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00:00 Speaker A
All right, are we calling this a dead cat bounce? I think what a lot of investors, a lot of traders, a lot of hodlers want to know is, when do we see this bottom? Do you think there’s a cycle in play, the four-year cycle?
00:15 Speaker B
Well, if anybody has a crystal ball that works better than mine, they can send it over because I’m not quite sure if this is a dead cat bounce or the bottom. But to me, this does feel like it could be a bottom and there’s a number of reasons for that.
00:30 Speaker B
Technically, a lot of people are looking at the 200 MA on the weekly chart, a line that’s been visited every single time the 50 MA has broken in a bear market. That’s at about 57, 58,000 right now. The monthly 50 MA is there. Yesterday, we saw major capitulation volume, systematic selling all the way down to the close. But today’s volume is actually going to close higher on the buy side than all of yesterday’s sell volume combined.
01:00 Speaker B
And across the board, not just on Bitcoin, across the crypto market, we’re seeing some bullish engulfing candles and beautiful potential bottoms being put in. So, I think that we saw bearish euphoria at a fever pitch yesterday and now we’re probably going to be heading up barring any major black swans. As for the four-year cycle, I’m in the camp that the four-year cycle, uh, is over, if it was ever there in the past.
01:31 Speaker B
We do have one data point for people who believe, which was that the all-time high would come in October, but nothing else about this cycle has looked like the past. There was really no movement across the crypto market beyond Bitcoin or anything that had an ETF. And we had an all-time high way too early because of the approval of the ETFs. Really just doesn’t feel like the same cycles as we had before.
01:55 Speaker A
I and it I that was kind of my thought last year. I was asking a number of guests in 2025, we have the most bullish regulatory drop uh backdrop for Bitcoin or crypto that I think you could ever have and we still saw, you know, things kind of peter out a number of times. I thought the gain should have been bigger given the backdrop. Does Bitcoin, does crypto need a new narrative beyond Web 3 here?
02:26 Speaker B
I don’t think that it needs a new narrative. I think that the best narrative for Bitcoin is always higher prices. Unfortunately, Bitcoin starts to go up…
02:35 Speaker A
I think that’s money.
02:35 Speaker B
Re re retail gets very excited. It it it does, but it’s not very hard to push this market around. Uh to your point about the environment, yes, we have a very favorable legislative environment. We have a very favorable regulatory environment. Obviously the pendulum has swung massively from the contentious environment that we had with the previous administration. But that said, I think all of that was effectively priced in at the moment that Donald Trump was elected. And so it’s not that crazy that prices are now trading back to the same area that they were at that point.
03:17 Speaker B
Also, you know, with the election of Donald Trump, there’s a bit of a push and pull. I think a lot of people are very unhappy and it’s become politically charged that his family and himself are so involved in the industry itself that that has become a bit of a political talking point yet again for the quote unquote anti crypto army. So, I I don’t know what the next catalyst will be, but I do know that Bitcoin is becoming massively institutionalized. You have new news from every single wirehouse, every large institution about their participation in this industry and the unlocks and the the incredible volumes of the ETFs. So, this is one of those times when prices have been beat down, sentiment is low, but there’s crazy fundamental news that should be driving price up and we’re going to look back in a few months and go, wow, those news events were absolutely huge. We should have been paying attention.