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After a turbulent end to 2025, that has left bitcoin (BTC-USD) swinging between optimism and caution, will the world’s largest cryptocurrency sink back toward $50,000 or push to new highs above $125,000 (£93,655) in 2026? With monetary policy, liquidity, regulation, and institutional demand all in flux, analysts say the answer may depend on how these forces unfold quarter by quarter next year.
Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum Bank, believes the opening months of 2026 could be broadly supportive for bitcoin (BTC-USD), driven by improving macro conditions and easing fear across crypto markets.
“Overall, we see various fundamental, sentiment and regulatory drivers that from a historical perspective should be supportive for bitcoin (BTC-USD) over the next 6–9 months,” Dori told Yahoo Finance UK, while stressing that the timing of these forces remains uncertain.
He points to signs of an accelerating business cycle, with purchasing managers’ indices improving and liquidity conditions easing as quantitative tightening ends and US Treasury account balances normalise. At the same time, Dori expects sentiment in crypto markets to stabilise after the end of 2025’s period of heightened fear, encouraging greater activity across trading, staking, and decentralised finance.
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“If crypto markets remain stable, concerns of the four-year cycle repeating itself decline, further improving sentiment,” he said, adding that progress on US regulation, particularly the potential passage of the Clarity Act, could also bolster confidence.
Still, he cautioned that risks remain, noting that a potential US government shutdown could trigger short-term volatility.
The Clarity Act is a proposed piece of US legislation aimed at defining which digital assets fall under securities laws and which are treated as commodities, reducing long-standing regulatory ambiguity for crypto firms and investors. Supporters argue it would provide clearer rules for exchanges, issuers, and decentralised protocols, potentially accelerating institutional adoption if passed.
However, the range of possible outcomes for bitcoin (BTC-USD) in 2026 is already drawing starkly different forecasts. Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone has warned that a sharp reversal remains on the table, suggesting bitcoin could fall back toward $50,000 alongside a broader normalisation across risk assets.
In a post on X, McGlone framed the outlook in relative terms, writing: “Normal Reversion May Get $50,000 Bitcoin, 5,000 Beta, Bitcoin heading toward $50,000…” His view reflects a broader thesis that shifting macro dynamics, including a possible deflationary adjustment in equities relative to hard assets, could weigh on both stocks and digital assets, even as longer-term adoption trends remain intact.
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Bitfinex analysts expect a market consolidation in the digital asset sector in the early months of 2026, rather than a decisive breakout, describing Q1 2026 as a period in which markets digest late-2025 volatility.
“Q1 2026 is likely to be a consolidation phase for bitcoin (BTC-USD) as markets digest late 2025 volatility and rebalance portfolios,” Bitfinex analysts told Yahoo Finance UK, adding that while price action may remain range-bound, underlying liquidity conditions should gradually improve.
They highlight refinancing as an underappreciated tailwind, arguing that lower or stable policy rates could free up cash flow for governments and companies, easing financial conditions without the need for fresh stimulus.
Looking into the second quarter, both Sygnum and Bitfinex see scope for renewed upside if macro conditions cooperate. Dori expects risk appetite to remain supported if the business cycle continues to accelerate and liquidity improves further, potentially aided by regulatory changes affecting US banks’ reserve and leverage requirements.
He also suggests that a change in leadership at the Federal Reserve could matter for bitcoin’s (BTC-USD) appeal as a store of value. Compared with Jerome Powell, a new Fed chair may place greater emphasis on maximum employment over price stability, a shift Dori believes could increase bitcoin’s attractiveness.
Kevin Hassett, former White House economic adviser, is a frontrunner to potentially replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair in 2026. Hassett is known for favouring lower interest rates, a policy tilt that could improve liquidity and bolster bitcoin (BTC-USD) demand.
Bitfinex analysts are more explicit about the potential for upside in Q2. “Q2 2026 could mark a return of upside momentum,” they said, noting that institutional capital often re-engages after first-quarter positioning adjustments, particularly if exchange-traded product flows remain steady.
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If inflation stays anchored and real yields trend lower, they argue, bitcoin (BTC-USD) has historically benefited from improved liquidity and portfolio reallocation away from cash and fixed income.
Not all analysts are uniformly optimistic. Aurélie Barthere, principal research analyst at Nansen, sees a more complex picture emerging around mid-year. She expects political considerations to influence monetary policy, with the labour market potentially becoming a bigger concern than inflation.
“I see a few drivers for 2026 for the bitcoin (BTC-USD) price,” Barthere told Yahoo Finance UK. “I think Kevin Hassett or a politically aligned Fed Chair will be nominated, which will tweak the committee towards rate cuts.”
However, she warned of a key risk: “Bull steepening and long-end yields rise if inflation and the economy re-accelerate while the Fed cuts. This is usually bearish for bitcoin (BTC-USD).”
If long-term interest rates rise while the Fed cuts short-term rates, it can make safer investments like bonds more attractive than riskier assets such as bitcoin (BTC-USD). Combined with a faster-growing economy, this dynamic usually puts downward pressure on bitcoin’s price.
The third quarter is widely seen as a potential source of turbulence. Dori flags uncertainty around US mid-term elections as a likely driver of increased volatility, while Bitfinex analysts expect more uneven price action if bitcoin (BTC-USD) has already rallied earlier in the year.
“Q3 2026 is likely to be more uneven,” Bitfinex said, citing seasonally weaker liquidity and the possibility of renewed fiscal uncertainty. Still, they believe any pullbacks would be corrective rather than structural, assuming policy rates remain stable and debt servicing conditions stay manageable.
Barthere also highlights regulatory timing as a swing factor. While she sees bipartisan support for the Clarity Act, she cautions that delays linked to the pre-midterm election period could weigh on sentiment. At the same time, bitcoin’s (BTC-USD) correlation with technology stocks could prove problematic if AI-related valuations struggle to move higher.
“I could see a situation where bitcoin (BTC-USD) goes lower because of the tech trade and delayed regulations,” she said, before adding that a recovery could follow as rate cuts take hold in a moderately accelerating economy.
Historically, the final quarter has often been favourable for crypto assets, and several analysts expect that pattern to reassert itself. Dori notes that the outcome of the US mid-term elections is likely to influence market dynamics, while Bitfinex points to improving liquidity and portfolio reallocation toward year-end.
“Q4 2026 offers potential for renewed strength,” Bitfinex analysts said, arguing that if rates remain lower and refinancing continues to ease balance-sheet pressure, bitcoin (BTC-USD) could see another leg higher, driven by steady institutional allocation rather than excessive leverage.
Separate research from Copper suggests even more ambitious upside scenarios. The firm’s latest analysis argues that bitcoin’s (BTC-USD) traditional four-year cycle has not disappeared but has been replaced by what it calls “cost-basis return cycles” in the era of spot ETFs.
Commenting on the research, Fadi Aboualfa, head of research at Copper, said: “If the four-year cycle is dead, what replaces it? We see the rise of cost-basis return cycles.”
He explained that since spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) launched, bitcoin (BTC-USD) has repeatedly pulled back to ETF investors’ cost basis before rebounding sharply. “With bitcoin now trading near its $84,000 cost basis, that pattern points to a move north of $140,000 in the next 180 days,” Aboualfa said, adding that prior cycles imply a potential target range of $138,000 to $148,000.
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