitalisation fell by around 14.5%, indicating that Bitcoin outperformed most alternative tokens despite its decline.
The bulk of the losses occurred in the fourth quarter, when leveraged positions were wiped out during a sharp sell-off in October.
Why Did Bitcoin Fall?
Analysts attribute three main factors to Bitcoin’s late-year weakness.
First, a large leverage flush in October triggered forced selling after prices retreated from record highs.
Second, demand cooled after an earlier wave of spot ETF inflows and corporate buying faded.
Third, broader macroeconomic pressures weighed on sentiment, including reduced expectations for U.S. interest-rate cuts and higher bond yields.
Bearish Outlook
Technical analysts warn that Bitcoin may not have reached a durable bottom, with chart patterns pointing to further downside into early 2026.
Valdrin Tahiri, a CCN technical analyst, said Bitcoin has been in a sustained five-wave decline since reaching its all-time high in October.
“The Bitcoin price has been in a five-wave downward movement since the all-time high in October,” Tahiri said.
“If this count is accurate, Bitcoin’s price is in the fifth and final wave of the decline,” he added.
Tahiri also noted that seasonal factors are unlikely to disrupt the prevailing trend, stating that Bitcoin’s historical price action around Christmas has rarely produced lasting reversals.
“Bitcoin’s Christmas performance has been consistent for years,” he said. “Whether the market was bullish or bearish, holiday price action rarely caused a lasting reversal.”
Instead, Bitcoin has typically resumed its existing trend after the holiday period.
“Thus, if previous history is followed, whatever happens on Christmas will not reverse the ongoing downward trend,” Tahiri said.
“Rather, the Bitcoin price is likely to continue declining until it reaches $69,700 to $71,400.”
In comments earlier this month, Tahiri said Bitcoin’s technical structure had turned decisively bearish after breaking down from a key chart formation.
“Bitcoin’s technical analysis is bearish,” he said on Dec. 18.
“The BTC price has started the fifth and final wave in its downward movement after breaking down from an ascending parallel channel.”
He added that the projected decline would likely complete the broader correction before any recovery attempt begins.
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