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Nearly $2.3 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire today, placing crypto markets at a critical inflection point as traders prepare for a potential volatility reset.
With positioning heavily concentrated around key strike levels, price action into and immediately after expiry could be driven less by fundamentals and more by mechanical hedging flows.
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$2.3 Billion Crypto Options Expiry Puts Bitcoin and Ethereum at a Volatility Crossroads
Bitcoin accounts for the bulk of the notional value, with approximately $1.94 billion in BTC options rolling off.
Ahead of the expiry, Bitcoin is trading for $89,746, below its $92,000 max pain level, the price at which the greatest number of options contracts expire worthless.
Total open interest stands at 21,657 contracts, split between 11,944 calls and 9,713 puts, resulting in a put-to-call ratio of 0.81.
The skew suggests a modest bullish bias, though not an extreme one, leaving room for two-way volatility.
Meanwhile, Ethereum options make up the remaining $347.7 million in notional value. ETH is trading around $2,958, well below its $3,200 max pain level.
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Open interest is significantly larger in absolute terms, with 117,513 contracts outstanding, comprising 63,796 calls and 53,717 puts. This produces a put-to-call ratio of 0.84. As with Bitcoin, positioning points to cautious optimism, though meaningful downside protection remains in place.
Notably, however, this week’s expiring options are slightly lower than the nearly $3 billion that rolled off last week.
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Deribit Flags Strike Clustering as Macro Risks Keep Volatility Elevated
According to analysts at Deribit, the clustering of open interest near major strikes is likely to heighten short-term price sensitivity.
“Expiry positioning is tightly clustered around key strikes, keeping spot sensitive into the cut. Geopolitics and trade policy uncertainty remain the macro backdrop, supporting hedging demand and keeping vol reactive. Watch strike magnets, dealer hedging flows, and post expiry vol repricing,” they wrote.
That dynamic reflects a broader environment in which macro risks continue to dominate trader psychology.
Ongoing geopolitical tensions, shifting trade policies, and uncertainty around global monetary conditions have pushed investors to rely more on hedging options than on outright directional bets.
This has kept implied volatility (IV) elevated and reactive, even during periods of relatively stable spot prices.
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Heading into expiry, so-called “strike magnets” can exert a gravitational pull on prices as dealers adjust hedges to remain delta-neutral.
If spot prices drift closer to max pain levels, hedging flows can reinforce the move. Conversely, a sharp deviation away from key strikes can trigger rapid repositioning, amplifying volatility rather than suppressing it.
Once the contracts expire, attention is likely to shift to how volatility reprices heading into the weekend. A large expiry can release pent-up gamma exposure, sometimes leading to sharper post-expiry moves as the market recalibrates.
Accordingly, Bitcoin and Ethereum traders could witness a renewed directional push. This could either be a relief rally if selling pressure fades, or a downside move if macro fears reassert themselves.
With positioning dense, macro risks unresolved, and technical levels clearly defined, today’s expiring options may prove to be more about setting the tone for the next leg in BTC and ETH markets.