This post was originally published on this site.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin momentum weakens as shark wallets shift to distribution.
- Negative on-chain activity signals fading underlying demand.
- BTC risks a deeper pullback unless buying pressure returns
As 2025 draws to a close, Bitcoin’s (BTC) price appears to have lost momentum.
Year-to-date (YTD), Bitcoin’s price has decreased by 6.83% while trading near $ 87,964.
While some might hope that 2026 will offer new hope, on-chain analysis reveals that the flagship cryptocurrency may struggle.
Here is why and the potential targets.
Bitcoin Sharks Turn Sellers
Between September and the first week of November, the number of Bitcoin “sharks.”
For context, sharks are wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC.
This cohort is often viewed as a key liquidity bridge between retail traders and large institutional holders, and their accumulation phase has historically coincided with periods of price explosion.
That buildup aligned with Bitcoin’s push to new highs, suggesting that mid-sized, conviction-driven investors were actively positioning ahead of the rally.
In recent weeks, however, the trend has reversed.
Data show a notable decline in the number of shark wallets, indicating that this group has been aggressively distributing their holdings rather than accumulating them.
Unlike short-term retail sales, shark distribution tends to have a greater market impact. This is because these wallets are large enough to influence liquidity but active enough to transact frequently.
When sharks shift from accumulation to distribution, it introduces sustained sell-side pressure, absorbing buy demand and limiting upside follow-through.
If this behavior persists, Bitcoin’s price could remain capped or face deeper pullbacks as the market works to digest the additional supply entering circulation.
Coins Lacks Network Support
Adding to this cautious outlook, Bitcoin’s Price Daily Active Addresses (DAA) divergence has remained firmly in negative territory.
This metric compares price action with changes in network activity, and a sustained negative reading suggests that price is rising—or attempting to stabilize, without a corresponding increase in on-chain usage.
In practical terms, the negative DAA divergence implies weakening demand beneath the surface.
Should fewer active addresses continue to support the current price action, Bitcoin’s price might be more vulnerable to pullbacks.
BTC Price Analysis: Not Bullish
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s price has failed to reclaim the $88,000 level.
On the daily chart, BTC continues to trade within a descending triangle, with horizontal support clustered around $84,020.
This formation maintains downside pressure, particularly as momentum indicators show little evidence of sustained accumulation.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has slipped below the zero line, signaling net capital outflows and reinforcing the prevailing bearish bias.
If this setup persists, BTC price risks a breakdown toward the $80,347 region, potentially keeping it subdued through the holiday period.
That said, the setup remains conditional rather than definitive. A shift in buying pressure, supported by improving volume, could invalidate the pattern and reopen higher levels.
In that scenario, Bitcoin may attempt a recovery toward $91,205.
However, such a move would necessitate a significant shift in market participation, rather than a brief surge.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.