This post was originally published on this site.
Gold crossed $5,000 for the first time, but digital gold is not shining — bitcoin has been stuck in the $86,126 to $88,607 range over the past 24 hours, in what some see as the start of a bear market amid accruing challenges.
“While surveys suggest institutional investors are still bullish over the long term, fears are growing that bitcoin is entering a bear market — with a large proportion of institutional investors believing it may already be in one,” Nic Puckrin, cofounder of Coin Bureau, told Sherwood News.
Puckrin said the chart is currently looking weak, and though a short-term recovery to around $92,000 is likely, the longer bitcoin remains under $100,000, the more momentum will trend to the downside, despite the return of dollar debasement fears.
“While a new all-time high this year still isn’t out of the question, the next 30 days will be crucial in determining whether a bear market is already here,” Puckrin said.
Short-term, bitcoin is facing several headwinds, including another looming government shutdown, geopolitical tensions, the upcoming 2026 FOMC meeting, and worries that tech earnings will disappoint, which could bring more volatility and sell-offs, dragging bitcoin down with it.
Ray Youssef, CEO of crypto app NoOnes, said that despite attempts to position BTC as digital gold, the market is increasingly showing the opposite: during periods of political turbulence, capital flows into precious metals, not crypto, creating a complicated backdrop for a market rally.
“Bitcoin remains stuck in a reactive, volatile mode, with an estimated base range for the week at $85,000–$90,000. An escalation of geopolitical tensions, including the Iran factor, as well as a jump in oil prices, increases the risks of a decline to the mid-$70,000 range,” Youssef said.
Farzam Ehsani, cofounder and CEO of VALR, also said that bitcoin’s recent weakness and market fragility are likely to prompt participants to seek hedged positions, reduce exposure, and preserve capital.
Ehsani said the energy sector and corporate earnings season add another layer of risk, given the negative correlation between crypto assets and oil price hikes and repeated examples of stock sell-offs spilling over into crypto.
“If major tech companies miss earnings expectations and geopolitical conflict disrupts key oil distribution channels, BTC could see a deeper decline into the mid-$70,000s,” he said.
Meanwhile, bitcoin ETFs shed a whopping $1.3 billion last week, the largest weekly outflows since November 21, according to SoSoValue, and CoinMarketCap’s Fear & Greed Index is back in the fear zone, standing at 29.