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Key Takeaways
- Tom Lee sees Bitcoin breaking historical patterns.
- Ethereum’s upside hinges on its ratio to Bitcoin, he said.
- Lee’s bullish forecasts have fueled backlash from Peter Schiff.
Fundstrat co-founder and Bitmine chairman Tom Lee has begun the new year with what may be his most bullish outlook yet, predicting that Bitcoin (BTC) could climb as high as $250,000 in 2026 and that Ethereum (ETH) could post similarly dramatic gains.
Speaking in recent CNBC interviews and shareholder communications, Lee argued that traditional crypto market cycles may be breaking down, a shift he believes could unlock extraordinary upside for Ethereum and Bitcoin.
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Bullish on Bitcoin
Lee said Bitcoin’s next major rally could defy its long-established four-year halving cycle, which has historically been followed by steep drawdowns.
“In 2026, if Bitcoin gets to $200,000 or $250,000, it would be breaking the four-year cycle,” Lee said on CNBC’s Squawk Box.
“So that’s sort of part of our view.”
Under the classic cycle framework, Lee acknowledged that Bitcoin “should be down this year,” but said recent developments have materially altered the outlook.
“I think there are tailwinds that are building,” he said, adding that leverage in the system was largely reset after a sharp market shock in October.
“Part of it is that we kind of reset leverage on Oct. 10 with that big shock,” Lee said.
He pointed to ongoing institutional adoption, Wall Street’s continued development of blockchain-based products, and what he described as growing U.S. government support as key drivers that could propel Bitcoin higher.
Lee also addressed concerns that Bitcoin has lagged gold and silver during recent rallies in precious metals.
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“It does look like gold rallies typically lead Bitcoin rallies,” he said. “So I think it’s been healthy for gold to rally… with monetary easing, those are things that are supportive of crypto to follow.”
In addition, Lee said certain macro indicators have historically aligned with Bitcoin rallies, even if the relationships are not widely understood.
“For whatever hard-to-explain reason, we found that the copper-to-gold price ratio, when that rises, coincides with Bitcoin rallying,” he said.
“And we also found that the ISM, as it moves from below 50 to its peak, has coincided with Bitcoin entering its sort of rally stage.”
Ethereum to $250,000?
Lee has been equally bullish on Ethereum, arguing that its performance relative to Bitcoin could ultimately drive substantial upside.
“This is why we think the price ratio of Ethereum to Bitcoin is really the most important to watch,” Lee said in a recent message to Bitmine shareholders.
Under Bitmine’s base-case scenario of Bitcoin reaching $250,000, Lee outlined a range of potential Ethereum outcomes depending on how that ratio evolves.
“If Bitcoin gets to $250,000, which is our view, and Ethereum trades at its eight-year average ratio, that’s $12,000 Ethereum,” he said. “If it gets to the 2021 high, that’s $22,000 Ethereum.”
Lee said he bases his long-term conviction on Ethereum’s role in what he sees as the future financial system.
“We believe Ethereum is the future of finance,” he said. “It’s going to be a payment rail.”
In more aggressive scenarios, Lee suggested Ethereum’s valuation could climb far higher.
“If Bitcoin gets to a million, that would value ETH at $250,000,” he said.
Pushback From Critics
Lee’s latest forecasts have drawn sharp criticism, most notably from long-time Bitcoin skeptic Peter Schiff.
Schiff dismissed Lee’s argument that rising gold prices are bullish for Bitcoin, arguing that the two assets have historically competed rather than moved together.
“CNBC’s favorite Bitcoin shill claims a rising gold price is bullish for Bitcoin,” Schiff wrote on X .
“But Bitcoin thrived when gold traded sideways, allowing it to steal gold’s thunder as the ‘better’ inflation hedge and safe haven. Gold’s recent breakout destroys that false narrative.”
In a separate post, Schiff argued that Bitcoin’s recent rebound reflected speculative momentum rather than improving fundamentals.
“Bitcoin has been caught up in the Venezuela-inspired rally. It’s back above $94,500,” he wrote.
“Don’t believe the hype. Just take advantage of the rally to sell and use the proceeds to buy real gold instead.”
Gold, Silver and Crypto
Despite the criticism, Lee has reiterated that recent strength in precious metals supports a constructive outlook for digital assets.
Pointing to silver’s sharp gains over the past month and gold’s strong rise over the past year, Lee questioned whether skepticism toward crypto remains justified.
“If these large commodity markets make such a move, how can one be skeptical of digital assets in 2026?” he wrote.
The comments prompted further backlash on X, where some users cited Lee’s previous forecasts.
One urged him to “stick to equities,” while another said Lee had previously argued Bitcoin and Ethereum would not fall further shortly before prices declined.
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