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- Bitcoin adoption could rise “200 times” if global retirement savers allocate even modestly, Tom Lee said.
- Lee predicts the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle is ending.
- Tokenization and Ethereum’s growing role will define 2025.
Crypto strategist Tom Lee said Bitcoin adoption could rise as much as “200 times” from current levels and predicted that the long-established four-year cycle in Bitcoin’s price action is set to break.
The bullish crypto figurehead argued that the digital asset market is approaching the end of its recent downturn despite weak performance.
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Tom Lee Says Bitcoin Has Room to Grow
Speaking at Binance Blockchain Week, Lee said only “4.4 million Bitcoin wallets… have more than $10,000,” compared with “almost 900 million individuals around the world with more than $10,000 in their retirement accounts.”
He said that if Bitcoin were eventually held across those savings pools, “that’s a 200 times increase in adoption.”
Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, said the sector’s pullback since October contrasted with strength in traditional markets, noting that “gold’s up 61% year-to-date” and the S&P 500 is “up almost 20%.”
Lee said pessimism had risen across the market, describing it as “a rough run since October” and noting that “a lot of people… are ready to throw in the towel.”
Despite this, he said he believes “the best years are still ahead.”
Four-Year Cycle No More
During his presentation, Lee argued that Bitcoin’s widely watched four-year cycle is no longer a reliable framework for the market.
He said the next several weeks could mark a departure from that historical rhythm.
Lee told the audience that he believes “we’re going to shatter the Bitcoin four-year cycle.”
He also noted that recent market behavior has differed sharply from past cycles, pointing to Bitcoin’s advance earlier in the year before a sharp reversal.
“Crypto was up 36% until Oct. 10, and then it’s gone straight down,” he said.
According to Lee, the downturn has been driven less by cyclical halving dynamics and more by market structure.
“I personally think it has a lot to do with de-leveraging,” he said, comparing the current environment to the period after the collapse of FTX.
Tokenization Will Define 2025
Lee told the crowd that tokenization will define 2025 , saying financial institutions intend to move a broad range of assets onto blockchain infrastructure.
He said that if real estate is included, “financial products today… [are] almost a quadrillion dollars” that Wall Street wants to put on-chain.
Stablecoins, he said, had served as Ethereum’s “ChatGPT moment” by showing institutions that “if you just tokenize the dollar, you can make a lot of money.”
He described tokenization as a priority for major firms and noted BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF had become one of its “top five highest generating” fee products.
Reviewing the past decade, Lee said an investor could have “tripled” their money in the S&P 500 and “quadrupled” it in gold — while Bitcoin returned “112x” and Ethereum delivered “almost a 500 times return.”
Crypto-Native Platforms Surging
Lee also highlighted emerging crypto-native platforms that have begun influencing traditional markets.
He said prediction market Polymarket had produced “so much information” that at Fundstrat it had become “the closest thing to a crystal ball.”
Talking to the crowd, Lee added that Tether had become one of the “top 10 most profitable banks in the world,” describing it as a “crypto native, singular line, monoline business.”
Lee said Ethereum would play a central role in the next phase of market development, calling it “the future of finance” and “central casting for the tokenization of the future.”
Risk-Reward Strong Despite Pullback
In separate comments this week, Lee said core blockchain activity continues to strengthen despite the recent sell-off.
Writing on X, he said, “crypto prices have fallen relentlessly even as fundamentals, measured by wallets, on-chain, fees or tokenization, have moved forward.”
He added that, in his view, “risk/reward is attractive for Bitcoin and Ethereum.”
Lee’s remarks followed an earlier assessment from Fundstrat Managing Director Mark Newton, who said the recent pullback had created a constructive setup for buyers.
“If you have a two-month window, I think crypto is a great risk-reward here. I think we are going to be higher between now and the middle part of January, even the early part of February,” Newton said.
He cautioned, however, that the near-term outlook remained uncertain ahead of the December Federal Reserve meeting.
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