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Global air cargo saw an early festive lift in November, with demand rising five per cent year-on-year (YoY), although the sector’s e-commerce-driven momentum of the past two years is losing pace, according to Xeneta’s latest market update.
The strong November result followed unexpectedly firm growth in September and October at three per cent and four per cent respectively, keeping the industry on track to post four per cent expansion in 2025 before a tougher 2026.
Capacity growth in November broadly matched demand yet supply over the year lagged the surge in volumes. Despite this gradual rebalancing, global cargo spot rates have not eased meaningfully. Rates fell five per cent YoY in November to $2.73 per kg, steeper than the three per cent decline seen in October.
Carriers appear to be pursuing market share at the expense of pricing discipline, pressuring yields in an already subdued market. Month-on-month (MoM), spot rates rose six per cent, below last year’s nine per cent increase, Xeneta said in a release.
All major corridors recorded lower YoY spot rates. Europe–North America posted its first annual decline at eight per cent, while MoM rates climbed twenty-seven per cent, much weaker than the forty-two per cent spike seen a year earlier when freighter capacity was shifted toward e-commerce lanes.
Northeast Asia showed more resilience as carriers redeployed capacity between transpacific and Asia–Europe routes, producing only single-digit annual falls and strong Black Friday-driven monthly gains. Southeast Asia weakened sharply, with double-digit rate declines into both North America and Europe amid surging capacity, softer volumes, and the impact of de minimis restrictions at key hubs. Backhaul traffic remained muted.
Market performance exceeded expectations set earlier in the year, helped by traditional shippers sticking to annual shipping cycles and improved clarity on US trade tariffs. But regulatory shifts could reshape flows in 2026.
“We are now seeing studies on the impact of actual implemented US tariffs and despite all the noise, the global average seems to be in the 10-12 per cent range and not the 30, 40, 50 or 100 per cent levels that were threatened in April. So, while the impact is there and it is unsettling for the airfreight market, it’s not as dramatic as was feared and is not yet hitting consumer demand to a concerning level,” said Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer.
“Some shippers have absorbed the increases and are yet to pass on these extra costs to consumers, but with stocks running low and inventory replenishment on the horizon, we expect to see more tariff impact on air cargo volumes next year. US consumer confidence is reportedly starting to fall, and higher prices next year are likely to exacerbate this sentiment.” Wouw continued.
China’s cross-border e-commerce trends also added headwinds to global air cargo flows. After twenty-seven months of nearly forty per cent annual growth, China’s total cross-border e-commerce sales were flat in October, based on the latest market data from China Customs.
Even a forty-seven per cent surge into Europe was overshadowed by a three per cent drop to the rest of Asia and a steep fifty-one per cent collapse in volumes to the US under the new post–de minimis environment, further cooling demand momentum.
“I doubt the global economic concerns will greatly impact the likes of Temu because of the ability of China’s factories to produce stuff at a very low cost for consumers willing to buy them, but the big question for the air cargo industry is whether China’s e-commerce volumes to the world can keep on growing as they have been? The indicators suggest it will be very difficult to maintain – and we’re already starting to pick up on flattish growth of ecommerce YoY, which is not something we’ve seen in the last 2 years,” Wouw added.
The EU is preparing accelerated de-minimis reforms to tackle undervaluation in low-value consignments, after handling 4.6 billion such parcels in 2024, up to sixty-five per cent of which were believed undervalued. Ninety-one per cent of EU e-commerce parcels under €150 originated from China. While temporary measures such as flat handling fees may have limited impact on demand, any changes that slow supply chains or impose substantial extra costs could weigh on air cargo volumes.
Heading into the New Year, Xeneta expects only low single-digit demand growth for 2026 as market conditions become more challenging.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (HU)