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The narrative around Flushing Financial has shifted, with the fair value estimate moving from US$16.00 to US$17.15 as analysts refresh their view of the bank’s earnings power and risk profile. That change, supported by a slightly lower discount rate of 7.75% versus 7.91% and a sharp reset in modeled revenue growth from 30.91% to 9.30%, reflects a more measured but still constructive take on where the stock could reasonably trade. As you read on, keep an eye on how these updated assumptions feed into the story so you can decide how you want to track future changes in the narrative from here.
🐂 Bullish Takeaways
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Keefe Bruyette raised its price target for Flushing Financial by US$2.30, which lines up with the recent increase in the fair value estimate to US$17.15 and points to a more supportive stance on where the stock could trade.
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The higher target suggests Keefe Bruyette is giving the bank credit for its earnings power under the refreshed assumptions, including the updated discount rate and revenue growth outlook that feed into the valuation work described earlier.
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While detailed comments are limited, the target move indicates that, at least for Keefe Bruyette, execution and the current risk profile are being viewed as strong enough to justify a higher valuation anchor.
🐻 Bearish Takeaways
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Keefe Bruyette’s action still implies some caution, as the target change is framed around updated modeling rather than a strong push on growth momentum. This leaves room for reservations on how much upside is already reflected in the refreshed fair value range.
Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives or begin writing your own Narrative!
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OceanFirst Financial Corp. has signed a definitive merger agreement to acquire Flushing Financial Corporation in an all stock transaction valued at approximately US$570 million in OceanFirst common equity. The deal is expected to close in the second quarter of 2026, subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals.
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The merger agreement includes termination fee provisions, where a fee of approximately US$21.4 million could be payable by either Flushing or OceanFirst. Under certain conditions OceanFirst would be required to pay Flushing a termination fee of approximately US$46.3 million.
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For the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025, Flushing Financial Corporation reported net charge offs of US$1.8 million compared to US$4.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2024.
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From October 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025, the company reported no share repurchases and indicated that it has completed the repurchase of 3,192,036 shares, representing 10.74% of shares, for US$65.29 million under the buyback announced on February 27, 2018.
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Fair Value: updated from US$16.00 to US$17.15, representing a modest upward reset in the modeled equity value.
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Discount Rate: moved slightly lower from 7.91% to 7.75%, indicating a small reduction in the required return assumption.
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Revenue Growth: revised from 30.91% to 9.30%, representing a significant pullback in the projected growth rate.
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Net Profit Margin: adjusted from 33.86% to 30.25%, indicating a moderate step down in expected profitability.
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Future P/E: increased from 6.07x to 7.92x, reflecting a higher assumed earnings multiple in the updated model.
Narratives on Simply Wall St let you connect the story you see for a company with the numbers behind it. You set out your view on future revenue, earnings and margins, tie that to a forecast and then to a fair value estimate. Hosted on the Community page, Narratives are easy to follow, update automatically when fresh news or earnings arrive, and help you compare Fair Value to the current share price so you can decide if a stock still fits your plan.
Head over to the Simply Wall St Community and follow the narrative on Flushing Financial to stay on top of how this story is evolving:
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The full narrative, titled “FFIC: Future Returns Will Reflect Revised Earnings Assumptions And Merger Execution Risks”, links catalysts, forecasts and fair value in one place. You can read it here: Flushing Financial Narrative on Simply Wall St.
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It lays out how factors such as non interest bearing deposits, loan repricing, revenue mix and merger execution risks are built into assumptions for revenue, earnings, profit margins and future P/E.
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You can compare that fair value framework to the current share price, stress test the revenue and earnings paths with your own assumptions, and see updates when new information is added.
Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include FFIC.
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