AppLovin Sinks As Investors Seek Faster E-Commerce Growth, Stronger AI Guidance

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Shares of Applovin Corp (NASDAQ:APP) nosedived in early trading on Thursday, after the company reported its fourth-quarter results.

Here are the key analyst insights:

Check out other analyst stock ratings.

Wedbush: Applovin delivered an “exceptional” beat-and-raise quarter, “reinforcing its position as the preeminent AI-driven software platform in the mobile advertising ecosystem,” Reese wrote in a note. The company reported revenue of $1.658 billion and earnings of $3.24 per share, topping consensus estimates of $1.610 billion and $2.95 per share, respectively, she added.

Applovin achieved a record margin of 84.4% in the quarter and “highlighted the massive growth opportunity it has in years ahead,” the analyst further stated.

BTIG: Applovin’s first-quarter guidance was “substantially better than we expected,” implying sequential growth in the high single digits, Lampen said. He added, however, that expectations were for a stronger guidance and commentary around new product drivers and model improvement.

The company is likely to launch the GA program in the first half of this year, the analyst stated. The “more measured commentary” is understandable as it is “still very early in the lifecycle of the Axon product with tremendous runway for future growth,” the analyst further stated.

Needham: “Given the advanced in technology, the state of the competitive environment is more fluid than it used to be, however, we believe management did a good job at explaining how the competitive bear case is over blown,” McTernan wrote. He added that management addressed the following areas of concern:

BofA Securities: Applovin generated 18% sequential growth in revenue, below BofA’s estimate of 22% growth, Dessouky said. eCommerce, which was “the wildcard” in the quarter, did not deliver a beat, he added.

“About half our clients expected a higher eCommerce contribution like we did,” the analyst wrote. He reduced the 2026 eCommerce estimates from $2.7 billion to $2 billion, given the lack of upside in the fourth quarter.

JPMorgan: Although Applovin’s sequential revenue growth of 18% topped guidance of 12%-14%, it missed “our previewed investor expectation of ~20%,” Carpenter said. Growth was again driven by gaming, which suggests that the e-commerce contribution in the quarter missed the “elevated expectations,” he added.

Management’s revenue guidance for 5%-7% sequential growth in the first quarter came in better than expected, the analyst stated. “We believe mgmt expects gaming and e-commerce revenue to grow sequentially in 1Q,” he further wrote.

APP Price Action: AppLovin shares were down 18.51% at $372.26 at the time of publication on Thursday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Photo: Piotr Swat / Shutterstock

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