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China remains a dominant force in the global economy, but its economy faces significant headwinds. The country’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, a common economic activity measure, once in double digits during the 2000s, slowed to 4.8% (year-over year) in 2025’s third quarter.1 China continues to serve as a major global trading partner, the size of its economy ranking second in the world only to the United States.2
President Donald Trump’s administration reframed U.S.-China trade relations by imposing escalating tariffs on Chinese imports. After several rounds of negotiations, the two countries reached a one-year trade agreement on November 1, stabilizing trade relations into 2026. The U.S. reduced certain tariffs, while China resumed regular purchases of U.S. soybeans and paused rare earth export controls.
China’s freight activity to the U.S. has slowed
China modernized its economy in the 1980s, quickly emerging as a global economic power by leveraging a skilled labor pool, infrastructure investments, and low-cost production. Exports fueled China’s economic rise, leading to rapid middle-class growth. Entering 2025, the U.S. was the largest customer for Chinese goods.3
Today, the Trump administration’s push to reduce Chinese imports could negatively impact China’s economy. “China hopes it can replace U.S. business by stepping up exports to other countries,” says Rob Haworth, senior investment strategy director with U.S. Bank Asset Management Group. IN 2025, China increased total exports, with gains in Asia, Africa, Europe and Latin America offsetting slower exports to the U.S.4