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The fertilizer price index is expected to ease in 2026 and 2027 after rising 20 percent this year. Urea prices are projected to jump 30 percent in 2025 amid tighter markets, then decline by 7 percent in 2026 and 9 percent in 2027 as new capacity comes online in East Asia and the Middle East. Upside risks include slower capacity additions, renewed trade restrictions, and higher natural gas prices. Over the longer term, nitrogen fertilizers face structural supply challenges due to their high carbon footprint, which could accelerate a shift toward lower-emission alternatives such as biofertilizers, organic amendments, and regenerative farming technologies. DAP prices are expected to rise 26 percent in 2025 before falling 8 percent in 2026 and again in 2027 as supply pressures ease; the forecast assumes Russia continues diverting exports from Europe to Brazil and India, though further restrictions, supply disruptions, or spikes in ammonia or gas prices could push prices higher. MOP prices are projected to increase 19 percent in 2025 on firm demand, followed by moderate declines in 2026 and 2027, with a key downside risk being faster-than-expected growth in Belarusian exports through alternative routes.