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The Athletics made Luis Severino the highest-paid player in franchise history last winter. The first season of his three-year, $67MM free agent contract was mixed at best. The veteran righty had a poor first half, allowing a 5.16 ERA over 20 starts. He was at the center of controversy in late June after he bemoaned pitching at Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park in a conversation with The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty.
Those comments reportedly didn’t sit well with A’s brass. There was speculation that the team would try to move Severino before the deadline, but his contract and poor performance made that easier said than done. Severino rebuilt some value with a better showing after the All-Star Break. He concluded the season with a 3.10 ERA over his final nine appearances. He struck out a solid 21.8% of opponents while holding them to a .226/.289/.333 batting line over that stretch.
Aside from a three-week injured list stint due to an oblique strain, the second half performance was what the A’s front office had in mind when they signed Severino. As they enter another offseason that’ll be focused on pitching, they seem less inclined to move him than they had been a few months ago. Will Sammon and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic write that the A’s are not interested in trading Severino in a pure salary dump. While they’re not taking him off the table in talks, it seems they’re demanding a legitimate return on top of another club taking his contract off the books.
Severino is still owed a $5MM signing bonus, which will be paid next January 15. (The A’s would be responsible for that even if they traded him within the next month.) He’ll make a $20MM salary next year and has a $22MM player option for the 2027 campaign. It’s a total commitment of two years and $42MM with the possibility that Severino opts out after the first season. He received and rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets last winter, so the A’s would not be able to make him another QO if he retests the market.
It’s not a terrible contract, but it’s also not one that has much upside for the team. Severino is coming off a 4.54 ERA with a below-average 17.6% strikeout rate across 162 2/3 innings overall. There’s been a lot of attention to the three-run gap in his ERA (6.01 vs. 3.02) at home versus on the road. However, Severino’s 17% strikeout rate and unsustainably low .249 average on balls in play during his away starts suggest his road ERA is a bit of a mirage. There’s a much narrower gap in his FIP (4.34 vs. 3.87) in his home/road splits. The overall picture looks like that of a league average starter.
The ideal outcome for the team is that Severino pitches like a #3 starter next season and opts out. He’d only exercise the player option if he pitched poorly enough that he doesn’t feel it’d be smart to walk away from a $22MM salary. Unsurprisingly, it doesn’t appear teams are willing to offer the A’s a strong trade package. Sammon and Rosenthal write that interested clubs would only take on Severino’s contract if they don’t need to give up significant talent.
That doesn’t achieve a whole lot for the A’s, assuming the front office and ownership aren’t shopping him solely because of his criticism of the temporary stadium arrangement. Severino and Jeffrey Springs are their only returning starters who topped 100 innings. The rotation had a 4.85 ERA overall, the fourth-highest mark in MLB. Rookies Jacob Lopez and Luis Morales showed promise, but starting pitching remains the team’s biggest need. That’s particularly true given how hitter-friendly the Sacramento park plays — putting a greater toll on the A’s young arms. They may face similar challenges to last offseason in convincing free agent starters to sign there.
Severino, Springs, Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler are the only players on guaranteed deals. They have one of the lightest arbitration classes in MLB. RosterResource projects their luxury tax number around $105MM, which was their reported target last winter to avoid a revenue sharing grievance. Their actual payroll estimate sits at roughly $75MM. That’s also right around where they opened the ’25 campaign. In addition to their rotation need, they’re aiming to add a high-leverage reliever and could pursue second and/or third base help.