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In summary: Expanding profit margins are expected to turn modest revenue growth into double-digit earnings growth, which should drive stock prices higher. The magnitude of those price gains will depend on whether or not valuations stay high.
Below is a roundup of 13 of these 2026 targets, including highlights from the strategists’ commentary.
BofA: 7,100, $310 (as of Nov. 26): “Multiple expansion and earnings growth both pushed the S&P 500 up 15% this year. In 2026, earnings will do the liſt (we forecast 14% growth, or $310) with about 10pt PE contraction. 7100 implies ~5% price return. In 2025, policy uncertainty stymied broadening, and guidance remained muted. But from here, bonus depreciation should pull forward capex, corporate guidance is 2 to 1 bullish, and sentiment is far from euphoric. Liquidity is full blast today, but the direction of travel is likely less, not more — less buybacks, more capex, less central bank cuts than last year, and a Fed cutting only if growth is weak.”
Societe Generale: 7,300, $310 (as of Nov. 26): “Fed rate cuts are unfinished business. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) has front-loaded stimulus, profit margins are widening beyond Tech, and corporate activity is expanding. AI-driven capex is accelerating, and borrowing is up, but leverage remains in check overall. Bottom line: The backdrop is positive for US assets — it’s too early to call the bull run over.”
Barclays: 7,400, $305 (as of Nov. 19): “1) The AI story keeps rolling, despite recent volatility sparked by capex and financing concerns, as compute demand continues to scale and monetization grows to encapsulate paid users, ads, and enterprise/agents; 2) Fed cuts are constructive for valuations, especially for cyclical/growth equities; 3) easier financial conditions support healthy deal activity; 4) worst is likely past on the tariff front, while US fiscal profile has improved YTD + modest boost from OBBBA; 5) US ‘26 GDP likely sluggish vs. LT trend but better than most DMs, while US equities continue to lead RoW in EPS growth, margin expansion and revisions.”
CFRA: 7,400 (as of Nov. 24): “Despite favorable GDP and EPS forecasts, 2026 should be volatile, since it is a mid-term election year, especially since a ‘wave’ is at stake (single-party control of the executive and legislative branches). Therefore, as we approach the new year, we advise investors to remain invested but vigilant, focusing on higher quality growth companies.”
UBS: 7,500, $309 (as of Nov. 10): “[E]arnings expectations and valuations are among the highest in four decades. Industry and style performance suggests an imminent broadening and strengthening of growth. We see that happening but only from Q2 2026, with a speed bump up first as tariffs worsen the growth-inflation mix temporarily. The market should consolidate and high-quality stocks should outperform. From late Q1, we should see a broadening of the rally into lower-quality cyclicals. Base case, we see the S&P500 rising to 7,500 in ‘26 driven by ~14% earnings growth, nearly half of that from Tech. The contribution from valuation is likely to be a small negative.”
HSBC: 7,500, $300 (as of Nov. 24): “…suggesting another year of double-digit gains mirroring the late 1990s equity boom. Back then, like today, tech is leading, return concentration is high, and a new technology is promising to be transformational. We expect equities to remain supported by the AI-led capex boom. Our colleagues have weighed in on the question: Are we in a bubble? Bubble or not — history shows that rallies can last for quite some time (3-5 years in the dot com/housing boom), so we see more to come and recommend a broadening of the AI trade.”
JPMorgan: 7,500, $315 (as of Nov. 25): “Despite AI bubble and valuation concerns, we see current elevated multiples correctly anticipating above-trend earnings growth, an AI capex boom, rising shareholder payouts, and easier fiscal and monetary policies. Also, the earnings benefit tied to deregulation and broadening AI-related productivity gains remain underappreciated.”
Yardeni: 7,700, $310 (as of Nov. 25): “We expect that 2026 will be just another year of the Roaring 2020s, which remains our base-case scenario.”
RBC: 7,750, $311 (as of Dec. 1): “Investor sentiment may have more room to fall in the near term, but is already at levels sending a contrarian buy signal over the longer term. … Expectations for solid EPS growth plus some modest valuation tailwinds from lower rates can offset the valuation headwinds from uncomfortable inflation in the year ahead. … Bonds shouldn’t scare investors away from stocks. … The anticipated GDP backdrop is a bit of a drag on our stock market forecast. … Fighting the Fed doesn’t make sense.”
Morgan Stanley: 7,800, $317 (as of Nov. 17): “The capitulation around Liberation Day marked the end of a three-year rolling recession and the start of a rolling recovery. We believe that we’re in the midst of a new bull market and earnings cycle, especially for many of the lagging areas of the index. We think that most of the elements of a classic early-cycle environment are with us today — compressed cost structures that set the stage for positive operating leverage, a historic rebound in earnings revisions breadth, and pent-up demand across wide swaths of the market/economy that were mired in the preceding rolling recession.”
Wells Fargo: 7,800, $310 (as of Nov. 21): “Our target is driven by our PRSM framework (Profits, Rates, Sentiment, Macro). Profits: +14% YoY for 2026E EPS and +13% for 2027E; Rates: negative due to tight liquidity, but we expect a Fed boost; Sentiment: contrarian Buy signal triggered (SPX +7.5% N3M on avg. & 90% hit rate); Macro: turned positive for the first time since Jan 2025. The overall PRSM score of 0.2 implies +12% return over N12M.”
Deutsche Bank: 8,000, $320 (as of Nov. 26): “In 2026, we see robust earnings growth and equity valuations remaining elevated. We expect a pickup in earnings growth in 2026 to 14% (from 10% in 2025), taking S&P 500 EPS to $320. Corporate cost-cutting and the labor market remain risks, but for administration policies we expect checks and balances in the run-up to the mid-term elections. At 25x, the S&P 500 trailing multiple is well above the historical average (15.3x) but easily explained by favorable drivers: higher payout ratios, higher perceived trend earnings growth, fewer large drawdowns in earnings, and inflation below its long-run average.”
Capital Economics: 8,000 (as of Nov. 19): “[W]e suspect that the near-term risks are more about perceived demand for AI, or whether capex is excessive. Our forecast for the S&P 500 to rise to 8,000 by end-2026 implicitly assumes that valuations will rise a lot further before the bubble, if there is one, bursts.”
Most of the equity strategists TKer follows produce incredibly rigorous, high-quality research that reflects a deep understanding of what drives markets. Consequently, the most valuable things these pros have to offer have little to do with one-year targets. This is what we mostly cover at TKer. (And in my years of interacting with many of these folks, at least a few of them don’t care for the exercise of publishing one-year targets. They do it because it’s asked of them or it’s popular with clients.)
So first off, don’t dismiss a strategist’s work just because their one-year target is off the mark.
Second, I’ll repeat what I always say when discussing short-term forecasts for the stock market:
⚠️ It’s incredibly difficult to predict with any accuracy where the stock market will be in a year. In addition to the countless number of variables to consider, there are also the totally unpredictable developments that occur along the way.
Strategists will often revise their targets as new information comes in. In fact, some of the numbers you see above represent revisions from prior forecasts.
For most of y’all, it’s probably ill-advised to overhaul your entire investment strategy based on a one-year stock market forecast.
Nevertheless, it can be fun to follow these targets. It helps you get a sense of the various Wall Street firms’ level of bullishness or bearishness.
I think RBC’s Lori Calvasina said it best: The price target “should be viewed as a compass as opposed to a GPS. It is a construct that helps to articulate whether we believe stocks will move higher and why.”