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By Andy McCullough, Sam Blum, and Zack Meisel
Cubs get: RHP Edward Cabrera
Marlins get: OF Owen Caissie, SS Cristian Hernandez and 3B/1B Edgardo De Leon
Andy McCullough
Cubs: B
Marlins: B+
It’s an interesting deal in that both teams are making mid-stakes gambles. For the Cubs: Can Cabrera stay healthy? For the Fish: Can Caissie make enough big-league contact? I favor Miami’s side, if only because I’m just a pessimist about pitchers.
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Cabrera profiles as closer to a No. 4 starter than a No. 2 starter, and he has dealt with injuries to his shoulder and his elbow in recent years. But in a market where two years of Adrian Houser costs $22 million and one year of Dustin May costs $12.5 million, the Cubs are betting that Cabrera can post every fifth or sixth day and maintain the command improvements he made in 2025. We’ll see how it goes.
Miami may view last season as the high watermark for Cabrera, who had posted a 4.59 ERA and 4.55 FIP across 2023 and 2024. It is possible they are wrong about his trajectory. Still, things often go sideways for pitchers, as the club has experienced while monitoring the market for Sandy Alcantara the past 12 months. So, to get Caissie, a fringe top-100 prospect heading into 2025 who has clubbed Triple-A pitching the past two seasons, feels like a solid return. Caissie is the obvious headliner: Hernandez, a 22-year-old infielder, did not hit much the past two seasons at High-A South Bend, and De Leon, an 18-year-old outfielder, has yet to make his debut stateside.
Caissie can demolish the baseball, but struck out fairly often in the International League and struggled during a big-league cameo this past summer. Even so, he is only 23, and four seasons removed from playing high school baseball in Canada. He’s improved on the bases and in the field since being drafted back in 2020, and the Marlins do love the chance to optimize a player.
Sam Blum
Cubs: B+
Marlins: A-
The Cubs had already built one of the best and most stable rotations in baseball last season — with a 3.83 starter ERA ranking as one of the best in the sport. This trade leans into and bolsters that strength.
Cabrera is under team control through 2028. Acquiring the right-hander helps the Cubs in 2026 and sets Chicago up with an exit ramp in the long term, with pitchers like Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Matthew Boyd and Colin Rea set to hit free agency over the next 1 to 2 years.
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Cabrera has some red flags in his underlying metrics, particularly his penchant for allowing hard contact. Despite improvements, he’s still below league average with his walk rate, and throws a poor sinker that generates whiffs on just 9.6 percent of swings. It was lit up to the tune of a .373 opponent batting average last year.
Still, he is coming off a career season, where he was worth 2.8 bWAR, threw a career-high in innings, and posted a career-best 3.13 K/BB ratio. His changeup and curveball are two of the more valuable pitches in the game.
At age 27, he might be hitting his stride. And he’ll fit nicely in a rotation chock full of pitchers coming off career seasons — and is set to add back their former ace, Justin Steele, who should return from Tommy John surgery mid-season.
Giving up Caissie is a steep price. And the Marlins have already made teams pay in trading for big-league-ready outfield talent. Kyle Stowers, acquired from Baltimore, was an All-Star last season. And Jakob Marsee, traded by the Padres, put up 1.9 WAR in 55 games.
Caissie could make the Cubs regret this eventually. But for now, Chicago should be pleased with its formidable rotation.
Zack Meisel
Cubs: B+
Marlins: B+
A year after their pursuit of a Marlins starter with top-end stuff fizzled because of shaky medical records (Jesús Luzardo), the Cubs landed another with top-end stuff but a history of injury concerns. There’s a lot to like about Cabrera, though, from his 94-mph changeup to his devastating curveball and slider to his improved walk rate and, perhaps more than anything, his three years of team control. So, Chicago’s front office has cemented its rotation as a strength.
Now, what about that lineup? The Cubs ranked fifth in the league in runs, sixth in home runs and sixth in wRC+. They had a deep, balanced group. To acquire Cabrera, they relinquished Caissie, the logical choice to replace Kyle Tucker. (A Miami outfield of Caissie, Stowers and Marsee could be a ton of fun for a long time, by the way, especially if Caissie can keep trimming his strikeout rate.)
Sure, the Cubs could cover for Tucker’s absence with a committee, some combination of Moisés Ballesteros, Kevin Alcántara and Tyler Austin. But it feels like they need one more potent, middle-of-the-order option. Cabrera is projected to earn a mere $3.7 million in arbitration, so the Cubs bolstered their rotation without inflating the payroll. That ought to leave them wiggle room to scoop up a free agent in the Alex Bregman/Bo Bichette/Cody Bellinger tier. Then, this Cabrera trade will look twice as savvy.