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Giannis Antetokounmpo could be traded by the Feb. 5 trade deadline.
The Milwaukee Bucks are in 11th place in the Eastern Conference, and they don’t have the assets and young pieces to make a significant trade to bolster their chances.
Antetokounmpo is also out with a calf injury, and he has no timetable for a return.
The Bucks could wait until the offseason to trade Antetokounmpo, but if they get a good enough offer, why not trade him now?
The Golden State Warriors don’t have the young players to intrigue the Bucks, but they do have enough high-value draft capital to have a shot at winning the Antetokounmpo sweepstakes.
The Warriors run the risk of looking a lot like the Bucks in a few years after trading for Antetokounmpo. In that case, Golden State’s draft assets from 2030 to 2032 would be extremely valuable.
Here is what an Antetokounmpo-to-the-Warriors trade could look like.
The Trade
Warriors get: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kyle Kuzma
Bucks get: Jimmy Butler, Jonathan Kuminga, Brandin Podziemski, 2026 unprotected first-round pick, 2028 unprotected first-round pick, 2030 first-round pick (protected 21-30), 2031 unprotected first-round pick swap, 2032 unprotected first-round pick
Why the Warriors Do It
Antetokounmpo and Stephen Curry would be the NBA’s best tandem, and the Warriors would immediately be in the NBA title race.
The cost is enormous, so there would have to be some assurance that he’d sign an extension before the start of next season.
Once he signs that extension, there isn’t nearly as much risk that this trade blows up in your face. Even if things go south a few seasons in, the Warriors could trade him—assuming he’s still an elite player—for some of the draft capital they gave up.
Antetokounmpo isn’t exactly young anymore—he turned 31 in December. There’s a chance he doesn’t age as gracefully as Curry and other current stars.
But I suspect he has several elite seasons left. His game has evolved, as he’s shooting a career-high 39.5 percent from three. But it’s more than just that.
He’s taking only 16.2 field-goal attempts per game, which is his lowest average since his fourth season. But that’s resulted in a career-high 64.5 percent field-goal percentage, and he’s still averaging 28.0 points per game despite not looking to score as often.
Antetokounmpo would be justified taking lots of mid-range jumpers, but instead he’s picking his spots en route to amazing efficiency. That tells me he would thrive with Curry, as both are capable of taking what the defense gives them.
Of course, the Warriors would be worried that Curry would be fading and/or retired by the 2029-30 season, which could mean the picks given up from 2030 to 2032 would be painfully valuable. But that’s the price you have to pay to get a top-five player in his early 30s. If it results in a championship, it would be worth the lean the years in early 2030s.
Why the Bucks Do It
The Bucks can surely get offers with much better young players for Antetokounmpo if they wait until the offseason to make an Antetokounmpo trade.
But there’s a chance no team offers first-round capital from 2030 to 2032 that could be so valuable.
That draft capital could be Milwaukee’s ticket to a dominant Eastern Conference run in the mid-2030s. And that should be the team’s goal, as any serious contention is unlikely before then.
As part of their demand to agree to this trade, the Bucks a) get off Kuzma’s deal and b) get the very tradable contracts of Kuminga and Podz, which will result in more draft capital if they want to reroute them.
If the Bucks wait until the offseason, the Warriors might not offer a package quite this appealing. Part of the reason the Warriors go all-in now is the fact that they know Curry doesn’t have many elite years left, so getting a title chance this season makes them more justified giving up four unprotected firsts and one swap.
It wouldn’t surprise me if the Bucks ended up buying out Butler so he can join a contender next season. He’s part of this trade for money-matching purposes—not for the Bucks to trade him for value down the road.
The next few years will sting. The Bucks, who have traded or given up swap rights to their next five first-round picks, will be one of the worst teams in the sport, and their rebuild will take time.
But their long-term future will be much brighter the moment they make this trade.