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In 2025, U.S. e-commerce underwent an unprecedented reconfiguration. The tariff policies implemented by the U.S. government—following Donald Trump’s return to the White House—have disrupted the balance among global digital giants, favoring domestic companies while slowing the meteoric rise of foreign platforms. According to the report “Rewriting the U.S. E-commerce Playbook”, produced by Statista and Semrush (2025), economic protectionism, inflation, and the rise of artificial intelligence are redrawing the global e-commerce map, with the United States at its epicenter.
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How did the new tariffs affect e-commerce in the United States?
The impact of import tariffs on digital commerce is deep and measurable. Statista estimates that the total value of U.S. e-commerce will reach $1.17 trillion in 2025, a 12.9% increase compared to 2024. However, under a scenario of high tariffs, the market volume could drop below $1 trillion, marking a historic slowdown.
The imposition of fees on products coming from Asia—especially from China—has triggered a chain reaction. 76% of Amazon sellers in the U.S. reported an increase in the cost of goods, while 63% had to raise prices, and 44% of consumers said they avoid foreign online stores.
Rising costs have hit both sellers and consumers: nearly half of U.S. shoppers (43%) have postponed online purchases due to pricing uncertainty.
Why is Amazon able to maintain its dominance while Temu and Shein lose ground?
The report’s data is clear: Amazon remains the undisputed leader in U.S. e-commerce, with a gross merchandise value (GMV) of $394.556 billion in 2024. Far behind is Walmart, with $159.926 billion, followed by eBay ($29.607 billion) and Shein, which reached $23.597 billion, outperforming its rival Temu, with $16.336 billion.
However, traffic and download trends show a shift in momentum. Between January and June 2025, traffic to Asian domains fell 25%, while U.S. platforms recorded only an 8% decline, according to Semrush Traffic & Market. Over that same period, Temu saw a 27% drop in monthly visits in the U.S., after a year of extraordinary expansion.
The causes are multiple: import costs, consumer distrust, and loss of price competitiveness. The study notes that the elimination of the de minimis rule—which exempted low-cost foreign goods from taxes—directly hit Temu and Shein’s business models, whose main advantage was offering ultra-cheap products with free shipping.
What factors explain Temu and Shein’s sharp decline in the U.S. market?
In 2024, Temu and Shein dominated app stores. Temu was the most downloaded shopping app in the country, followed by Shein, Walmart, and Amazon. But in 2025, the numbers changed drastically:
- Temu and Shein’s monthly active users fell from 25–35 million to fewer than 10 million, according to AppMagic.
- Reduced tax advantages and tariffs on low-cost products drove prices up and slowed deliveries.
- In terms of perception, U.S. consumer trust in these platforms deteriorated due to concerns about product quality and traceability.
In addition, trade tensions between the U.S. and China have reshaped digital marketing strategies. Platforms like Temu and Shein—whose 2023 growth relied on aggressive campaigns and influencers—have reduced their ad spending by as much as 20%, prioritizing operational survival.
Meanwhile, Amazon has been able to capitalize on the context. Its domestic logistics structure, preferential access to local inventory, and integration of AI-powered personalized recommendations have allowed it to increase operating margins and sustain digital traffic even in a difficult environment.
Which other players are gaining momentum in this new e-commerce landscape?
Digital protectionism has also created new winners. Walmart, Target, Costco, and CVS are the platforms that adapted best to the shift.
- Target.com increased its traffic by 24% year-over-year.
- DoorDash.com, boosted by the boom in online food and beverage (the fastest-growing sector), rose 21%.
- Costco.com saw a 3.6% increase, while Walmart.com posted a modest but steady 2.1%.
By contrast, specialized electronics retailers lost ground:
- Samsung.com fell 33%,
- T-Mobile.com dropped 18%,
- and BestBuy.com by 6.3%.
In the fashion category, only retailers with local operations and proprietary logistics chains were able to sustain traffic levels. The report also reveals that the most digitalized and high-income states, such as New York, California, and Maryland, led online traffic growth with increases above 5% annually, while rural states like Montana or Alaska suffered declines of up to -6.8%.
What role do consumers play in the consolidation of local brands?
U.S. consumers have become more strategic and less impulsive. According to Statista Consumer Insights, 44% of online shoppers avoid foreign stores, and 35% support higher tariffs as a way to protect domestic production.
The “buy local, trust local” mindset has become a cultural value within the digital ecosystem, fueled both by the political climate and the demand for faster deliveries and more personalized service.
This shift is also reshaping payment methods: the Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) system now exceeds $122 billion in transactions, while Apple Pay and PayPal dominate mobile payments.
Today’s digital buyer doesn’t just demand convenience—they also seek transparency, traceability, and a sense of belonging, a combination that benefits companies with local presence and certified operations.
What role does artificial intelligence play in the new e-commerce structure?
Alongside tariff policies, artificial intelligence (AI) is driving a second structural shift.
The Statista and Semrush study explains that 61% of U.S. e-commerce companies use AI in customer service, 60% in marketing analytics, and 40% to create content or automate administrative processes.
In addition, AI-generated traffic—coming from tools like ChatGPT, Copilot, or Gemini—grew 35x between January 2024 and June 2025, reaching more than 4 million monthly visits.
This means consumers are not only shopping online—they are also discovering products through AI assistants, reshaping positioning strategies.
In that context, the most technologically integrated platforms—such as Amazon or Target—gain a competitive edge by being able to personalize recommendations and optimize advertising using predictive data.
What will happen to e-commerce in 2026?
U.S. e-commerce is moving toward a hybrid model: domestic in production, global in technology. The reshoring of manufacturing, higher tariffs, and AI-driven automation are shaping an environment where local brands consolidate their dominance and foreign players must reinvent themselves to survive.
Despite uncertainty, the report projects that the industry will continue growing in the long term.
If trade policies remain in place, the United States could reach $1.5 trillion in digital sales by 2030, driven by categories such as food, fashion, furniture, and home technology.