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Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR)—the company formerly known as MicroStrategy and now widely treated by markets as a “Bitcoin proxy”—finished Thursday, December 18, 2025 in the red, then ticked higher in early after-hours trading as investors weighed a familiar mix of drivers: Bitcoin’s pullback into the mid‑$80,000s, ongoing debate over dilution and financing costs, and a looming index-policy decision that could reshape passive-fund demand in 2026.
After the closing bell, MSTR traded at about $159.45 (+0.76%) in delayed after-hours quotes at 5:07 p.m. ET, after ending the regular session at $158.24. [1]
During Thursday’s regular session, MSTR was volatile—trading roughly between $157.47 and $169.45—before closing down about 1.4% on the day.
Below is what mattered after the bell on 12/18/2025—and the key things to know before the U.S. stock market opens tomorrow, Friday, December 19, 2025.
What happened to Strategy (MSTR) after the bell on Dec. 18, 2025
The after-hours move was modest, but it came against a backdrop of elevated sensitivity to crypto price action:
- Bitcoin was down on the day and trading around $85,577 in late trading, after an intraday range that dipped into the mid‑$84,000s and topped near $89,000.
- Strategy’s equity often amplifies Bitcoin’s swings because the firm holds a very large BTC position and frequently finances additional purchases through capital markets.
That combination can create a tug-of-war late in the day: equity traders react to both Bitcoin’s spot move and any shifting expectations around Strategy’s ability to keep accumulating BTC without taking on increasingly expensive financing or aggressive dilution.
The big story investors focused on today: Bitcoin slipped—and Strategy’s “buying power” is under scrutiny
A major theme in today’s coverage was the question of whether Strategy can keep buying Bitcoin at the pace the market had grown accustomed to—especially if the stock price stays pressured.
Investor’s Business Daily reported Thursday that Bitcoin fell back below $86,000 even as Strategy had recently spent $1.94 billion over two weeks to buy more than 20,000 BTC—a dynamic that fed concerns that the company’s buying is not providing the kind of upward “signal” some bulls expect. The same report noted MSTR was down more than 9% this week and described the stock as at its lowest level since September 2024. [2]
The piece also highlighted a key point for equity investors: Strategy has increasingly relied on issuing common and preferred stock even when MSTR’s price is weaker, which can make each incremental dollar of Bitcoin accumulation more expensive (and more dilutive). [3]
The most important “hard” datapoint: Strategy’s latest Bitcoin purchase and ATM financing details
When investors argue about Strategy, they often end up back at the company’s own disclosure—because the stock’s valuation debate frequently hinges on how much BTC it holds, what it paid, and how it funded the purchases.
The Bitcoin holdings update (filed with the SEC)
In its Dec. 15, 2025 filing, Strategy disclosed that it acquired 10,645 BTC during the period Dec. 8–Dec. 14 for an aggregate purchase price of $980.3 million, at an average purchase price of $92,098 (inclusive of fees and expenses). As of Dec. 14, Strategy reported total holdings of 671,268 BTC with an aggregate purchase price of approximately $50.33 billion and an average purchase price of $74,972. [4]
How Strategy funded those purchases
That same filing detailed sales under its at‑the‑market (ATM) program across both common and preferred securities during the same week, including 4,789,664 shares of MSTR common stock (net proceeds $888.2 million) as well as sales in multiple preferred series (STRF, STRK, STRD). [5]
For MSTR equity holders, this is the crux of the bull/bear debate:
- Bulls tend to focus on BTC-per-share accumulation and the optionality of a Bitcoin rally.
- Bears tend to focus on dilution, rising fixed obligations (dividends/interest), and what happens if Bitcoin falls or capital markets tighten.
Why the $1.44 billion “USD Reserve” still matters in today’s narrative
One reason investors keep revisiting Strategy’s capital structure is that the firm now has multiple preferred-stock series—some with high stated dividend rates—and it has explicitly discussed building a cash buffer to support those obligations.
In a Dec. 1, 2025 SEC filing, Strategy said it established a $1.44 billion US dollar reserve to support payment of dividends on preferred stock and interest on outstanding debt, and that the reserve was funded using proceeds from sales of MSTR common stock under its ATM program. [6]
IBD’s reporting today framed this reserve as a reassurance move—describing cash set aside to cover dividends for roughly the next 21 months—but also as part of the broader concern: the more expensive the financing stack becomes, the harder it is to keep buying BTC at scale without the stock price cooperating. [7]
Index inclusion is still a live catalyst: Nasdaq 100 now, MSCI next
Nasdaq 100: Strategy stays in (effective changes Dec. 22)
Earlier this week, Reuters reported that Strategy remains in the Nasdaq 100, even as debate continues about whether its business model looks more like a Bitcoin holding vehicle than a traditional tech company. Reuters also noted Nasdaq 100 changes are set to take effect December 22. [8]
MSCI: a bigger “passive flow” question—decision expected by Jan. 15, 2026
Separately, Reuters has reported that MSCI planned to decide by January 15 whether to remove companies whose business model is primarily to buy cryptocurrencies, citing concerns that they resemble investment funds. Strategy has said it is engaging with MSCI on the potential exclusion. [9]
Why it matters for Friday’s open: even though the MSCI date is still weeks away, the market often “front-runs” index and passive-flow narratives. If traders believe passive demand could shrink, it can influence sentiment well before an official decision.
Macro backdrop today: CPI was cooler than expected, but data quality concerns remain
While MSTR is driven heavily by crypto, macro still matters because:
- Bitcoin is sensitive to liquidity and rate expectations.
- Risk appetite across high-volatility equities can swing with inflation and Fed expectations.
On Thursday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that headline CPI rose 2.7% year-over-year in November, with core CPI at 2.6% year-over-year. [10]
Reuters reported the CPI increase was less than expected, boosting rate-cut expectations in some corners of the market—while also emphasizing that a government shutdown created missing data distortions that make the print hard to interpret cleanly. [11]
For MSTR traders, the practical takeaway into Friday is straightforward: if rates expectations ease and risk appetite improves, Bitcoin (and by extension MSTR) can benefit—but conviction may be fragile if investors doubt the reliability of the inflation data.
Wall Street forecasts: high targets, wide disagreement
If you’re looking for “forecast” signals going into tomorrow, the most widely cited set is still analyst price targets—though with MSTR those targets can be unusually dispersed because so much depends on Bitcoin.
MarketWatch’s analyst estimates page lists an average target price around $497.71 and an average recommendation of “Buy” (18 ratings), underscoring that the Street’s aggregated view still leans bullish—despite volatility and controversy. [12]
Other aggregators show similarly high averages and a wide range between low and high targets, which is typical for a stock tied to a volatile underlying asset. [13]
Important context for readers: “average target” can be misleading here, because target methodology varies dramatically:
- Some analysts implicitly model MSTR like a levered Bitcoin exposure vehicle.
- Others focus more on dilution, financing costs, and whether the equity should trade at a premium (or discount) to the company’s BTC holdings.
Earnings timing: don’t confuse “estimated” dates with confirmed dates
Several market calendars currently show Strategy’s next earnings date in early February 2026, but many of these dates are algorithmic estimates rather than confirmed schedules.
Nasdaq’s earnings page lists an estimated earnings report date around 02/04/2026, while also noting that “data is currently not available” in places—an important clue that this is not a finalized company announcement. [14]
Zacks likewise flags February 4, 2026 as the expected next release. [15]
For Friday morning’s setup, earnings are not the immediate catalyst—but the market’s sensitivity to future financing needs means any change in expected reporting timing can sometimes nudge sentiment.
What to know before the stock market opens tomorrow (Friday, Dec. 19, 2025)
Here’s the practical checklist heading into the open—especially for readers tracking MSTR as a Bitcoin-linked equity.
1) Watch Bitcoin first, MSTR second
Because Strategy trades as a high-beta BTC proxy, the most important “overnight headline” is often simply where Bitcoin is trading into the U.S. premarket. As of late Thursday, BTC was around $85.6K.
2) Be aware of Friday’s macro calendar—plus one key scheduling twist
Market calendars show notable items on Friday, Dec. 19, including:
- Existing home sales (Nov.) at 10:00 a.m. ET and scheduled Fed communication (per MarketWatch’s calendar). [16]
- A BEA release scheduled for 10:00 a.m. ET: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, September 2025. [17]
And here’s the twist: the BEA has published schedule updates indicating Personal Income and Outlays (which includes the PCE inflation data many traders watch) has been rescheduled from its original date—meaning some widely circulated third-party calendars may be stale. [18]
3) Dilution and financing headlines can hit at any time
Strategy’s BTC purchases are frequently tied to ATM activity and preferred issuance. Even without a new filing today, the market is trading the likelihood of further issuance—especially if the stock rallies.
The key risk dynamic: a rising MSTR price can make future financing less dilutive, while a falling price can create a reflexive negative loop (more dilution per dollar raised).
4) Index narratives can flare up quickly
With the Nasdaq 100 reconstitution effective Dec. 22 and the MSCI decision expected by Jan. 15, any incremental commentary—especially from index providers, large passive managers, or the company itself—can become a fast-moving catalyst. [19]
5) Know the trading-hours reality for extended sessions
For U.S. equities on Nasdaq, widely referenced market hours put pre-market at 4:00 a.m.–9:30 a.m. ET and after-hours at 4:00 p.m.–8:00 p.m. ET (broker access may vary). [20]
That matters because MSTR’s “Bitcoin sensitivity” often expresses itself first in extended hours—when crypto trades continuously but stock liquidity is thinner.
Bottom line for Friday’s open
Strategy (MSTR) ended Dec. 18 lower and edged up slightly after-hours, but the bigger story hasn’t changed: MSTR is trading at the intersection of Bitcoin volatility, capital markets access, and index eligibility narratives.
Going into the Friday, Dec. 19 open, the highest-impact swing factors are likely to be:
- Bitcoin’s direction into the premarket
- Any fresh signals about Strategy’s ability to finance additional BTC buying without punitive dilution
- Macro risk appetite following Thursday’s CPI surprise and ongoing debate about data distortions [21]
- Any new commentary tied to MSCI/index policy risk [22]
References
1. www.marketwatch.com, 2. www.investors.com, 3. www.investors.com, 4. www.sec.gov, 5. www.sec.gov, 6. www.sec.gov, 7. www.investors.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.bls.gov, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.marketwatch.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.nasdaq.com, 15. www.zacks.com, 16. www.marketwatch.com, 17. www.bea.gov, 18. www.bea.gov, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.nasdaq.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com