This post was originally published on this site.
One of the major goals for the Kansas City Royals this offseason was to acquire an impact bat, particularly one that could play corner outfield. It seemed logical that the Royals should be able to sell from their starting pitching depth, and possibly tap into their minor league catching depth as well, to find a team that had excess outfielders but needed starting pitching.
The Boston Red Sox were an obvious fit, and there have been a lot of rumors surrounding the Red Sox and the Royals making a trade. Those rumors centered on the Royals acquiring outfielder Jarren Duran, but what the Royals would send back in return didn’t seem to align with what the Red Sox would want. Boston GM Craig Breslow was allegedly looking for Cole Ragans in return, while the Royals were offering Kris Bubic (presumably plus some minor leaguers). The rumors have been quiet for a while, and with the Red Sox’s recent signing of Ranger Suárez to a five-year, $130 million deal, it seems extremely unlikely that Boston will be looking for any more pitching. In fact, they are rumored to be interested in selling pitching themselves. Ken Rosenthal at The Athletic also reporte that the Royals no longer expect to add either Duran or Brendan Donovan.
The Royals haven’t been idle themselves, signing Lane Thomas and trading for Isaac Collins in an effort to improve their roster. While I wouldn’t describe either as an “impact bat,” they both should be floor-raisers and help improve the literally worst outfield in baseball next season. The Royals also did not need to trade from their starting pitching depth to acquire Thomas or Collins. Thomas signed as a free agent, and Collins was traded by the Milwaukee Brewers to the Royals for Angel Zerpa.
J.J. Piccolo is now in an interesting position with the roster. He’s improved the team from the outside without spending the “currency of baseball” that it was anticipated he would need to spend to improve the roster. Simply raising the floor on an outfield that was worth -1.1 fWAR should help the team dramatically. While we can’t predict the future, it’s reasonable to project that the Royals will be better in the outfield this year. It’s also reasonable to hope that one of Carter Jensen or Jac Caglianone steps up and becomes the impact bat the Royals were looking for this offseason, but have not acquired. The team still has a lot of eggs in the “young guys step up and succeed” basket, but that may be the best option if they can’t find a pitcher-for–major league outfielder trade that makes sense.
How the offseason has played out still leaves the Royals with enviable depth at starting pitching. There are still teams looking for starting pitching and presumably will be into spring training. Inevitably, some pitchers will get hurt during spring training or at the World Baseball Classic, which could make some teams even more desperate for pitching. While it doesn’t seem like there is a perfect pitcher-for–position player swap sitting out there, some team would presumably be willing to trade for a pitcher if the price is prospects, particularly prospects that aren’t expected to help the major league team. The Royals’ farm system, as noted by Matthew LaMar, is still lacking depth. That leads to the question: If you were in charge of the Royals, would you try shopping a pitcher for prospects?
Mackenzie Gore and Freddy Peralta both commanded strong prospect packages for the Washington Nationals and the Milwaukee Brewers, showing that high-quality starting pitching – albeit with multiple years of control – is still commanding a premium on the trade market. I don’t think the Royals would ever make him available like this, but even with his injury history, I assume Cole Ragans could fetch a similar prospect package, if not better. Kris Bubic, with his injury history and just one year of control left, wouldn’t do as well, but the prospect(s) you could theoretically acquire for him might be a better quality of player than what teams were offering. Maybe there is a team that covets the years of control attached to Noah Cameron or Ryan Bergert, allowing the Royals to acquire multiple players who could help down the road.
Making a trade like this would be a very Rays- or Brewers-like move. You would be moving something from the major league roster that you expect to help this year in order to feed the prospect promotion machine and help the organization in the future. You would have to be very confident that the rest of the major league roster could pick up the slack this season—or not be overly concerned with winning this specific year—while trying to raise the floor of the organization one small move at a time.
Right now, having a projected #5 starter in Noah Cameron, with both Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek not expected to make the Opening Day rotation, feels like an overabundance of quality starting pitching. The Royals’ farm system is improving slowly, but “slowly” is the key word. It makes some rational sense to take from an area where the depth might not help you much this year and turn that into players who could help in the future, either on the roster or in future trades. Of course, pitcher injuries are very real, and what feels like an overabundance of pitching right now could quickly feel like not enough if Royals starters start going down at the rate they did last year. It would be a risk—one that could hurt the 2026 Royals’ chances—but it’s also the kind of transactional move I’m fairly confident other GMs would make.
I think it’s fairly unlikely that the Royals would move one of their starters strictly for prospects. I don’t think they have had enough major league success to make a move that could backfire and hurt the team this year, even if we can envision a scenario where they trade a pitcher, add prospect help, and still make the playoffs. Unless a team overwhelmed me with prospects, I wouldn’t want to make a trade like this if I were Piccolo.
The fact that I’m fairly certain the Brewers would make a move like this, however, makes me want to at least consider the idea rather than dismiss it out of hand. They have remained successful at the major league level while reloading their farm system for future years, and I would like the Royals to reach that level at some point. What do you all think? Should the Royals carry their starting pitching depth into the season, or should they trade a starter for future help?