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Global air cargo volumes increased by 5% year-on-year in November, continuing the strong demand seen in recent months. The steady rise puts the market on track for 4% growth in 2025, but industry analysts warn that the main growth driver of the past two years – e-commerce – is now losing steam, according to Xeneta.
Demand for air cargo entered the last quarter of the year on firmer ground than expected. September recorded 3% growth and October was up 4%, leading into a stronger November peak than early forecasts suggested. However, 2026 is expected to be a more difficult year.
Capacity growth in November was broadly in line with demand, although supply expansion has been slower overall this year. The market rebalancing has not yet produced a meaningful fall in spot rates. Global air cargo spot rates declined 5% year-on-year to USD 2.73 per kg, a sharper drop than the 3% decline in October. The trend points to carriers chasing market share, which is squeezing yields in a soft market. Month-on-month, spot rates rose 6% in November, below the 9% growth seen a year earlier.
Rates decline across major trade lanes
Spot rates fell on all main trade corridors. The Europe–North America lane saw its first year-on-year drop, down 8%, a faster fall than the global average. The corridor still showed a 27% month-on-month rise in November, but this was far below the 42% jump recorded when more freighter capacity was shifted to e-commerce routes.
Northeast Asia performed better. Freighter capacity was moved from the transpacific to the Asia–Europe market, helping stabilise yields on both trades. Spot rates from Northeast Asia into North America and Europe fell only by single digits year-on-year in November, and the Black Friday season delivered double-digit month-on-month gains.
By contrast, Southeast Asia saw double-digit declines on routes to both North America and Europe. This reflects added carrier capacity in pursuit of nearly 50% demand growth, especially into North America, along with weaker volumes linked to e-commerce de-minimis restrictions at key hubs in Northeast Asia. Backhaul trades remained quiet with plenty of capacity and only small movements in rates.
Market performance in November was better than expected earlier in the year. Many traditional shippers maintained their annual shipping patterns, and the impact of US trade tariffs proved to be less severe than feared, said Xeneta Chief Airfreight Officer Niall van de Wouw.
Tariffs lower than expected
“We are now seeing studies on the impact of actual implemented US tariffs and despite all the noise, the global average seems to be in the 10-12% range and not the 30, 40, 50 or 100% levels that were threatened in April. So, while the impact is there and it is unsettling for the airfreight market, it’s not as dramatic as was feared and is not yet hitting consumer demand to a concerning level,” he said.
He warned, however, that the situation could change in 2026. Some shippers have absorbed extra charges and have not yet passed them on to consumers. With inventories running low and replenishment expected, van de Wouw said tariff impact on air cargo volumes will become more visible next year. Falling US consumer confidence and higher prices are likely to worsen the outlook.
E-commerce growth slows after two strong years
Van de Wouw said the industry is “busy getting through the quarter” in Q4, but data for the sector’s recent growth engine is worrying.
“This is by no means a peak season, but it’s a busier season than looked possible a few months ago. But after two years in which the growth of air cargo has been so reliant on e-commerce, there is now a question mark over demand for cargo capacity in the coming year,” he said. He added that low-cost production in China will continue to support buying activity, but the question is whether China’s e-commerce volumes can keep growing.
“Indicators suggest it will be very difficult to maintain – and we’re already starting to pick up on flattish growth of e-commerce year-on-year, which is not something we’ve seen in the last 2 years,” he said.
Flat October for China’s cross-border e-commerce
After 27 consecutive months of nearly 40% annual growth, China’s cross-border e-commerce sales were flat in October, according to China Customs. Strong growth to Europe, up 47%, was cancelled out by weaker markets elsewhere: volumes to the rest of Asia fell 3% and shipments to the US plunged 51% due to a new post de-minimis environment.
European volumes could also be affected. The EU plans to introduce accelerated de-minimis reform in 2026 to close gaps used by low-value shipments. The EU handled around 4.6 billion parcels in 2024, and as many as 65% were believed to be undervalued. China accounted for 91% of shipments under EUR 150.
Proposals include a flat EUR 2 handling fee for direct-to-consumer parcels and EUR 0.5 for warehouse-handled goods. These charges are not expected to hit demand heavily, as they remain a small cost compared with alternatives. A greater impact on air cargo would come from slower supply chains or major additional fees, van de Wouw said.
Modest growth expected in 2026
Looking ahead, the air cargo market expects only low single-digit growth next year.
“We expect supply to grow more than demand in 2026, and that will have an impact on rates. I also do not think low, single-digit demand growth will satisfy the appetite and ambition of freight forwarders, especially the listed ones that need to grow much faster in the market. So, the only way to do that is to grab market share, which would place a further downward pressure on rates in favour of shippers,” van de Wouw said.
He added that airlines are now coming to Xeneta to better understand shipper rates and compare them with forwarder information. “Right now, the consensus is the market will do well to achieve demand growth of 2-3% in 2026,” he said.