It is time to start talking about the Pittsburgh Penguins trade deadline plans

It may not have been their best overall performance of the season so far, but the Pittsburgh Penguins 6-2 win over the Edmonton Oilers on Thursday night is certainly high on the rankings. They had every reason to lose that game just simply based on the schedule and the matchup.

The Oilers have dunked on the Penguins pretty much every time they have played them over the past four or five years, the Oilers were rested, the Penguins were playing the second half of a back-to-back and their fourth game in six days, they are three games into an extended road trip and they did not have one of their top defenseman in the lineup (Kris Letang). They were also playing their backup goalie.

When the week began I had that game penciled in as a loss just based on all of that. Not only did the Penguins win, they did to the Oilers what the Oilers have recently done to the Penguins and just dunked all over them. They gave up some chances, but Arturs Silovs was great and the Penguins feasted on their former goalie (Tristan Jarry). Anthony Mantha scored two goals, Evgeni Malkin showed he still has the juice, and Egor Chinakhov scored another goal on a shot so ridiculous nobody even saw it actually go into the net.

It has the Penguins in the second spot of the Metropolitan Division after 50 games and starting to very much look like a playoff team. Not just in the results, but also in the process behind the results.

They have a top-10 points percentage in the NHL, tied for the fifth-best in the Eastern Conference and are only two points back (with a game in hand) of the fourth-best team in the Eastern Conference.

They are also a top-10 team league-wide in pretty much every underlying 5-on-5 metric when it comes expected goals and scoring chances, while also consistently improving their overall defensive metrics.

If it looks like a duck, and if it quacks like a duck….

This is all important to keep in mind because the Penguins have just 11 games before the 2025-26 NHL Trade Deadline, and general manager Kyle Dubas and his staff have to be having a lot of discussions right now. Not only about potential trades, but also simply what their overall plan is going to be.

Buy? Sell? Stick to the plan? All of the above? It is going to be fascinating to watch.

Just for laughs, here is where the Penguins have been (and ranked) after 50 games over the past eight seasons in terms of their place in the league standings, and their overall ranks in 5-on-5 goal differential, expected goal share, scoring chance share, high-danger scoring chance share and expected goals against per 60 minutes.

This is the Penguins best record and best placement in the standings since the 2021-22 season, which was also their most recent Stanley Cup Playoff appearance. It is also one of the few times over the past eight years where they have consistently been in the top-10 across all of the scoring chance and expected goal metrics. They are 13 points ahead of where they were at this point a year ago and significantly better in terms of where they rank in their underlying metrics. The 2023-24 team had similar rankings in those metrics, but were not getting the same results and were eight points back of the current pace. That team missed the playoffs by just three points. They are two points ahead of the 2022-23 pace, but that team was much worse with its process. That team missed the playoffs by one point.

This team does not just simply have a better record than their most recent teams. It is also playing better. Significantly so.

This is not a Stanley Cup contending team right now. Not this season. It might be a pretty good team. It is starting to look like it is a pretty good team. Even during that losing streak back in December they were still carrying and controlling games for the most part. They have certainly left some points on the table, and that might end up looming large, but they have also picked up a lot of points. There is a lot to be said for that response. There is a lot to be said for how they have played, how they are playing and perhaps more importantly, how (and where) they are improving.

The forward group has no real weaknesses. There is not a single line you do not want to see on the ice at any point in any game. They can roll four lines and keep controlling the game with any of them. The goaltending has been inconsistent at times, but winnable. Erik Karlsson is playing the way they expected Erik Karlsson to play when they originally traded for him a few years ago.

So how do the Penguins play this over the next month-and-a-half? There is obviously going to be a wait-and-see element to this and how those 11 games go. The most sensible approach is stay the course and let these guys show what they have. Whatever happens, you have a full season sampling here and can make your adjustments and changes as needed in the offseason.

Mantha is going to be the curious case because I always imagined he was signed with the intention of being this year’s Anthony Beauvillier. Cheap contract, hope for some production in the top-six of the lineup, then flip him at the trade deadline in March for some additional future assets. He has been better and way more productive than Beauvillier, and should not only bring a comparable return (a second-round pick), but perhaps even more given how much more he has produced. He is also the big-body presence that NHL general managers love at this time of year. Trading him could also open up a roster spot for one of the young kids in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton right now like Rutger McGroarty or Ville Koivunen.

If this group keeps playing the way they are, however, it would be difficult to disrupt that. They deserve a chance to take a kick at the can and see what happens.

The Penguins still have more draft capital, and especially in the first three rounds, than any other team in the NHL over the next three-or-four years. They could certainly use more of those assets, but it is also not a huge necessity.

Strategic buying is certainly within reason. The Penguins should not trade anything significant for a short-term rental, but if you can find a player that has long-term value beyond this season, that should be in play.

Dallas Stars forward Jason Robertson has been the big name kicked around given his contract status, and the Penguins certainly have the salary cap space to pay him what he wants in the future, but that does not seem like a trade deadline move. That is an offseason move. The option for that discussion will almost certainly still be there then when Dallas might be more inclined (or likely) to make a move involving him.

The ideal trade option would be trying to find a young defenseman (or some sort of young high-level talent) that has upside and term/team control remaining. Depending on the player, the contract and the upside, I would not be opposed to being aggressive if it is a true hockey trade. The Penguins have salary cap space and assets to move, and given how active Dubas and the Penguins have been over the past year-and-a-half I can not imagine they are going to just sit and do nothing.

Even if it requires a young forward or one of those draft picks, if you can find somebody that fills that need you should not ignore it. Even if the cost is high. As long as it is a hockey trade and fits in to the long-term plan, it can work.

With that in mind, I am going to say something controversial here: I do not think the first-round pick should be off the table *in the right move.*

There should be lottery conditions attached to it. It should only be for a player that fits for multiple seasons. Do not trade that pick for a rental. That would be outrageously stupid. But keep something in mind here: If the Penguins do end up as a playoff team, that first-round pick is going to be in the back half of the round. The Penguins still have that Winnipeg Jets second-round draft pick that is very likely to be very high in the second-round. At that point the difference between, let’s say, pick No. 22-25, and perhaps pick No. 34, is not overly significant. You also still have plenty of assets to potentially move up from that spot high in the second-round if you needed or wanted.

Even thinking about moving that pick is obviously only something you do for somebody in their early-mid-20s, and somebody that is a high level player. That is a difficult trade to find, and chances are you will not find it, but it is definitely something to keep an eye out for given where the team is, where the pick could end up being. and what you still have to work with in terms of assets. This is why stockpiling assets the way Dubas has is so important. It gives you flexibility. It gives you options. The Penguins certainly have a lot of them. This will be fascinating to watch.