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The price of bitcoin could surge past $170,000 in 2026 if the Federal Reserve loses control of the economy and reverts to aggressive stimulus, according to CoinShares’ latest outlook report.
The digital asset manager outlined three macro scenarios for next year. These included bitcoin price targets ranging from a low of $70,000 in a stagflation environment to highs above $170,000 if recession forces the Fed into panic-mode easing, according to the CoinShares Digital Assets 2026 Outlook report.
The base case scenario projects bitcoin trading between $110,000 and $140,000 in a slower economic expansion, according to the report. This path assumes subdued growth, sticky inflation, and cautious Fed rate cuts that keep real yields positive.
CoinShares analysts wrote that this environment would make bitcoin behave as a high-beta macro asset. In that case, its trajectory depends on flows, positioning, and Fed expectations.
The bull case sees bitcoin climbing above $150,000 if inflation declines steadily and AI-related productivity gains allow the Fed to cut rates more decisively, according to the report. Lower real yields and improved financial conditions would support risk assets in this scenario.
Bitcoin Faces Downside Risk
The bear case splits into two outcomes, according to CoinShares. In a recession where the Fed cannot respond quickly enough, bitcoin could fall initially. However, it could then rebound past $170,000 as investors interpret aggressive easing as the Fed losing control.
The more challenging scenario is stagflation, where weak growth combines with rising inflation, according to the report. The Fed would stay tight and real yields would rise. Bitcoin could drop to the $70,000–$100,000 range with pressure from ETF outflows.
Investors looking to position for these scenarios can access bitcoin and ether futures exposure through the CoinShares Bitcoin & Ether ETF (BTF), which holds $14.5 million in assets. The actively managed fund posted $913,570 in net inflows over the past month, according to ETF Database.
BTF invests in CME bitcoin and ether futures contracts. It also invests in treasuries, corporate bonds, and cash rather than holding the digital assets directly. The fund charges a 1.25% expense ratio and launched in October 2021.
CoinShares noted that beyond 2026’s cyclical dynamics, the gradual decline in dollar reserve dominance provides a longer-term structural tailwind for the cryptocurrency as central banks diversify away from single-currency dependence.
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For more news, information, and strategy, visit the CoinShares Crypto ETF Hub.