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Assurant’s latest valuation work edges its model fair value to US$259.33 per share, up from US$257.83, reflecting a modestly updated price target built on refreshed sector research after Q3. The fair value move and the slightly higher discount rate are tied to a more refined view of Assurant’s place in the current property and casualty cycle, where analysts see both opportunity and clear areas of caution. Stay tuned to see how you can keep on top of these ongoing price target adjustments and the evolving narrative around the stock.
Stay updated as the Fair Value for Assurant shifts by adding it to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our Community to discover new perspectives on Assurant.
🐂 Bullish Takeaways
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Morgan Stanley lifted its Assurant price target to US$248 from US$232 after updating its insurance models following Q3 reports, signaling that its refreshed work still supports current valuation levels.
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The Equal Weight rating from Morgan Stanley suggests the firm sees Assurant as broadly in line with its coverage group, which some investors may read as a vote of confidence in the company’s execution through the recent property and casualty cycle.
🐻 Bearish Takeaways
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Morgan Stanley highlights a softening property and casualty cycle heading into 2026, which points to potential pressure on returns for insurers and may limit how much upside some analysts are willing to assign to Assurant’s shares.
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The decision to keep an Equal Weight rating, even with a higher price target, signals that Morgan Stanley sees clear areas of caution, including cycle related risks, rather than a straightforward case for a more aggressive valuation.
Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives or begin writing your own Narrative!
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Assurant introduced F&I On Demand, a virtual staffing service that connects auto dealerships with Assurant finance and insurance specialists to help manage financing discussions, protection product presentations, titling, registration, and purchase paperwork. The service aims to operate much like an in house F&I department.
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The F&I On Demand service includes Assurant’s Warranty Insights tool, which draws on the company’s claims history to highlight where manufacturer warranties may leave gaps in areas such as mechanical, cosmetic, tire, and technology coverage. This is intended to give car buyers clearer information at the point of sale.
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Assurant declared a quarterly dividend of US$0.88 per share, with an ex dividend date and record date of December 1, 2025, and payment scheduled for December 29, 2025. This provides investors with a specific upcoming cash distribution to track.
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Fair Value: Model fair value moves slightly from US$257.83 to US$259.33 per share. This points to a modest adjustment in the underlying assumptions rather than a wholesale rethink of the equity story.
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Discount Rate: The discount rate is marginally higher, shifting from 6.956% to 6.978%. This is a small change that can gently weigh on the calculated valuation even as other inputs are refined.
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Revenue Growth: Long run revenue growth remains effectively unchanged at around 4.9963%, with only a very small refinement. The long term top line framework investors see in the model is largely intact.
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Net Profit Margin: The assumed net profit margin edges down from 8.3316% to 8.3194%. This reflects a minor tweak to earnings expectations within the model rather than a broad reset of profitability assumptions.
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Future P/E: The future P/E multiple used in the valuation is slightly higher, moving from 12.49x to 12.59x. This shows a modest shift in how the model is weighing future earnings relative to the updated cash flow inputs.
Narratives on Simply Wall St let you connect the story you see for a company with the numbers you care about. You set a view on future revenue, earnings, and margins, link that to a fair value, then compare it to the current share price to help decide when to buy or sell. Narratives live on the Community page, update automatically when fresh news or earnings land, and are used by millions of investors as an accessible way to keep their thesis in sync with new information.
If you want the full story behind the latest price target work on Assurant, start with the original Community Narrative:
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How analysts tie Assurant’s device protection, AI and automation investments, and global expansion into a single earnings and revenue path, and what that implies for fair value in their model.
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The specific assumptions on revenue growth, margins, earnings by 2028, and the P/E multiple that would need to hold for the US$241 consensus price target to make sense.
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The key risks that could break the thesis, from regulatory pressure on housing products to competition in device protection and changing mobile replacement cycles, and how those might affect future cash flows.
Follow the full Assurant narrative on the Simply Wall St Community here: AIZ: Future Returns Will Balance Capital Returns And A Softer P&C Cycle. Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include AIZ.
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