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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) has been drawing attention as investors reassess income focused real estate names, with its recent share performance and financial profile putting the stock back into portfolio conversations.
See our latest analysis for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance.
At a share price of US$10.12, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance has seen modest recent momentum, with a year to date share price return of 2.64%, while its 1 year total shareholder return of 24.99% points to income and reinvested dividends playing a meaningful role in overall results.
If this kind of income focused story has your attention, it can be useful to compare it with other ideas through fast growing stocks with high insider ownership and see what else stands out.
With ARI trading at US$10.12 and sitting about 8% below analysts’ average price target of US$10.96, the real question is whether that gap signals a genuine opportunity or if the market is already accounting for future growth.
The most followed narrative puts Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance’s fair value at $10.55, slightly above the last close at $10.12, which frames a tight valuation gap for investors to weigh.
Record level originations across the Apollo real estate credit platform, with over $19 billion closed year to date and $3 billion committed by ARI, position the company to capture renewed transaction activity in U.S. and European real estate. This supports loan growth and interest income over the next several years, which should lift revenue and earnings.
Curious how a modest earnings growth profile can still back up this fair value? The narrative focuses on margin expansion and a recalibrated earnings multiple. Want to see which revenue assumptions and profitability shifts are most influential in that model? The full story connects those elements in a way the current share price does not spell out.
Result: Fair Value of $10.55 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, there is still a chance that stronger European property fundamentals or a smoother focus asset exit could push revenue, earnings and the share price above current assumptions.
Find out about the key risks to this Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance narrative.
If you look at the numbers differently or simply like building your own view from the raw data, you can quickly shape a custom thesis for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Do it your way.
A great starting point for your Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
If ARI has sparked your interest, you may want to broaden your watchlist with a few focused stock ideas that could help shape your next move.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include ARI.
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