Blognalysis: Why I Heart The Jeff McNeil Trade

This post was originally published on this site.

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As Jeff McNeil’s name was bandied about in trade talks throughout November and December, the idea of him being the A’s target for 2B drew mixed reviews on AN.

Certainly there are reasons for being measured in one’s enthusiasm: Turning 34 on April 8th, McNeil cannot boast that he has been a recent visitor to the fountain of youth. He is currently recovering from surgery to relieve thoracic outlet syndrome, which sounds like a cheap place to purchase dinosaurs but has also derailed a few pitchers’ careers.

But for me the positives far outweigh the negatives and I think the A’s wound up making an excellent deal. Here is my laundry list of reasons the McNeil trade gets the Blogfather’s “kick-a$$ seal of approval”…

McNeil ticks off many boxes at once in terms of filling the A’s needs. He is a left-handed batter who makes a ton of contact (11.9% K rate both in 2025 and for his career) in a lineup with a 5 right-handed batters (Rooker, Muncy, Clarke, Langeliers, Wilson), the first 3 of whom figure to strike out a fair share. He provides solid 2B defense (+18 OAA career) up the middle for a team whose 2B/SS metrics were terrible in 2025.

2025 First Half

If you’re wondering how much McNeil has in the tank, consider that he is supposed to be fully recovered from the TOS surgery come spring training, and the injury sapped his effectiveness as a hitter in 2025’s second half. The first half of the 2025 season offers a glimpse of where McNeil is/was as a hitter when healthy.

The numbers say McNeil was still an excellent hitter: at the All-Star break, he was batting .253/.341/.465, 123 wRC+. The A’s certainly can hope that he simply picks up where he left off in April-July.

Acceptable Losses

Yordan Rodriguez is a solid prospect but he has yet to advance past Rookie ball. You have to give up something to get something and if the extent of the prospect capital was a 17 year old with 15.1 DSL innings under his belt that’s not too painful.

Meanwhile, with the Mets paying a chunk of McNeil’s salary the A’s are only on the hook for $10M in 2026 payroll, with McNeil’s 2027 being a club option ($15.5M) over which the A’s have full control.

All in all, in losing a good but 17 year old pitching prospect and absorbing $10M in salary, the A’s came out very well on the “money/talent out” portion to get a legitimate starting 2Bman, solving their weakest position on the diamond.

Every Day Player

It’s worth noting that among McNeil’s strengths is that he has relatively small platoon splits, making him someone you can pencil in every day at 2B without reservation. He is above average against both LHPs and RHPs for his career:

vs. RHP: .284/.350/.446, 121 wRC+

vs. LHP: .282/.353/.382, 109 wRC+

Notably, while the slugging dips strongly against southpaws the OBP is remarkably steady: you can count on him to reach base at around a .350 clip no matter who is pitching. The batting average is also a constant and both are excellent.

Last season the A’s trotted out 2Bmen who sturggled to hit .200, had OBPs under .300, and in aggregate offered below average defense. Suddenly they have a .280/.350 hitter against both LHPs and RHPs whose defense is above average.

WAR: What Is It Good For?

It’s hard to upgrade your WAR by as much as 3.0 at any position but that’s what the A’s project to do. Their 2Bmen combined for -1.5 WAR in 2025 while McNeil’s projection is for +1.5 WAR. Even better would be the 2.1 WAR McNeil accrued just last season, injury and all, or the 2.4 he was good for in 2023.

In fact, McNeil has been over 2.0 WAR in 5 of his seasons so the A’s might well be getting a 3.5+ WAR boost on a $10M deal for the price of a teenage prospect.

Color me pleased.