Quinn Hughes’ trade value, the Devils’ assets and why the Canucks have options

The noise around Quinn Hughes’ uncertain future with the Vancouver Canucks is becoming louder.

On Saturday, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported that the New Jersey Devils and Canucks had a conversation about Quinn Hughes. Friedman stressed that he doesn’t believe a move is imminent and doesn’t know how far along those trade discussions are.

The report itself shouldn’t come as a shocker. Devils general manager Tom Fitzgerald wouldn’t be doing his job properly if he weren’t inquiring about Hughes, especially because the Canucks signalled they were ready to begin selling players earlier this week.

An important (and obvious) caveat is that it would only make sense for the Canucks to seriously entertain Hughes trade talks if they’re certain he’s not willing to re-sign with the organization. Vancouver’s captain has a year and a half left on a six-year deal he signed in 2021 and isn’t even eligible to sign an extension until July 1.

There are plenty of reasons for Canucks fans to be nervous about Hughes’ decision. Vancouver doesn’t have a realistic pathway to contending for the Stanley Cup anytime soon; Canucks president Jim Rutherford has openly discussed the possibility that Hughes could leave to play with his brothers, Jack and Luke; and Hughes has been non-committal anytime he’s been asked about his future.

What’s important to keep in mind, though, is that the Canucks have more leverage than outsiders may think, even if Hughes reaches a point where he signals that he isn’t willing to re-sign with them. If the Devils believe they can acquire Hughes for a low-ball package because “Quinn wants to play with his brothers and the Canucks can’t afford to lose him for nothing,” they’d be mistaken.

Hughes has zero trade protection under his contract. The Canucks, if it ever gets to the point where they’re forced to trade Hughes, could have as many as 30 other suitors besides New Jersey. There’d be no obligation for the Canucks to trade him to a preferred destination; Vancouver’s only priority would be to maximize his trade value for the franchise’s future.

You might be wondering: Why would other teams make massive offers for Hughes if they also wouldn’t know if he’d re-sign with them long-term?

Hughes, with a year and a half remaining on a steal of a $7.85 million cap hit, would still be an enormously valuable commodity. Plus, as we’ll break down later, whoever owns Hughes’ rights this summer has a better chance of retaining him long-term anyway, because they can offer him significantly more money than he’d be able to make elsewhere due to the changing CBA rules.

At last year’s trade deadline, Brock Nelson fetched the New York Islanders a first-round pick, an A-grade centre prospect in Calum Ritchie (The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler ranked Ritchie 31st best among prospects already drafted to NHL teams last summer, slotting him in the same “Tier 3” as the likes of Simon Nemec, Brady Martin, Jimmy Snuggerud, Anton Silyaev and Tij Iginla, among others), and a third-round pick. New York got the equivalent of two first-round picks and a third-rounder for 33-year-old Nelson as a rental last year.

Hughes, widely regarded as the second-best defenceman in the NHL, is obviously a far better player than Nelson. If Hughes were dealt at the 2027 trade deadline as a rental, he could be worth two first-round picks (especially because at least one of them would presumably be a late first) and a prospect. That may sound excessive for a rental, but it’s a similar total value (even though the pieces were NHL-ready rather than strictly futures) to what the Hurricanes paid for Mikko Rantanen as a pending UFA.

If that’s what Hughes is likely worth to a buyer for just a few months as a rental, what would teams pay to have him under control for 18 months and two playoff runs? More importantly, Hughes’ immense trade value as a rental in 2027 gives potential buyers even more incentive to make aggressive offers this season, since they have insurance in case he doesn’t want to re-sign with them long-term.

Take the Detroit Red Wings, for example. Detroit could pay a hefty price for Hughes now, and as arguably a top-10 player in the NHL, he’d almost singlehandedly turn the Red Wings into a playoff-calibre team. The Red Wings could break their nine-year postseason drought and generate millions of extra playoff revenue for ownership this year.

Then in the summer, Detroit would have a strong pitch to re-sign Hughes — without even considering that he spends his summers in Michigan, is friends with Dylan Larkin and that the Red Wings would have a legitimately bright contention window if they added Hughes — simply because the club would be wielding a huge financial edge over all other teams.

As former Florida Panthers assistant general manager Steve Werier pointed out, there’s a window through Sept. 15, 2026, where players can sign extensions under the old CBA rules. Crucially, that would allow the team holding Hughes’ rights this coming summer to offer him an eight-year extension, whereas the new CBA will only allow a max term of seven years for extensions. Right off the bat, that’s an extra $15 million of guaranteed money that Detroit could offer next summer in this hypothetical scenario. And suppose Hughes wanted to hit unrestricted free agency on July 1, 2027, and sign with the Devils (or any other team). In that case, he’d only be eligible to sign for a maximum of six years because he’d be signing with a new team rather than extending.

In other words, Detroit (in this hypothetical scenario where it traded for Hughes) could offer Hughes an extra $30 million or so of guaranteed money in the summer of 2026 than he’d get from the Devils, or any other team, if he became a UFA in 2027. That doesn’t even include all the signing-bonus perks the old CBA offers compared to the new one (the new one restricts how much of the contract value can be paid out in signing bonuses and how front-loaded they can be).

If you’re Detroit, you’d probably feel you have a legitimate shot at re-signing Hughes long-term, given all those factors. And in a worst-case scenario, where he doesn’t want to stay despite your best pitch? You could wait until the 2027 trade deadline and still recoup a massive haul for Hughes.

Stanley Cup contenders like Carolina, without an obvious tie or connection to Hughes, would probably see the appeal in making a strong proposal to the Canucks. With Hughes, Carolina would be the heavy favourite to win the Eastern Conference (especially with Florida banged up this year). The Hurricanes could leverage the aforementioned financial edge to try to keep Hughes long-term in the summer of 2026, and if it doesn’t work, they could ship him elsewhere for a massive haul, having at least benefited from one playoff run from him this season.

With these dynamics in mind — the significantly higher total dollars you could offer Hughes on a long-term extension this coming summer if you own his rights and the insurance of still being able to flip him to another team for a massive haul if your pitch doesn’t work — the Canucks will attract a bidding war if they make their captain available this season. Therefore, the Devils can’t back the Canucks into a corner leverage-wise in potential trade talks.

Do the Devils have the assets the Canucks would want if they were forced to trade Hughes?

The Devils are in a fairly asset-rich position. New Jersey owns all of its first- and second-round picks for the next three seasons. Simon Nemec and Dawson Mercer are young, established NHL players with upside (before Canucks fans start asking about them, there’s no chance that Jesper Bratt or Nico Hischier would be available). The Devils also have a couple of stud blue line prospects, including Anton Silayev, a 6-foot-7 Russian defenceman drafted No. 10 in 2024, and undersized offensive defender Seamus Casey.

New Jersey can combine some of these pieces to make a competitive offer if the Canucks are ever forced to trade Hughes. However, would the Devils have the right centrepiece to make their proposal truly stand out compared to other teams?

Nemec, for example, is a fascinating case study. The right-shot defender is the player most commonly mentioned in mock trade proposals for Hughes. On the surface, you’d think Nemec would be an appealing fit for Vancouver because he’s having a breakout year and could be a top-four defenceman for a very long time. The fit may not be as seamless as people think, though.

First, do the Canucks, who have Filip Hronek signed long-term and Tom Willander, the No. 11 pick from 2023 who’s already in the NHL, view right defence as an area of organizational strength? And if so, would they want the best player in a Hughes return to be a centre rather than a right-shot defender? If the Canucks prioritize a young centre in a Hughes return, a team like Detroit that could offer Marco Kasper or Nate Danielson would have a more attractive proposal than New Jersey. Mercer can play centre in a pinch, but he’s been far more effective as a winger in the NHL.

Secondly, I’ve watched Nemec play quite a bit this year, and while his smooth, slick play with the puck has been impressive (15 points in 29 games), he’s been unreliable defensively. Nemec is prone to big mistakes in his own end and can often be caught way out of position.

The Devils have controlled just 43.2 percent of expected goals during Nemec’s five-on-five shifts this year, which is the worst mark among the team’s defencemen, in large part because of his rough defensive metrics. This is translating on the scoreboard too; Nemec has been on the ice for 3.16 goals against per 60 this season.

All of this is happening despite Nemec playing the most sheltered matchups of all Devils defencemen, according to colleague Dom Luszczyszyn’s quality of competition data. What if Nemec has a Tyson Barrie-like career as a top-four defender who can score points and move pucks but struggles defensively and needs to be sheltered rather than becoming a top-pair workhorse?

Nemec is 21, so there’s plenty of runway for him to improve. However, my point is just that his long-term projection as a player is probably more uncertain than his flashy point totals and ice time would indicate. There’s even a chance his early point totals this season are inflated because he’s riding a 14.3 percent shooting clip, which isn’t sustainable for defencemen.

The cap logistics aren’t perfect, either. New Jersey is pressed against the salary-cap ceiling right now and already has about $37 million invested on the blue line. New Jersey’s crowded back end already features six defenders who make at least $3.4 million against the cap, which includes two $9 million AAV players in Dougie Hamilton and Luke Hughes.

With all this in mind, many Devils fans have been throwing around Hamilton’s name as part of mock proposals. Hamilton has control with a 10-team trade list, though; why would he agree to go to Vancouver? Even if Hamilton was willing to go, why would the Canucks want to take on a 32-year-old on an overpaid $9 million cap hit through 2027-28, when their right side already lacks space with Hronek, Willander and Tyler Myers, unless the Devils paid extra sweeteners?

By no means am I trying to suggest that the Devils are an awkward or unrealistic fit for Hughes. It’s just that the fit from an assets and cap perspective may not be as perfect as people imagine.

Overall, the Canucks will still hold significant leverage if Hughes expresses a desire to leave Vancouver at some point this season. It obviously wouldn’t be enough to “win” a Hughes trade, but navigated correctly, it could land them the kind of haul that would brighten the future.